Market Update Tactical Investor Past Calls: The Trend Is Your Friend

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Market Update

 

Market Update Past Calls 2019

To embrace the “trend player” methodology, one needs to clear one’s mind from all the nonsense injected via the Mass media. Secondly, change the way they used to trade, and lastly, they need to understand that it takes time. Depending on how open-minded one is; the average turnaround time falls in the 4-12 week range period.  While this might sound like a long time, consider the amount of time the average person has wasted by listening to these so-called experts who purposely go out of their way to misdirect the public. When viewed in that context, 4-12 weeks is a small price to pay. Remember that nothing good comes easy, and more importantly, this change will be permanent. One will know how to fish instead of always waiting for a handout.  Market Update July 24, 2019

Bitcoin is finally showing strength, it has managed to stay above 3900, and this suggests that a bottom could be in for the year.  There is an active zone of resistance in the 5850-6150 ranges. If it can manage a monthly close above $6150, then it will be in a position to test the 6900-7200 ranges with an overshoot to the 7500-7740 ranges.  Market Update May  7, 2019 

This bull market is unlike any other; before 2009, one could have relied on extensive technical studies to more or less call the top of a market give or take a few months; after 2009, the game plan changed and 99% of these traders/experts failed to factor this into the equation. Technical analysis as a standalone tool would not work as well as did before 2009 and in many cases would lead to a faulty conclusion. Long story short, there are still too many people pessimistic (experts, your average Joes and everything in between) and until they start to embrace this market, most pullbacks ranging from mild to wild will falsely be mistaken for the big one. Market Update Feb 18, 2019

Market Update past calls  2018

The bull market is not dead that is the most important thing we want everyone to get from this update. If it were dead, we would be making alternative plans.  The best signal that the bull market “is not dead” comes from the number of pending plays; if this bull market were dead, we would have very few plays on this listThe mass mindset is wired to react emotionally, and therefore it’s destined to fail.  Market Update April 30, 2018

 As long as the trend is up, every pullback is a buying opportunity; that’s what you should focus on. Market Update Jan 16, 2018

We believe in the adage that an ounce of prevention is worth pound or several kgs of cure. We focus primarily on Mass psychology; technical analysis plays a secondary role. Mass Psychology is telling us that its time for defensive action.  We are going to opt for safety instead of glory.   Bullish readings indicate the masses are now very happy and to ignore that development would be foolhardyMarket Update Jan 8, 2018

Market Update past calls  2017

The bitcoin mania will end badly one day; the masses can never win, just remember that. It might sound sad, but that’s not what we focus on, we focus on trends and realityMarket Update Dec 17, 2017

It appears that a new trend in motion is starting to take hold in the sentiment arena; we are witnessing wild swings in sentiment.  This week we have experienced another wild swing; bullish sentiment soared to 44%; it’s quite a big move from the last reading.  We expect this trend to gain momentum going forward. Until the bullish sentiment surges past the 60% mark for several weeks on end, the markets are more likely to correct than crash. Market Update Dec 17, 2017

Despite trading in the overbought ranges, the Nasdaq has room to run before it hits the extremely overbought ranges and it is likely to trade in the insanely overbought ranges before it pulls back.    Market update Nov  2, 2017

Market Update past calls  2016

We would like to state that it now appears that the Dow will trade past 20K and could surge well over 25K. However, let’s focus on 20K and 21K for now. Market Update Nov 6, 2016

All the long-term ingredients are almost in place for the Dow to trade to 21,000 over the next 12-18 months.  Hence, in short, we must whether we like it or not view all pullbacks as buying opportunities.  Market Update August 2, 2016

Our long-term targets have not changed; we still see the Dow trading to 21,000.Market Update Aug 19, 2016

Here is the exact chart predicting Dow 21,000 we sent to our subscribers in August of 2016

People expect the market to crash and hence it won’t. Our trend indicator is positive, and we have not seen a market crash when this indicator is bullish; that’s it. Market UpdateJune 2, 2016

Past calls  2015

It felt good to celebrate in the face of panic and brush fear away like a pesky fly.    Always remember, the masters of deception, thrive on fear.  Fear is actually very good if you are not on the receiving end. Once you learn to control this useless emotion, it can help you make a lot of extra money over your lifetime, and it can also help you lead a much better life.  Market Update July 17, 2015

Indeed, the late bulls were skinned alive, and you can still hear their bellows; the bloodletting is not over. The markets (Shanghai Index) will rally for a bit, and then there should be one more down leg, to snap the backs of the semi-strong bulls.  From a long-term perspective, we see nothing to worry about; everything is taking place as envisioned.  The long-term trend is still up.  Wait for some more blood to be spilt on the streets before taking larger bites. Market Update July 17, 2015

The dollar easily traded past 93.50 and surged to our upper-level targets, when it surged to 95.85 (just a few points shy of 96.00).  As the trend was up we specifically stated that there was nothing stating that the dollar had to pull back and that is why we stated all pullbacks should be treated as buying opportunities.  The weekly trend is still strong so the overall outlook still calls for higher prices.     This means that the euro still has more downside. Market Update Jan 31, 2015

Market Update past calls 2014

Note we stated that the Chinese markets were also extremely oversold not too long ago and continued to do this for a while; we were a bit early, but as the saying to the early bird comes the worm to the late bird the bullet.  The Chinese markets started to rally nicely since October of this year and topped out with our markets and should continue to resume their upward trend. One day we see FXI trading past 200 and RSX north of 70.   Market Update Dec 21. 2014

As the weekly trend is still up, and the daily neutral, the markets will/should experience another quick correction. We will not short the markets until the trend turns negative on the long-term time frames (weekly charts).   The trend indicator overrules everything else; thus regardless of the pattern if the trend says something else, we will follow the trend. Market Update Sept 13, 2014

Market Predictions  2013

The perception is changing; the masses are now becoming optimistic thus unless the trend changes we can expect the markets to rally even higher. One other thing to understand is that even though the rally in the markets has been artificially induced, the markets have actually recently issued “a true bullish signal.”  What is this signal you ask?

Well, both the Dow and SPX are trading at new highs. A true bull market is not in session until the old highs have been taken out.  9 out of 10 times when this occurs the market rallies significantly from the breakout point; the breakout point, in this case, is roughly 14200 (the old 2008 high).  Market Update Dec 12, 2013

Using trend analysis and a few other tools the targets we come up with will sound outrageous right now.

1st target is for a test of the 19,500-20,000 ranges.

2nd a target is a possible test of the 21,000 ranges. Market Update Dec 12, 2013

 

From a very long-term perspective, it makes sense to start nibbling at FXI and other key Chinese companies such as YZC, BIDU, HNP, ACH, CHL, SNP, GSH, TSL, etc. However, from a midterm perspective, we would like to see some more strength before opening up positions in FXI and some of the above-listed companies.   Market Update September 10, 2013

To reiterate, until the weekly trends change, the longer-term outlook still calls for the SPX to trade higher and thus as mentioned in the last update, it is still possible for it to trade to and past 1700 again.  Sept 10, 2013

Overall, even though we are expecting the markets to go through a tough phase in the 4thquarter, the SPX could still potentially trade above 1700 one more time before experiencing a larger correction.    Market Update Aug 17, 2013

In the last update, we compared the Shanghai Index with our markets, and the differences were striking. A weakening economy (USA) had a stronger market and vice versa.   As stated in the last update from a long-term perspective the Shanghai index is in a bottoming phase.  What this means is that a bottom could take hold soon or the lows (roughly 1800) could be tested again. 

Shanghai Index

There is a relatively strong amount of support at 2,000, and unless it closes below 2000 on a weekly basis, this level of support should hold. In the event, 2000 is breached; the next level of support falls in the 1750-1800 ranges.   There is a very small chance that it could spike down to the 1000 ranges and test an extremely strong zone of support, and in the small chance that this occurs, it would represent a screaming once in a lifetime buying opportunity. Instead of panicking if this ever comes to pass, become greedy and load up.  The support in the 1750-1800 ranges is very strong, so we would need a shock-type event for these levels to be breached.

On the positive side, FXI is already showing some signs of strength, and if this index can close above 2,400 on a weekly basis, it should easily manage to test the 3000-3200 ranges before running into resistance. 

The point is not to focus on the actual bottom, but to understand that this represents a great long-term opportunity.  With that in mind, traders can use FXI as a proxy for this market. Use pullbacks to open positions in FXI.  Later on, when the weekly trend turns positive, we will look towards purchasing calls with the longest available time premium: currently, the time limit is roughly 2 years.     Market Update August 17, 2013

The Trend

 Even though we are expecting a strong correction based on the fact that the SPX neutralized two daily sell signals, the longer-term outlook will remain bullish unless the weekly signal changes. At this moment, the weekly is firmly in the buy territory. Until the weekly, buy is neutralized the outlook is for the SPX to test the 1650-1700 ranges this year.   April 17, 2013

However, there are already indications that the market is going through a topping phase.   Market Update Feb 11, 2013

As the main trend is still up, it means that until a new sell is triggered every strong pullback will prove to be a buying opportunity.  Market Update Feb 11, 2013

The strength of the SPX clearly suggests that for now all strong pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities until a new sell signal is triggered.  Market Update Feb 11, 2013

 It (Yen) did not manage to trade above 128.81 and so continues the trend of putting in lower highs. As long as it does not trade below 124.25, it still has the chance to test the 128.81 ranges. It is now locked in a trading range. The first sign of a stronger correction will be for it to close below 124.25 ranges on a weekly basis or to trade below, it for 3 days in a row. Aug 14, 2012

Longer-term; it (Yen) needs a weekly close below 118.50 to signal that a stronger and more destructive phase is going to take over. Once this occurs, traders can use strong rallies to open up additional long term shorts until the Yen is trading down to 100 or lower. Market Update August 25, 2012

BBC Global 30

This index is most likely going to run into strong resistance relatively soon when it tries to break past the 5800-5900 ranges.  The intermediate-term trend is still strong so after a pullback, this index should rally further, which is in line with our views for the general market; a sharp pullback, then a strong counter-rally and potentially a larger top in March.  If this pattern plays out, the top in March should produce a much stronger correction which could/should take out the Oct 2011 lows.  Market Update Jan 23, 2012

The markets rallied and topped out as expected in March of 2012

In general, one should not focus on any experts prediction. Direct your attention to the trend. Once you identify the trend the rest of the investing process is relatively easy.

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