Tactical Investor: Archives of Past Market Updates

Tactical Investor

Tactical Investor Market Update  Archives

The average trader has a convoluted view of the markets and the world. They are forever willing to bend the definition of risk and opportunity to suit whatever perspective is taking the lead role at the moment.  When prices are low, they assume that it is the wrong time to buy because they are bound to go lower, and when they are soaring upwards, they assume that it is the right time to buy because they are bound to soar even higher. The concept of risk to reward is thrown out of the window; they state they seek an opportunity with low risk, but their actions speak otherwise.  No Bull Market has ever ended on a note of fear; they end when the crowd is in a state of ecstasy.Tactical Investing Market Update Nov 26, 2018 

Ironically, in times of risk, the masses seek to take on more risk as opposed to taking on less risk. The masses beg for the opportunity to buy low and sell high, but when the moment finally arrives (and the risk factor is much lower) they baulk, and their argument is always the same “it is different this time, the market is going to crash, and we need to bail out”. However, they never put forth the same argument when the markets are racing upwards, and analysts all over the place are issuing insane targets such as $1 million (high-end price for Bitcoin, at which point we stated a top was near at hand), and they blindly assume the next stop is the sun or the next galaxy. Instead, the next stop is usually “hell”.   Market Update Nov 26, 2018

Remember polarised people are the easiest individuals to manipulate and deceive. Ultimately, higher rates of polarisation could be very beneficial for the markets. Tactical InvestingMarket Update July 8, 2018

Despite all the drama over the past ten days (since the last update), the markets continued to trend higher, and the Nasdaq is putting in new 52 week highs, so much for the naysayer’s argument that this market was set to crash.  If the Nasdaq is already surging to new highs, it indicates that there is a lot of extra cash sitting on the sidelines.  Because the other indices are not trading at new highs and not all the money is directed towards the Nasdaq.   It also tells us that there is a boatload of hot money waiting to be unleashed into the market; fools generally control hot money, and fools never lead the way up, they always follow.  Market Update June 23, 2018

Oil is rising; the dollar is trending higher, silver is putting in what could turn out to be a very explosive pattern, and the US bond market is issuing mixed signals. It sounds like everything is out of sync, and that’s exactly why it’s not. The bull market is not dead, and the trend is showing no signs of turning negative. In short, if this pattern continues and our indicators on the monthly charts move into the oversold ranges, then Dow 30K  is virtually a done deal. Tactical Investing Market Update May 22, 2018

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The bull market is not dead that is the most important thing we want everyone to get from this update. If it were dead, we would be making alternative plans.  The best signal that the bull market “is not dead” comes from the number of pending plays; if this bull market were dead, we would have very few plays on this listThe mass mindset is wired to react emotionally, and therefore it’s destined to fail.  Market Update April 30, 2018

 As long as the trend is up, every pullback is a buying opportunity; that’s what you should focus on. Market Update Jan 16, 2018

We believe in the adage that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound or several kgs of cure. We focus primarily on Mass psychology; technical analysis plays a secondary role. Mass Psychology is telling us that its time for defensive action.  We are going to opt for safety instead of glory.   Bullish readings indicate the masses are now very happy and to ignore that development would be foolhardy. Market Update Jan 8, 2018

For the first time in almost two years, the bullish sentiment has soared past the 50% mark, and the combined score of the bears and neutrals has dropped below 50%.  This could be the first signal indicating that the markets might experience a correction in the 15% plus ranges in 2018. We will continue to monitor the situation closely.  We are going to be the first ones to tell you that if this comes to pass it’s going to be a helluva of buying opportunity. Tactical Investing Market Update Dec 28, 2017

The bitcoin mania will end badly one day; the masses can never win, just remember that. It might sound sad, but that’s not what we focus on, we focus on trends and reality. Market Update Dec 17, 2017

It appears that a new trend in motion is starting to take hold in the sentiment arena; we are witnessing wild swings in sentiment.  This week we have experienced another wild swing; bullish sentiment soared to 44%; it’s quite a big move from the last reading.  We expect this trend to gain momentum going forward. Until the bullish sentiment surges past the 60% mark for several weeks on end, the markets are more likely to correct than crash. Market Update Dec 17, 2017

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This whipsaw action we have witnessed for the past few weeks is here to stay; this is the beginning of a new trend. It also suggests that no matter how strong the next correction is; it will prove to be a buying opportunity and not the start of a bear market. No bull market has ended on a note of uncertainty.  Market Update Nov 31, 2017

On the weekly charts, the Nasdaq is still trading in the oversold ranges, so it has room to run-up. Tactical Investing Market Update Nov 31, 2017

Despite trading in the overbought ranges, the Nasdaq has room to run before it hits the extremely overbought ranges and it is likely to trade in the insanely overbought ranges before it pulls back.    Market update Nov  2, 2017


The combined ratio of bears and Neutrals has dropped below 60% once again, and this marks the 3rd time this has happened this year. Therefore, it’s almost a certainty that the market will experience a strong correction and the likely time frame is within the next six monthsMarket update Nov  2, 2017

On the weekly timelines, we note that the picture is very bullish. The trend is up, and so even though the MACD’s (Nasdaq) is trading in the overbought ranges on the monthly charts, the path of least resistance is up. Market Update Oct 17, 2017

A strong reaction from the markets does not necessarily equate to a pullback. The markets could surge upwards; hard to imagine when the markets are so overbought.  However, just because this might be the least expected reaction, this is what might initially occur before the pullback. Tactical Investing Market Update  Oct 3, 2017

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We will go on a limb and state that this market will probably not crash until the combined score of the bears and neutrals plunge below 30%.  Market Update Sept 17, 2017

Surprisingly, bullish sentiment dropped 8% this week; bearish sentiment soared by 9%.  39% of the individuals are in the bearish camp and only 27% in the bullish camp.   The markets hardly let out any steam, and the crowd is already in panic mode. What would happen if the Dow had to shed 1000 points; the media which in general seems to be on some very strong cerebrally damaging substance would scream “bloody murder”.  Forget the naysayers; the markets are not going to crash until the sentiment turns bullish. Tactical Investing Market Update  Sept 1, 2017

Logic has no place in this market; so focus on the emotional state of the crowd.   Until the masses turn bullish, the very most we can expect from this market is a strong correction which will prove to be a buying opportunity. In the short term, the path of least resistance is still up. Market Update August 18, 2017

  Bearish sentiment is insanely low; in fact, while many want this market to crash, they don’t think it is. They have no conviction. Okay, that would be somewhat fine if the bulls were not adopting a similar stance. The bulls also lack conviction. And with almost no free market forces at play, the path of least resistance is upwards. Market update Aug 1, 2017

Given that markets tend to follow each other, the Nasdaq by default will probably trade deeper into the extremely overbought ranges as it started off late compared to the Dow and SPX. When a market plays catch up, it tends to overshoot to the upsideMarket Update July 21st, 2017

Give the resiliency of this market; the Dow could very easily trade to 22K before it trades to 19K.  Market Update July 6th, 2017. 

One has to wonder why so many experts almost purposely go out of their way to proclaim the next crash will mark the end of everything. Stock market crashes are perfect examples of misdirection; the crowd is directed to fixate on the fear factor and not the opportunity factor. The dumb money always buys close to the top and sells close to the bottom, and the smart money always does the opposite. Tactical Investing Market Update July 6th, 2017

The utilities are in a full bullish mode; they continue to trend higher, and if the alternative Dow theory holds, then it is not possible for the Dow to crash as the utilities would lead the way first.   Therefore a crash appears to be unlikely now, but a correction ranging from mild to strong cannot be ruled out in the future. Market Update June 18, 2017

The Dow appears to have broken through the top of the Channel formation that fell in the 20,800-21,000 ranges. If it closes above 21,300 on a monthly basis then despite the markets being overbought, the Dow could surge past 22K before running into a strong zone of resistance.  Market Update June 18, 2017

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Give the resiliency of this market; the Dow could very easily trade to 22K before it trades to 19KMarket Update July 6, 2017

The markets appear to have gone through a stealth correction over the past few months, several sectors, many of which we covered in this update are trading in the extremely oversold ranges on the monthly charts. This not atypical of an old bull market and implies that the markets might not have to experience a sharp correction.  Tactical Investing Market Update March 26, 2017

The masses are getting agitated, and that is always a bloody good signal as far we are concerned. Market Update Jan 31, 2017

The stock market has surged to new highs proving all the experts wrong and what we repeatedly stated before Trump won has played out perfectly. Market update Nov 30, 2016

Bank stocks and stocks in the transportation sector are rallying strongly; these two areas alone could power the Dow to 21K, thus if other industries kick in with the same strength, it is possible that the Dow could soar much higher. Over the years we have stated over and over again, that this bull market would rise to levels that would stun even the most ardent of bulls. We believe this has occurred, but as sentiment levels are far from euphoric, the markets are likely to continue marching upwards.  Market update Nov 30, 2016

We would like to state that it now appears that the Dow will trade past 20K and could surge well over 25K. However, let’s focus on 20K and 21K for now. Market Update Nov 6, 2016

All the long-term ingredients are almost in place for the Dow to trade to 21,000 over the next 12-18 months.  Hence, in short, we must whether we like it or not view all pullbacks as buying opportunities.  Tactical Investing Market Update August 2, 2016

Our long-term targets have not changed; we still see the Dow trading to 21,000.Market Update Aug 19, 2016

Here is the exact chart predicting Dow 21,000 we sent to our subscribers in August of 2016

People expect the market to crash and hence it won’t. Our trend indicator is positive, and we have not seen a market crash when this indicator is bullish; that’s it. Market Update, June 2, 2016

The odds of a crash are low.  Markets never crash when the crowd is uncertain, and those in the neutral camp are usually the most confused players out there. We would gladly welcome a substantial pullback.  Tactical Investing Market Update July 2, 2016. 

Even in a negative rate environment the dollar could hold up well and end up being one of the strongest looking currencies out there. People expect the market to crash as Market sentiment is rather negative and hence it won’t. Our trend indicator is positive, and we have not seen a market crash when this indicator is bullish; that’s it. Market Update June 2, 2016 

 The more likely outcome is for the dollar to test the 92.80-93.00 ranges before trending higher. If 90 is hit, we will jump up in joy.  Market Update May 17, 2016 


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Oil is still expected to trade to the $50-$55.00 ranges, with a possible overshoot to $60.00 by year-end. The ride up is expected to be volatile. Market Update May 2, 2016 

 We have shown everyone in real-time (not some hypothetical matchup) since July of last year that it pays to drink, celebrate, jump in joy or relax when the masses are panicking and to do the opposite when they are euphoric. Panic is a useless emotion. As usual, the masses lapped all the negative headlines and were left holding an empty can. Remember that the mass mindset is very dangerous when it comes to trading the markets.  Life is short, but if you think like a cow, it’s even shorter. Wake up or walk happily to the slaughterhouse.  Tactical Investing Market Update March 21, 2016

Oil Appears to have bottomed out in February as projected and now that it is trending higher, one of the so-called negative omens has been removed from the market.  Oil is projected to continue trending higher for the rest of the year; this upward move will be interrupted with rapid corrections. In other words, the ride up is not going to be smooth. Interim Update March 14, 2016

Notice that the $30.00 price point level has held on a monthly basis. Oil has not closed below this important level on a monthly basis for two months in a row, and this has to be viewed as a very bullish development. Our overall view is for crude oil to trend higher with the possibility of trading past the  $55.00  rangesMarket Update Feb 29, 2016

After trading as low as $27.56 oil reversed course and headed higher, it is now in a transition phase; moving from a down-trending phase to a bottoming phase.  Oil did not close below $30 on a monthly basis, so the outlook has not changed.  The current bottom has all the signs of a fake bottom, meaning that it is probably a setup for the early bulls.  Oil is likely to test its lows once again before a bottom takes hold.  A bottom could take hold in the month of February. Tactical Investing Market Update Jan 31, 2016

2016 could be a perfect repeat of 2011;  the market sold off strongly, and it looked like the end was near, but turns out that the only people that took a beating were the naysayers proclaiming the world is going to end.    Market Update Jan 16, 2016 

we will stick our necks out even further and state that we expect the Dow to trade to the 18,800-19,000 ranges in 2016; this view will remain valid unless the trend turns negative.  Market update Jan 2, 2016

It felt good to celebrate in the face of panic and brush fear away like a pesky fly.    Always remember, the masters of deception, thrive on fear.  Fear is actually very good if you are not on the receiving end. Once you learn to control this useless emotion, it can help you make a lot of extra money over your lifetime, and it can also help you lead a much better life.  Market Update July 17, 2015

Indeed, the late bulls were skinned alive, and you can still hear their bellows; the bloodletting is not over. The markets (Shanghai Index) will rally for a bit, and then there should be one more down leg, to snap the backs of the semi-strong bulls.  From a long-term perspective, we see nothing to worry about; everything is taking place as envisioned.  The long-term trend is still up.  Wait for some more blood to be spilt on the streets before taking larger bites. Tactical Investing Market Update July 17, 2015

When you think logically and or use old parameters to gauge this market, every single bone in your body probably screams out that this market should crash and burn. That is true, but what is also true is that as nothing is real, logic has no place when it comes to the illusory. Every statistic imaginable has been, is being or will be manipulated to satisfy whatever picture the manipulators want the masses to believe in. The most likely outcome is that the markets will trade higher than anyone expects as long as the trend remains up. Market Update May 31, 2015

We have infinite reasons and then some as to why this market should crash and burn.   However, the only thing that matters today is not what is going to happen, what has happened or what might happen. The man who controls the money supply (in this case woman) is the one that controls the direction of the market.  All the other stuff well it just makes for good chatter.    Overall, these tools are affirming the trend; therefore, all pullbacks must be viewed as buying opportunities.  Market Update Feb 28, 2015

The dollar easily traded past 93.50 and surged to our upper-level targets, when it surged to 95.85 (just a few points shy of 96.00).  As the trend was up we specifically stated that there was nothing stating that the dollar had to pull back and that is why we stated all pullbacks should be treated as buying opportunities.  The weekly trend is still strong so the overall outlook still calls for higher prices.     This means that the euro still has more downside. Tactical Investing Market Update Jan 31, 2015

The weekly trend is still positive, but showing signs of being extremely overbought and thus the current pullback is healthy; the same outlook applies to the monthly trend.   As long as the weekly trend does not change, then all pullbacks have to be viewed as buying opportunities, even though we might personally feel otherwise.   We have support in the 2000-2015 ranges and if that is taken out, the SPX will most likely revisit the lows of Dec 2014.    The last update for Dec 2014, sent out Jan 3, 2015

Note we stated that the Chinese markets were also extremely oversold not too long ago and continued to do this for a while; we were a bit early, but as the saying to the early bird comes the worm to the late bird the bullet.  The Chinese markets started to rally nicely since October of this year and topped out with our markets and should continue to resume their upward trend. One day we see FXI trading past 200 and RSX north of 70.   Market Update Dec 21. 2014

As the weekly trend is still up, and the daily neutral, the markets will/should experience another quick correction. We will not short the markets until the trend turns negative on the long-term time frames (weekly charts).   The trend indicator overrules everything else; thus regardless of the pattern if the trend says something else, we will follow the trend. Tactical Investing Market Update Sept 13, 2014

Dow 21,000 predicted in Aug of 2016

Top in the Gold market predicted in 2011 before Market topped out and broke down. Click here for full details 

The demise of the Japanese Yen also predicted in 2011. Click here for the full scoop 

Multi-Year Dollar Rally Predicted as early as May 2011

Euro Top Precisely  Predicted in May 2011. Click here for the full scoop 

Past Tactical Investor Stock Market Update Archives

Tactical Investor Past calls 2014 to 2016

Tactical Investor Past calls 2012-2013

Tactical Investor Past calls from 2009-2011 

Tactical Investor Past calls from 2006-2008

Tactical Investor Past calls from 2005-2006