Hated Market Bull is not ready to drop dead
Updated Nov 2023
Throughout this enduring bull run, numerous reasons have been cited to predict its demise, and while many of these reasons are valid, predicting market movements doesn’t always translate to financial success on Wall Street. The Federal Reserve, through its unconventional measures, reshaped the rules by injecting money into the markets and fostering an environment conducive to speculation.
What makes this the most detested bull market in history is the apparent lack of logical justification for its longevity. In the aftermath of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, NYSE volume ranged from 8-11 billion, occasionally surging to 12 billion, indicating robust market participation. However, from early 2010 onwards, volume dramatically dwindled, dropping to the 2-3 billion range and even lower some days. This led market technicians and observers to assume that markets couldn’t sustain an upward trend on low volume—a miscalculation that has contributed to the market’s unconventional resilience.”
Navigating the Uncharted: Understanding the New Paradigm in Financial Markets
In this current financial landscape, we find ourselves in a new paradigm. Similar to the U.S. practice of employing shell companies or brokerages to obscure trades domestically, a parallel strategy is implemented in overseas markets. The U.S. government’s intervention played a pivotal role, propping up the market and leading to a drastic drop in volume. Interestingly, the absence of sellers allowed markets to drift steadily upward.
As the narrative unfolded, the corporate world became entangled in this paradigm shift. An orchestrated environment prompted corporations to engage in share buybacks by leveraging low-cost borrowings. This manoeuvre artificially inflated earnings per share (EPS) without substantial efforts to improve the company’s performance or profitability.
Delving into Mass Psychology reveals a sobering truth—the masses often face inevitable losses. The advice echoes: do not blindly follow the crowd, for their path is not necessarily the one to success. As we navigate this uncharted territory, understanding the dynamics of this new paradigm becomes essential for informed decision-making in the financial realm.
Dark Pools could be contributing to this Market Bull
Mass Psychology states that the masses are destined to lose; do not follow the crowd for they will always lead you astray. In between a few minor corrections were allowed to transpire almost all of which took place on ever-lower volume, to create the illusion that there was some semblance of free-market forces at play.
We also have something known as Dark Pools; this essentially allows big companies to purchase large blocks of shares without the trade showing up on the NYSE or any other major exchanges. In essence, it allows the government to manipulate the markets without leaving a footprint. As the US can print as much money as it wants, this is a perfect backdrop to do whatever it wants. By the way, please don’t believe the hogwash that our debt is only 18.9 trillion. There is no fundamental mechanism to check how much money the US creates. Nobody is allowed to audit the Fed’s books.
Market Resilience: A Lesson from the Fed’s Narrative in 2022-2023
The Federal Reserve’s ominous warnings from 2022 to 2023, predicting an impending financial doomsday and signaling an endless cycle of rate hikes, came to an abrupt end in August. Contrary to the fear-inducing narrative, stocks staged a remarkable rally when it became apparent that the Fed’s tightening measures couldn’t persist indefinitely.
The moral of this narrative is clear: seize the opportunity to buy when the masses succumb to panic. Regardless of the grim news, consider entering the market when bearish sentiment is at its peak. Pairing this approach with technical analysis enhances the likelihood of success. How? Simply wait for the market to release a substantial amount of steam, often termed as a crash by experts. When bearish sentiment is soaring, focus on stocks that are trading in the extremely oversold range, especially evident on monthly charts. This strategy, rooted in a combination of timing and analysis, can pave the way for successful investment endeavors.
This video provides another reason as to Why Hated Bull Market could continue to trend higher
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