Nov 21, 2025
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Reading the Divergences
What stands out most on TSLA’s monthly chart is the pair of strong negative divergences, each one sharper than the last, and if you intend to short into that setup you should use puts, since they define and strictly limit your downside risk, because every worthwhile strategy begins from the single principle of capital preservation, which is simply another way of saying you build your defence before you ever step out to play offence.
Turning to the underlying business, once you strip away the tariffs most U.S. automakers would be effectively insolvent, with Tesla leading that charge, and its supposed crown jewel, Optimus, now looks primitive beside China’s robotics edge, given that Iron Robot, Unitree, and others have already lapped Tesla’s technology, so that what Tesla really sells today is narrative rather than innovation, and since the laws of gravity apply to markets just as surely as to falling objects, this one looks overdue for a fall.
XPeng IRON Robot
Kungfu Robot
Dancing Robot
TSLA
Tesla is likely to test the 225–240 range before any meaningful bounce, and if broader market pressure continues to build then a drop below 200 would take only minimal effort, all while the robotics threat remains both real and immediate, since a glance at Iron Robot and Unitree shows that they have already leapfrogged Tesla’s Optimus.
The deeper problem is structural, because China does not need to source parts or negotiate for components when it already owns the entire supply chain, which translates directly into lower costs, faster iteration, and complete production sovereignty, so that once that dynamic scales, even Tesla’s robotics division will find itself facing margin compression alongside steadily declining narrative power.
NVDA
As predicted, China struck back, because even a docile mouse fights when cornered, and the U.S. misplayed its hand by cutting chip sales when it could instead have contained China by feeding its demand, so that in trying to restrain a rival it effectively built an adversary, and now that Beijing no longer trusts the West it is mass-producing STEM graduates by the hundreds of thousands while closing the technology gap faster than almost anyone expected.
The Chinese government has reportedly ordered all agencies to remove existing NVIDIA chips and ban their use across government institutions, and its new AI cluster, though power-hungry, reportedly matches NVIDIA’s top-tier performance, a push that its energy policy actively supports through cheap electricity, fresh incentives, and subsidies aimed squarely at domestic AI infrastructure.
On the chart itself NVDA is forming a large negative divergence, and if that pattern completes it could trigger a rapid pullback, with the only real way to invalidate the setup being a rally that stretches on for months, which is possible but unlikely without the stock first releasing some steam.
Shorting NVDA therefore demands both precision and restraint, which is why you should use puts only, since the stock can still climb on residual AI euphoria, and yet once the narrative finally unwinds the inflated orders built on future projections, easy credit, and hype will unwind right along with it.
This is ultimately not a market driven by fundamentals but one built on illusion management, and because irrationality can outlast solvency you should treat every short with genuine respect, so that if you do short you rely on puts to limit your risk and, when you act, consider LEAPS, which buy you time in an environment where short-term options decay fast, ideally reaching for contracts with at least twelve months or more to keep the odds tilted in your favour.
