Tactical Investor: Mass psychology & Tactical Investing

Tactical investingThe Tactical investor is the place where Mass Psychology and Technical analysis converge seamlessly ensuring we are always on the right side of the markets. Emotions and not logic drive the markets. Emotion drives every investment decision. Mass psychology identifies the emotion that’s driving the crowd, and identifying the emotion, we can identify the trend,  which allows us to get into investments just before they take off.

Tactical Investing amounts to combining Technical analysis with Mass psychology  creating a system that is second to none.  The Trend Indicator is an example of such a system. It combines the most important aspects of Mass psychology with the best of Technical analysis to yield a system that identifies the trend in advance of the event. Our technical indicators also enable us to identify crucial turning points in the market accurately.  Over 85% of the plays issued have trended higher.

Tactical Investing amounts to being on the right side of the markets at the right time. To ensure we are always on the right side of the market, we incorporate the four elements (shown in the infographic) into our analysis.    Employing this methodology gives us an advantage very few systems can boast; we can spot trend changes in advance of the event.

Mass psychology & Tactical investing converge seamlessly

The place where Mass Psychology and Technical Analysis Converge harmoniously

Our investment philosophy is very simple, identify the Trend and stick with until it ends. We could list a plethora of reasons as to why you should join our service,  but instead of doing that, we will let our past calls speak for themselves

Strategic investing

Remember polarised people are the easiest individuals to manipulate and deceive. Ultimately, higher rates of polarisation could be very beneficial for the markets. Market Update July 8, 2018

Despite all the drama over the past ten days (since the last update), the markets continued to trend higher, and the Nasdaq is putting in new 52 week highs, so much for the naysayer’s argument that this market was set to crash.  If the Nasdaq is already surging to new highs, it indicates that there is a lot of extra cash sitting on the sidelines.  Because the other indices are not trading at new highs and not all the money is directed towards the Nasdaq.   It also tells us that there is a boatload of hot money waiting to be unleashed into the market; fools generally control hot money, and fools never lead the way up, they always follow.  Market Update June 23, 2018

Oil is rising; the dollar is trending higher, silver is putting in what could turn out to be a very explosive pattern, and the US bond market is issuing mixed signals. It sounds like everything is out of sync, and that’s exactly why it’s not. The bull market is not dead, and the trend is showing no signs of turning negative. In short, if this pattern continues and our indicators on the monthly charts move into the oversold ranges, then Dow 30K  is virtually a done deal. Market Update May 22, 2018

The bull market is not dead that is the most important thing we want everyone to get from this update. If it were dead, we would be making alternative plans.  The best signal that the bull market “is not dead” comes from the number of pending plays; if this bull market were dead, we would have very few plays on this listThe mass mindset is wired to react emotionally, and therefore it’s destined to fail.  Market Update April 30, 2018

 As long as the trend is up, every pullback is a buying opportunity; that’s what you should focus on. Market Update Jan 16, 2018

We believe in the adage that an ounce of prevention is worth pound or several kgs of cure. We focus primarily on Mass psychology; technical analysis plays a secondary role. Mass Psychology is telling us that its time for defensive action.  We are going to opt for safety instead of glory.   Bullish readings indicate the masses are now very happy and to ignore that development would be foolhardy. Market Update Jan 8, 2018

For the first time in almost two years, the bullish sentiment has soared past the 50% mark, and the combined score of the bears and neutrals has dropped below 50%.  This could be the first signal indicating that the markets might experience a correction in the 15% plus ranges in 2018. We will continue to monitor the situation closely.  We are going to be the first ones to tell you that if this comes to pass it’s going to be helluva of buying opportunity.  Market Update Dec 28, 2017

The bitcoin mania will end badly one day; the masses can never win, just remember that. It might sound sad, but that’s not what we focus on, we focus on trends and reality. Market Update Dec 17, 2017

It appears that a new trend in motion is starting to take hold in the sentiment arena; we are witnessing wild swings in sentiment.  This week we have experienced another wild swing; bullish sentiment soared to 44%; it’s quite a big move from the last reading.  We expect this trend to gain momentum going forward. Until the bullish sentiment surges past the 60% mark for several weeks on end, the markets are more likely to correct than crash. Market Update Dec 17, 2017

Tactical Investing Strategies

This whipsaw action we have witnessed for the past few weeks is here to stay; this is the beginning of a new trend. It also suggests that no matter how strong the next correction is; it will prove to be a buying opportunity and not the start of a bear market. No bull market has ended on a note of uncertainty.  Market Update Nov 31, 2017

On the weekly charts, the Nasdaq is still trading in the oversold ranges, so it has room to run up. Market Update Nov 31, 2017

Despite trading in the overbought ranges, the Nasdaq has room to run before it hits the extremely overbought ranges and it is likely to trade in the insanely overbought ranges before it pulls back.    Market update Nov  2, 2017

The combined ratio of bears and Neutrals has dropped below 60% once again, and this marks the 3rd time this has happened this year. Therefore, it’s almost a certainty that the market will experience a strong correction and the likely time frame is within the next six monthsMarket update Nov  2, 2017

 On the weekly timelines, we note that the picture is very bullish. The trend is up, and so even though the MACD’s (Nasdaq) are trading in the overbought ranges on the monthly charts, the path of least resistance is up. Market Update Oct 17, 2017 

A strong reaction from the markets does not necessarily equate to a pullback. The markets could surge upwards; hard to imagine when the markets are so overbought.  However, just because this might be the least expected reaction, this is what might initially occur before the pullback. Market Update  Oct 3, 2017

Stategic investing with mass psychology

We will go on a limb and state that this market will probably not crash until the combined score of the bears and neutrals plunge below 30%.  Market Update Sept 17, 2017

Surprisingly, bullish sentiment dropped 8% this week; bearish sentiment soared by 9%.  39% of the individuals are in the bearish camp and only 27% in the bullish camp.   The markets hardly let out any steam, and the crowd is already in panic mode. What would happen if the Dow had to shed 1000 points; the media which in general seems to be on some very strong cerebrally damaging substance would scream “bloody murder”.  Forget the naysayers; the markets are not going to crash until the sentiment turns bullish. Market Update  Sept 1, 2017

Logic has no place in this market; so focus on the emotional state of the crowd.   Until the masses turn bullish, the very most we can expect from this market is a strong correction which will prove to be a buying opportunity. In the short term, the path of least resistance is still up. Market Update August 18, 2017

  Bearish sentiment is insanely low; in fact, while many want this market to crash, they don’t think it is. They have no conviction. Okay, that would be somewhat fine if the bulls were not adopting a similar stance. The bulls also lack conviction. And with almost no free market forces at play, the path of least resistance is upwards. Market update Aug 1, 2017

Given that markets tend to follow each other, the Nasdaq by default will probably trade deeper into the extremely overbought ranges as it started off late compared to the Dow and SPX. When a market plays catch up, it tends to overshoot to the upsideMarket Update July 21st, 2017

Give the resiliency of this market; the Dow could very easily trade to 22K before it trades to 19K.  Market Update July 6th, 2017. 

One has to wonder why so many experts almost purposely go out of their way to proclaim the next crash will mark the end of everything. Stock market crashes are perfect examples of misdirection; the crowd is directed to fixate on the fear factor and not the opportunity factor. The dumb money always buys close to the top and sells close to the bottom, and the smart money always does the opposite.  Market Update July 6th, 2017

The utilities are in a full bullish mode; they continue to trend higher, and if the alternative Dow theory holds, then it is not possible for the Dow to crash as the utilities would lead the way first.   Therefore a crash appears to be unlikely now, but a correction ranging from mild to strong cannot be ruled out in the future. Market Update June 18, 2017

The Dow appears to have broken through the top of the Channel formation that fell in the 20,800-21,000 ranges. If it closes above 21,300 on a monthly basis then despite the markets being overbought, the Dow could surge past 22K before running into a strong zone of resistance.  Market Update June 18, 2017

Give the resiliency of this market; the Dow could very easily trade to 22K before it trades to 19KMarket Update July 6, 2017

 The markets appear to have gone through a stealth correction over the past few months, several sectors, many of which we covered in this update are trading in the extremely oversold ranges on the monthly charts. This not atypical of an old bull market and implies that the markets might not have to experience a sharp correction.  Market Update March 26, 2017

The masses are getting agitated, and that is always a bloody good signal as far we are concerned. Market Update Jan 31, 2017

Emotions drive everything and psychology is the study of emotions, mass psychology is the study of mass emotions or the mass mindset.  If we had to summarise everything into just one word, we would use the word “polarised”. The world is going to be extremely polarised, and weather patterns are going to be extremely erratic.  Market Update Jan 19, 2017

The stock market has surged to new highs proving all the experts wrong and what we repeatedly stated before Trump won has played out perfectly. Market update Nov 30, 2016

Bank stocks and stocks in the transportation sector are rallying strongly; these two areas alone could power the Dow to 21K, thus if other industries kick in with the same strength, it is possible that the Dow could soar much higher. Over the years we have stated over and over again, that this bull market would rise to levels that would stun even the most ardent of bulls. We believe this has occurred, but as sentiment levels are far from euphoric, the markets are likely to continue marching upwards.  Market update Nov 30, 2016

We would like to state that it now appears that the Dow will trade past 20K and could surge well over 25K. However, let’s focus on 20K and 21K for now. Market Update Nov 6, 2016

All the long-term ingredients are almost in place for the Dow to trade to 21,000 over the next 12-18 months.  Hence, in short, we must whether we like it or not view all pullbacks as buying opportunities.  Market Update August 2, 2016

Our long-term targets have not changed; we still see the Dow trading to 21,000.Market Update Aug 19, 2016

Here is the exact chart predicting Dow 21,000 we sent to our subscribers in August of 2016

People expect the market to crash and hence it won’t. Our trend indicator is positive, and we have not seen a market crash when this indicator is bullish; that’s it. Market Update, June 2, 2016

Our prevailing theme towards the dollar was that all sharp pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities and that outlook continues to hold.  Market Update July 2, 2016. 

The odds of a crash are low.  Markets never crash when the crowd is uncertain, and those in the neutral camp are usually the most confused players out there. We would gladly welcome a substantial pullback. Market Update July 2, 2016. 

Even in a negative rate environment the dollar could hold up well and end up being one of the strongest looking currencies out there.  Market Update June 2, 2016 

 People expect the market to crash as Market sentiment is rather negative and hence it won’t. Our trend indicator is positive, and we have not seen a market crash when this indicator is bullish; that’s it. Market Update June 2, 2016 

 The more likely outcome is for the dollar to test the 92.80-93.00 ranges before trending higher. If 90 is hit, we will jump up in joy.  Market Update May 17, 2016 

 

Tactical Investing; the key to success

Oil is still expected to trade to the $50-$55.00 ranges, with a possible overshoot to $60.00 by year-end. The ride up is expected to be volatile. Market Update May 2, 2016 

There is a theme that states one should sell in May and go away, as we are in a new paradigm, that theme might change to sell in May and be carried away.  As the markets are extremely overbought, the more probable scenario calls for a pullback in April and then a strong summer rally which could take hold as early as May. Market Update April 2, 2016

 We have shown everyone in real time (not some hypothetical matchup) since July of last year that it pays to drink, celebrate, jump in joy or relax when the masses are panicking and to do the opposite when they are euphoric. Panic is a useless emotion. As usual, the masses lapped all the negative headlines and were left holding an empty can. Remember that the mass mindset is very dangerous when it comes to trading the markets.  Life is short, but if you think like a cow, it’s even shorter. Wake up or walk happily to the slaughterhouse. Market Update March 21, 2016

Throughout all this wailing and gnashing of teeth, we have stuck through with the same theme; the larger the pullback, the better the buying opportunity as long as the trend is up and that plan has paid off.  Interim Update March 14, 2016

Oil Appears to have bottomed out in February as projected and now that it is trending higher, one of the so-called negative omens has been removed from the market.  Oil is projected to continue trending higher for the rest of the year; this upward move will be interrupted with rapid corrections. In other words, the ride up is not going to be smooth. Interim Update March 14, 2016

The trend has still not turned positive, and it looks like a test of the lows is still in the works.  The SSEC could probably rally to the 2950-3000 ranges before pulling back again. On a positive note, the trend is dangerously close to moving into the neutral range; this would be a positive development.  Market Update Feb 17, 2016

The SSEC rallied to the 2900 ranges (2928 to be precise) before pulling back.

Notice that the $30.00 price point level has held on a monthly basis. Oil has not closed below this important level on a monthly basis for two months in a row, and this has to be viewed a very bullish development. Our overall view is for crude oil to trend higher with the possibility of trading past the  $55.00  rangesMarket Update Feb 29, 2016

After trading as low as $27.56 oil reversed course and headed higher, it is now in a transition phase; moving from a down trending phase to a bottoming phase.  Oil did not close below $30 on a monthly basis, so the outlook has not changed.  The current bottom has all the signs of a fake bottom, meaning that it is probably a setup for the early bulls.  Oil is likely to test its lows once again before a bottom takes hold.  A bottom could take hold in the month of February.  Market Update Jan 31, 2016

2016 could be a perfect repeat of 2011;  the market sold off strongly, and it looked like the end was near, but turns out that the only people that took a beating were the naysayers proclaiming the world is going to end.    Market Update Jan 16, 2016 

we will stick our necks out even further and state that we expect the Dow to trade to the 18,800-19,000 ranges in 2016; this view will remain valid unless the trend turns negative.  Market update Jan 2, 2016

It felt good to celebrate in the face of panic and brush fear away like a pesky fly.    Always remember, the masters of deception, thrive on fear.  Fear is actually very good if you are not on the receiving end. Once you learn to control this useless emotion, it can help you make a lot of extra money over your lifetime, and it can also help you lead a much better life.  Market Update July 17, 2015

Indeed, the late bulls were skinned alive, and you can still hear their bellows; the bloodletting is not over. The markets (Shanghai Index) will rally for a bit, and then there should be one more down leg, to snap the backs of the semi-strong bulls.  From a long-term perspective, we see nothing to worry about; everything is taking place as envisioned.  The long-term trend is still up.  Wait for some more blood to be spilt on the streets before taking larger bites. Market Update July 17, 2015

Markets usually drop off a slippery cliff of Joy, after the crowd is singing “Kumbaya My love” on the top of their lungs. In this instance, the majority are still yelling “death to the markets” or at least thinking this, and so the markets will head higher. Those ruled by fear must be punished as fear is not real and based on perceptions that are illusory at best. Market Update June 30, 2015

When you think logically and or use old parameters to gauge this market, every single bone in your body probably screams out that this market should crash and burn. That is true, but what is also true is that as nothing is real, logic has no place when it comes to the illusory. Every statistic imaginable has been, is being or will be manipulated to satisfy whatever picture the manipulators want the masses to believe in. The most likely outcome is that the markets will trade higher than anyone expects as long as the trend remains up. Market Update May 31, 2015

The markets have continued to soar higher and higher, much to the surprise of both the bears and the bulls. As we stated in the last update, nothing makes sense when examined from a logical point of view. However, as far as this market is concerned, logic and reality are two traits that will only hamper you and lead to losses.   As the NASDAQ just recently broke a 15-year barrier, it appears to us that the NASDAQ should at least soar another 2000 points if not more. Remember a spring that has been held back for so long (and 15 year is a long time), uncoils with twice the force that held it back.  Market Update May 17, 2015

What we need to focus on is that the underlying theme is “inflate or die”; this means that the currency race to the bottom is on maximum overdrive. In such an environment where the only weapon central bankers have is to flood even more money into an already overextended financial system, every healthy pullback has to be viewed as buying opportunity. Moreover, an extremely strong pullback has to be viewed as a screaming buy. Market Update March 31, 2015

We have infinite reasons and then some as to why this market should crash and burn.   However, the only thing that matters today is not what is going to happen, what has happened or what might happen. The man who controls the money supply (in this case woman) is the one that controls the direction of the market.  All the other stuff well it just makes for good chatter.    Overall, these tools are affirming the trend; therefore, all pullbacks must be viewed as buying opportunities.  Market Update Feb 28, 2015

The monthly trend is issuing a conflicting signal, but our focus is not the monthly trend but the weekly trend.  If the monthly trend does not change, it simply means that the weekly trend is going to turn bearish over the next few months, but until it turns bearish, we will remain bullish.  Market Update Feb 18, 2015

The trend is mixed, some penguins are screaming the market will crash, others are saying it will fly.  We are stating that the trend is not clear, but as it has not turned negative, the outlook favours a move higher and the old highs could be possibly tested.  This will hold true until the weekly trend turns negative; the moment it turns negative we will send out an Interim update.  Market Update Jan 31, 2015

The dollar easily traded past 93.50 and surged to our upper-level targets, when it surged to 95.85 (just a few points shy of 96.00).  As the trend was up we specifically stated that there was nothing stating that the dollar had to pull back and that is why we stated all pullbacks should be treated as buying opportunities.  The weekly trend is still strong so the overall outlook still calls for higher prices.     This means that the euro still has more downside. Market Update Jan 31, 2015

The weekly trend is still positive, but showing signs of being extremely overbought and thus the current pullback is healthy; the same outlook applies to the monthly trend.   As long as the weekly trend does not change, then all pullbacks have to be viewed as buying opportunities, even though we might personally feel otherwise.   We have support in the 2000-2015 ranges and if that is taken out, the SPX will most likely revisit the lows of Dec 2014.    The last update for Dec 2014, sent out Jan 3, 2015

Note we stated that the Chinese markets were also extremely oversold not too long ago and continued to do this for awhile; we were a bit early, but as the saying to the early bird comes the worm to the late bird the bullet.  The Chinese markets started to rally nicely since October of this year and topped out with our markets and should continue to resume their upward trend. One day we see FXI trading past 200 and RSX north of 70.   Market Update Dec 21. 2014

As the weekly trend is still up, and the daily neutral, the markets will/should experience another quick correction. We will not short the markets until the trend turns negative on the long-term time frames (weekly charts).   The trend indicator overrules everything else; thus regardless of the pattern if the trend says something else, we will follow the trend. Market Update Sept 13, 2014

Dow 21,000 predicted in Aug of 2016

Top in the Gold market predicted in 2011 before Market topped out and broke down. Click here for full details 

The demise of the Japanese Yen also predicted in 2011. Click here for the full scoop 

Multi-Year Dollar Rally Predicted as early as May 2011

Euro Top Precisely  Predicted in May 2011. Click here for the full scoop 

Tactical Investor Site Disclaimer

The Tactical Investor does not give individualised market advice. We publish information regarding companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and our reports reflect our sincere opinions. However, they are not intended to be personalised recommendations to buy, hold, or sell securities. Investments in the securities markets, especially options, are speculative and involve substantial risk. Only you can determine what level of risk is appropriate for you. Continue to read the disclaimer in full 

 If one combines the concepts of Mass psychology & Tactical investing the results are usually spectacular. It’s the best way to invest for the long term. 

Privacy Preference Center

    Necessary

    Advertising

    Analytics

    Other