Tactical Investor Past calls

Tactical Investor Past calls

Tactical Investor Past calls

Archive of  Market Update Calls 

The trend is still strong and the dollar will continue to rally higher until the trend turns negative; in fact, the pullback to the 81.80-82.00 ranges might or might not occur given the strength of the current move. We would not focus on the level of the pullback now; the only thing to keep in mind is that every strong pullback is a buying opportunity till the trend turns negative.   The opposite holds true for all major currencies. Market Update Sept 13, 2014

If you look at FXI, it has had a nice run since Oct 2013 (the first time we recommended this play to individuals who were willing to invest for the long haul).  It traded as high as 42 before pulling back.  The 40-42 range is a zone of pretty strong resistance so this pullback is to be expected.  The next leg up should propel it past this point and once former resistance becomes support, one can expect the Chinese markets to really take off. When FXI closes above 42 on a monthly basis, it should easily be in a position to test the 50-54 ranges before running into any resistance. We fully expect FXI to eventually trade to new all-time highs and once the current all time is taken out, the path for a move to the 140 plus ranges will be in place.    There are many blue-chip stocks selling at a discount so long-term players can continue opening up positions in these companies. Another very good long-term play is the Russian market. Believe it or not many will look back in shock at their inability to recognize this lovely long-term opportunity. Market Update Sept 13, 2014

No one is really expecting the dollar to rally strongly, and it is usually under such circumstances that the opposite of what the experts expect comes to pass; in this instance that would mean the dollar rallying strongly while many of the major currencies pullback.  This goes against all logic because the USA is printing new money like a turbocharged crack addict, but logic never made anyone much money in the markets; the markets are illogical and even more so now, given the massive level of manipulation (fraud) that is taking place.  Market Update July 28, 2014

Long-term the Chinese markets remain a very good investment.  The Shanghai Index pulled back in almost perfect correlation with the BDI Index (Baltic dry index) and as the BDI has stabilized now and is ticking upwards, the time for long-term entry points is at hand.  Those who are patient should look into opening positions in top Chinese companies that have taken a beating, especially those traded on the NYSE or NASDAQ exchange.   Market Update July 28, 2014

Once again, we have many negative factors that could derail this bull market, but once again, we have to be prudent and understand that the trend is what counts. Roughly 2 years ago, we had a system issue a signal that never failed for almost a 125 years, but guess what it failed for the first time since its inception.   It was not because the signal was flawed or the system had failed; it failed only because the playing field had changed.  The playing field right now is as unbalanced as they come; the room for free market forces to run is so small they might as well not exist. For all intents and purposes, the markets are completely controlled now. In such an environment a new system has to be used, one that takes the current factors into consideration and one that effectively focuses on price action (plus a few key psychological factors.  The trend indicator/system does this and this is why we are going to wait for it to turn bearish before we exit all our long positions and look for a few short positions.  Market Update June 30th, 2014

Once again we are in the same position, the outlook has deteriorated even more, but the trend has still not turned negative and despite the fact that from a logical point of view it would make sense to short the market, we must resist this call for now, as the outlook still calls for another move past 1900.    Market Update May 22, 2014

The dollar is giving pretty strong signals on the longer term charts that a bottom is close at hand while only the Euro appears to have put in a top, the other currencies should be topping out over the next few weeks. Market Update May 22, 2014

The trend is still strong and as of yet shows no signs of weakening, though many technical indicators are starting to flash warning signals. As the trend has not turned negative yet (do not confuse this trend with the one you obtain via plotting trend lines; the trend we speak of is completely different from the one you obtain by drawing simple trend lines), bonds appear poised to test the 137.50 ranges and potentially trade as high as 140.00.   Market Update May 22, 2014

Since the development and full implementation of our trend indicator, despite many so-called signals that the market was weakening or was ripe for a correction, we have continued to view every single pullback as a buying opportunity. The overall projection for the SPX to trade to and beyond 1920 is still valid, with a possible overshoot to 1950.  Even then it does not mean we will short the markets just because these targets have been hit. On the contrary, we will only short once our trend indicator confirms a trend change. Market Update April 28, 2014

 The Dow is still on course to blast upwards to a series of new highs.   The strategy now used by the central bankers and top market manipulators is becoming more psychological in nature. The focus is on altering the perception. Once the perception is altered it does not matter what the reality is for a new alternate reality has been created.  This alternate reality will replace reality and remain valid until the masses manage to break free from its hold.  For months now the Fed has been giving hints that it was going to taper off its $85 billion a month program, but when the markets reacted badly, it always backed off.  However, this time the markets are holding up fairly well; it appears that they have priced in the fact that the Fed is going to start looking for a way to cut back on this program. In this sense, the markets are holding up rather well and one would have to say that they are now actually climbing up a wall of worry. Market Update Jan 22, 2014

The new reality is that the mom and pop investor has just jumped into the market, and they have been sitting on the sidelines for a very long time.  They have also been finally brainwashed into accepting the alternate reality that all is well.  On that basis, we can expect the markets to rally much higher before they finally run into a brick wall.  Market Update Jan 22, 2014

Based on the trend and our psychological analysis of the situation, we think that the Dow could soar to unimaginable heights before the markets crack and even when they crack they will not break the long-term uptrend.   The Feds pulled a Houdini with their unrelenting quantitative easing program, and almost no one seems to have noticed this, or if they have almost no one is talking about it.   The Dow and SPX put new highs and based on momentum and old technical analysis theory which most seem to have forgotten; a true bull market begins only when the old highs have been taken out.  The long-term trend remains strong so for now there is very little evidence of long-term weakness.  A correction of up to 20% is possible. We will probably have two corrections one in the 10% ranges and one in the 20% ranges both should be viewed as buying opportunities.  Market Update Jan 22, 2014

The perception is changing; the masses are now becoming optimistic thus unless the trend changes we can expect the markets to rally even higher. One other thing to understand is that even though the rally in the markets has been artificially induced, the markets have actually recently issued “a true bullish signal.”  What is this signal you ask? Well, both the Dow and SPX are trading at new highs. A true bull market is not in session until the old highs have been taken out.  9 out of 10 times when this occurs the market rallies significantly from the breakout point; the breakout  point, in this case, is roughly 14200 (the old 2008 high).  Market Update Dec 12, 2013

Past Market calls Archive

Tactical Investor Past calls 2012-2013

Tactical Investor Past calls from 2009-2011 

Tactical Investor Past calls from 2006-2008

Tactical Investor Past calls from 2005-2006