Market Calls From 2009-2011 - Tactical Investor
Market Calls From 2009-2011

Market Calls From 2009-2011

Gold has still not issued a strong sell signal on the daily or weekly charts, but it’s getting dangerously close to doing so. In terms of our indicators, Gold is now trading in the extremely overbought ranges.   We have never in our trading lives come across a market no matter how strong it appears to be that did not experience several strong corrections during its bullish run-up.  Gold is not going to be the exception to this rule; at the very least it is going to experience a medium to strong correction and or an extended period of consolidation. The Gold bull is not over, but there are strong signs that it’s getting ready to take a break.   Potentially Gold could surge to the 2000 ranges before putting in a top. We suspect that a surge to the 1950-2000 ranges will generate a series of massive negative divergence signals and potentially a very strong sell signal in the process.  Market Update Sept 3, 2011

A few days later Gold traded past 1940 before topping out (the week of September 9, 2011)

Bottom line; now is not a good time to buy any precious metal. We suspect that Silver could trade down to the $25-$30 ranges before a bottom takes hold. At those prices Silver will make for a good buy; if by some chance it should dip to 20 or below it will become a screaming buy.  Aug 26, 2011

The strong reaction from the commodities sector in general clearly suggests that some sort of top is in place. A rebound should be expected over the next 1-2 weeks and investors should use this to close out half their positions in Gold bullion, Palladium bullion and Silver bullion.  Continue trying to get rid of your silver in the $40-45 ranges.  Market Update May 24, 2011

 In the precious metal’s sector we are already witnessing signs of a blow up top. Absolutely, nobody is buying silver at above 40 dollars because they are afraid of inflation. Forget it, the only reason they are jumping in is because they want to speculate. They are mad they missed the ride so far, and they are determined that they are going to get a piece of the action.

Another sign of a blow off top is a market mounting a mediocre pull back and then rallying very strongly from there. This is precisely what took place in the silver and gold markets; they experienced a very tiny pull back and then raced upwards. Market update May 4, 2011

One thing every single person needs to remember is that every single bull market has experienced several strong corrections and at least one incredibly painful correction; there has never been an exception to this rule and there will never be.  Commodities are slowly falling down one by one, it is just a matter of time before oil and precious metals are hit.  Despite the dollar trading to new lows, there are still many signals that continue to validate that the dollar is going to mount a multi month rally. The time frames have moved but the pattern has not turned bearish. Lastly, everyone is harping about the dollar trading to new lows; in reality its July 2008 low is still holding, but many commodities have traded to new all time highs.   This development alone is one of the largest possible positive divergence signals any market can or could ever generate.   Market update May 4, 2011

The Japanese Yen from a very long-term perspective is in a bubble territory. It’s not a question of if but when this bubble will pop.  Thus our advice is to continue accumulating positions in YCS and do not look at them on a weekly basis. Just put it in a draw and look at it maybe once every month.  When this market collapses, it is going to fall very strongly.  Market Update Sept 3, 2011

And  boy oh boy did it completely fall apart

It did not manage to trade above 128.81 and so continues the trend of putting in lower highs. As long as it does not trade below 124.25, it still has the chance to test the 128.81 ranges. It is now locked in a trading range. The first sign of a stronger correction will be for it to close below 124.25 ranges on a weekly basis or to trade below it for 3 days in a row. Aug 14, 2012

Longer term; it needs a weekly close below 118.50 to signal that a stronger and more destructive phase is going to take over. Once this occurs, traders can use strong rallies to open up additional long-term shorts until the Yen is trading down to 100 or lower. Market Update August 25, 2012

 The higher readings below refer to our V indicator (V readings).

  • It is also our opinion that higher readings indicate that the level of market manipulation is increasing. Higher readings correspond to higher levels of market manipulation. Once again, this would explain the Dow’s incredible feat of putting in 11 new highs on pathetic volume, Gold shooting well past 1200, The Japanese Yen index trading almost to 118 and bonds soaring to 141 before pulling back and so forth.

 This phenomenon was 1st revealed last year. In Oct 2008 the Dow bottomed, and then it went to put in the classic head fake where it put in a lower Low in Nov 2008.  In between Oct and Nov 2008, the markets experienced several selling climaxes, VIX soared into record territory, put call ratios spiked, the number of individuals bearish on the market set new records, we had multiple positive divergence signals, several daily buy signals, etc. In essence everything was in place for a turnaround.  The only anomaly was that volatility readings stayed above the 900 mark. The Dow rallied briefly and then took out its Novembers lows. It moved from the oversold, to the very oversold, to the extremely oversold and then finally into the extreme of extremes and just to add a bit more pain it dipped a tad bit more before putting in a bottom at 6469.  It dropped almost 1000 points below its Nov 2008 lows.   Market Update Dec 8, 2009

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Past calls from 2006-2008