Tactical Investor Stock Market Projections: 2006-2008

Tactical Investor Stock Market Projections: 2006-2008

Stock Market Projections

Stock Market Projections 2008

Traders were filled as oil traded in the suggested ranges (89-90) however it has not been able to rally past the 90 mark; make sure to maintain your stops at 83.  Oil needs to trade past 90 for 6 days and in doing so it will probably spike to the 96.00- 99.00 ranges.  We would lower our exit points to the 96.00 ranges to ensure a quick exit if the above ranges are tested.  6th Feb 2008

Another set of predictions that have come true and traders were able to lock in profits of 7000 to 10000 per contract.  Oil actually traded as high as 103 before pulling back so it was easy to bail out. If it pulls back to 93-96 ranges risk takers can go long and put in sell orders to close these positions out on a test of 99.90 to 102 ranges. March 4th, 2008

Stock Market Projections For Oil 

Oil did not trade below 87 on a closing basis and in doing so built steam for another leg up.  It briefly flirted with the 100 mark; our initial long-term target of 99 has been hit and now we wait for the second target of 120 to be taken out. Ultimately if the current chaotic situation surrounding the oil markets does not change than our long-term price target of 300 will one day not seem as ridiculous as it seems now? The same could have been said of our now hit target of 99 dollars.  Oil does not have a chance to correct simply because of the current geopolitical situation and it does not look like things are going to get better.

If it’s not Iran, then it’s Venezuela or Nigeria and the oil reserves in Iraq are still nothing but a pipe dream because of the instability there. Demand, on the other hand, continues to soar.  Ideally, oil should pull back to the 81 dollars and trade sideways but the ideal is not what always happens, so risk takers can go long on a pullback to the 89-90 ranges; place a stop at 83 and take profits at 99 dollars.  For oil to trade significantly higher it will need to trade past 99 dollars for 27 days in a row; if it does this there is a very good chance it will test 120 in less than 6 months. Market update Jan 08, 2008 

Stock Market Projections On Palladium

PAL makes for an incredible long-term play. Its prices are even below the mouth-watering level.   Market update Jan 8th, 2008; from the Tactical investor sector analysis portion.

From a long-term perspective, PAL is selling at what one day will be looked upon as an unbelievable event; in fact, some other company might make a play for PAL as was the case with SWC; Norilsk mines took a controlling stake in SWC at or around its lows in the 6 dollar ranges. Market update Jan 15, 2008.

The second massive anomaly is the fact that Gold is selling for more than Palladium when in fact Palladium is the more valuable of the two metals. Now we have what amounts to a double intra-market positive divergence signal; these signals are very rare and so we hardly speak of them.  Basically, when you get such a signal it indicates that one of the markets is oversold to the other to such a point that in most cases it’s a result of a massive manipulation. This manipulation always comes to an end and when it does the resulting move is huge, to say the least

Palladium stands out like a sore thumb because unlike the rest it has not been in a rampant bull market and now the reasons for a massive spike have just doubled.   We strongly advise subscribers with extra money to purchase additional shares especially of PAL, some money can be allocated to SWC also and keep deploying extra money into Bullion. Market update Feb, 06. 2008.

Palladium Bullion

As stated before if Palladium bullion can remain above 420 for 27-30 days it would be in a position to complete a rather explosive pattern. The last part of this pattern would be for it to break past 450. Once this occurs one can state that there is an over 75% chance that Palladiums next target will be past 510 and that 600-660 would not be out of the question in the next 9-12 months.  The price differential between Platinum and Palladium is now at historic proportions. History has shown time and time again that a good bargain never lasts forever.  Market update Feb 12, 2008

Palladium and Platinum

 The price differential between Palladium and Platinum has now reached historic proportions; if one goes back all the way to 1977 the price differential between the two metals was never more than 550. Today the price differential is over 1300 dollars; Palladium is trading at roughly 420 and Platinum is trading at roughly 1800 dollars.  It is more than double that of the prior price differential which stood roughly at 550 dollars.  Just this one fact alone is enough to suggest that Palladium is going to go ballistic.  Before we carry on one should remember that good deals do not present themselves every day and they take time to become good for if everyone realised they were good no one would be able to make a killing.

Good deals depend on mass stupidity and mass impatience; this was clearly seen in the dot.com bust, the housing mania, the Gold, silver bull (both took a long time to manifest themselves), base metals, the silent palladium bull, the agricultural commodities and so forth.   We got our subscribers into Silver, gold and Palladium bullion early and initially, it looked like we might have done the wrong thing for prices pulled back and then did nothing for almost a year.  Fast forward now and look at how well patience was rewarded.  Market Update Feb 06, 2008

Stock Market Projections For Natural Gas Markets 

Some parts of the country are experiencing terrible winter storms and other parts actually are unusually warm. Today it felt like spring on the entire East Coast; in fact, in New York, almost everyone was walking around with no jackets or very light jackets.  However the fact remains that the main problem right now is supplies and a major portion of our supply comes from Canada; Canadian supplies are dwindling at a faster than expected rate and it’s getting harder and harder to locate huge new gas fields.  So in the end, unless massive new discoveries are made both in the US and Canada even without extremely huge demand, supplies are going to continue to drop and hence the price will rise.  From a futures perspective, the Natural gas market is one of the trickiest to play as a dollar move translates into a 10,000 dollar profit or loss depending on which side of the market you are.  If it can stay above 7.20 for 11 days in a row on a closing basis it will have a very good chance of testing the 8.40 and possibly 9.00 mark before pulling back. Risk takers can go long in the 7.20-7.50 ranges.08/01/08

Natural gas surged to 8.40 as envisioned; traders who took part in this play should have closed their positions with gains of 12,000 per contract. This market is not for the faint of heart as the moves are huge on a dollar basis. If it pulls back to the 7.50-7.65 ranges open new longs place a stop at 7.05 and take profits in the 8.10-8.40 ranges. Natural gas is now trading in a range; it needs to break past 8.40 for 18-21 days in a row to be in a position to trade to the 9.00 mark and higher. 6th Feb 2008     

Stock Market Projections 2007

We are still bullish from the intermediate time frame perspective and still feel that all massive pullbacks are nothing but buying opportunities.   Right now risk-takers should divide their money into 3 lots and deploy on lot in the 12800-12900 ranges.  Deploy the Second lot in the 12530-12630 ranges.  Hold onto the third lot for now. Once again this play is only for those traders who are willing to take on extra risk.  Buy call options on the DIA or QQQQ’s and make sure they have at least 6 months of time on them.   Market update Nov 13, 2007  

It appears that almost all the signals being generated are suggesting that the markets are setting themselves for an incredibly huge rally that could actually propel the Dow to put in its first all-time true new high since 2000.  Risk takers should use any strong pullbacks below the 12900 level to add to their call positions. The rest should use strong pullbacks to purchase shares in the stocks listed in our portfolios particularly in the Uranium, oil, gas and coal sectors. Market update Nov 20, 2007

Traders had 4 days to take a plunge and follow our advice as one of our trigger points from the Nov 13 update was hit and then another trigger point (12900) from the Nov 20 market update was hit; traders had up to the 27th of this month to move.  Those that moved are already sitting on close to 100-150% profit depending on what levels you purchased these options. Futures traders are sitting on gains of over 5000 dollars per Full Dow futures contract and even more if they went long the SP 500 futures contracts. Congratulations to those of you that took a risk.  Market update Nov 27, 2007

In the short-term though there is one negative and that is our smart money indicator; last week when the Dow dropped instead of diverging it confirmed the drop and thus it appears that the Dow could test its lows (12700-12800) once again before embarking on a very strong rally. However, as we stated under the Standard deviation section a lowering of the interest rate would override this and instead produce a strong rally, especially if the Feds had to issue statements suggesting that they would continue to lower rates.  Market update Dec 4, 2007

For a day that produced one of the largest one-day rallies since July of 2002, the moving averages hardly budged but then again we need to remember these are moving averages and not daily averages. Over the last few weeks, they have been beaten down pretty heavy so it will take a bit more of upside action to move things into the positive arena. We feel that the market has put in a bottom or is now very close to putting in a bottom. The confirmation will come when we see all 3 moving averages of new highs start to lead the new lows for several weeks in a row.  Market update March 11, 2008

Risk takers can also go long the next time the Dow trades in the 11900-12000 ranges. As stated before we will measure the gains in terms of points gained from our suggested entry points. However traders can go long via options on the DOW, QQQQ’s, OEX and futures traders can simply go long Dow futures contracts.  Market update March 11, 2008

Stock Market Projections on the Swiss Franc

As envisioned it surged upwards and in doing so went to put in a series of new 52 week highs. We had been talking about the Swiss franc and Japanese yen for a long time and those who listened to us and positioned themselves in these currencies are sitting on very lovely gains.  The Swiss franc is close to testing its 10-year high and if it can trade above 90 for 11 days in a row it will go on to put in a multi-decade new high. 11/14/07 

It surged all the way to 90.90 before pulling back, however it was unable to trade above 90 for 11 days. It appears to be building energy to do this again; however, it will now have to trade above 90.90 for 9 days in a row to go to put in another series of 52-week highs.12/04/2007

Stock Market Projections For Gold Markets

As stated Gold bullion would be in a position to test the 830 mark after trading past 720 for 21 days and so far this part has come to fruition.  As there are just way too many individuals turning bullish on gold it’s going to have a bit of harder time getting to 900 and thus this could take a bit longer than initially envisioned. In order for gold to be in a position to take out the 900 level in the next 21 to 30 days, it needs to stay above 780 on a closing basis. A failure to hold above this level could drag it all the way down to 720 again.11/14/07

After having traded past 720 for 21 days in a row we stated that it would be in a position to test the 830 and 900 ranges. Well, it tested the first range and is now building a force for the second zone.  Silver is far more explosive and thus aggressive traders could use pullbacks to the 780-793 ranges to open up longs in silver futures and or gold futures. 12/04/2007

Stock Market Projections 2006

We are seeing subtle signs of what could amount to a huge form of distribution taking place right now. The volume on down days is rather large even though the moves are not very significant.   There are no signs to indicate that this will be a long-term down move, rather it appears that the Dow will correct hard and fast before stabilising and mounting another rally.   Short-term targets appear to be in the 10500-10522 ranges, which would provide a good place to open up new longs. From a macro outlook, markets update Jan 03, 2006

The housing sector is going to correct and the correction will suddenly pick up steam. Top executives in many of the homebuilder companies are silently dumping their shares. Risk-takers look to open up long-term put positions (LEAPS) every time this sector rallies. These positions can be opened on the Index (HGX) or by buying Leap puts on some of the big names out there such as LEN, TOL, and BZH etc. market update Jan 03, 2006

Those that followed this advice were able to lock in rather huge gains as the housing sector collapsed traded down to 189 from 280. Obviously very few were able to get in right at the top and get out right at the bottom however traders using simple trend analysis should have been able to lock in spectacular gains. Options should have easily quadrupled in value.

Shorts Triggered In Jan 2006

All three of our shorts on the Dow were triggered; that means risk-takers are either short futures or are using Dow put options.  1st short triggered in the 10873-10890 ranges, 2nd short 10950 and third short 11,000; Average entry price is 10944.  For the time being a short pullback is all that we are looking for before the markets resume their upward trend.   For this reason, we think that when the markets trade in the 10740 ranges everyone that partook in the Dow puts/Dow futures short play should start to close their positions.  Risk takers can then look to open up new longs at this level (invest only 1/3 of the money you are going to invest for the time being).   Market Update Jan 17, 2006

 We traded down to 10740 and traders were able to close out their options for a nice gain; though futures players locked in the really big gains. They were able to lock in 2040 per futures contract. Traders were then able to go long and closed these longs in two days for gains that amounted roughly to 50% for options players.

 The farm construction equipment/machinery sector has made a nice strong upward move and is now in the top 5 sectors. ARTW looks interesting here for risk-takers.  Market update Feb 7, 2006

 For those who were willing to take on a bit more risk, this advice has paid off well; this chap is now up roughly 50%. Traders should have been able to take positions in the 5.85-6.00 ranges.

Okay, the fast and huge plunge last week generated quite a bit of fear but the turn around rally occurred too fast. Most likely it was the dumb short-sellers covering their positions, as they could not believe that they finally hit something big after all this pain.  So we think that there is a decent chance that we could test the lows or dip below them one more time. If this occurs it will just provide another good chance to initiate new longs on the Dow via futures or call options

 Use Pullbacks To Open New Longs (Feb 2006)

Risk takers can use any significant pullbacks to initiate new longs (a pullback of 100 or more points) and close them out each time you lock in gains of 100-200 points. You can more or less keep doing this till we issue a sell signal. However, remember this is a higher risk trade and do not jump into this thinking that it’s a sure way of making a fortune. Never ever put all your eggs in one basket. Market update Feb 14. 2006

Traders who kept purchasing options or futures contracts did very well as the market pulled back 100-200 points several times providing risk-takers with so many chances to initiate new trades.

The hourly phase has changed to up and the daily phase is neutral and could change point up anytime now.  Usually, when the hourly and daily phases are pointing in the same direction it is an indication that a strong move is just around the corner. Long-term corn looks great and we would not be surprised to see corn trading at or past 270 before the year is out. Market update Feb 14, 2006 

Corn surpassed our highest targets and traded as high as 380 before pulling back.

One another area of interest is that the Dow transports have already put in a new all-time high and so it appears it is just a matter of time before the Dow follows suite.

At this point in time, the Dow is testing the top of the channel formation attempting to build energy to blast past it and put in a new all-time high.  The first target will be a test of the 11, 200 ranges after that we think the Dow will attempt to enter our first target ranges (11350-11430). If the momentum is strong here then we think there is a chance that it could trade past 11,600 Market update Feb 21, 2006.

A break past 295.30 on strong volume should propel us back to the 330 ranges. At this point in time palladium will either power up or put in a double top. If it’s the latter then we are going to enter a corrective phase that could last 3-12 weeks, which should provide those who have no positions with another buying opportunity.

For the time being, however, we must continue to remain bullish even though the case for a bullish scenario gets weaker with the passage of each day.  We are also working on specific plays that we will issue as soon as we feel the markets have put in a top and are ready to correct.  Risk-takers, as stated several weeks ago, could keep opening up long positions every time the Dow trades at 10950 or lower. Market update March 7, 2006

Technical Analysis and Mass Psychology issuing conflicting signals

Even though TA is stating that the markets are in trouble, psychological indicators continue to support the fact that we should lean more to the bullish side then the bearish side.   We do however expect some sort of pullback now that we have had a rather impressive move up to the 11000 range or so. If we can hold at this level then we should most likely put in another high. The theme is now going to be extreme volatility; so expect huge moves up and down.   Risk takers can divide their money into 3 lots and use the first third of this money to initiate new longs on a pullback to the 11,000 ranges.  Invest the 2nd lot if we trade in the 10960 ranges.  We will issue the parameters for the deployment of the third part of the money later on.   Market update March 14, 2006

Stock Market Projections on Palladium

It traded as high as 324, 6 points away from our target. It appears to be putting in a short-term topping formation and if it does not blast through 330 soon on high volume without flashing a negative divergence it’s going to enter into a corrective phase that could last from 3-9 weeks.  If this situation should unfold it will provide another opportunity for those who missed the first move to get on the bandwagon. Market update March 21, 2006 

We are waiting for a nice sharp quick pullback and then there is a pretty good chance that the Dow will put in an all-time new high or several of them before embarking on rather a sharp correction. Market update April 4, 2006 

Dollar failed to rally past 90 and so far has traded as low as 87.60.  We are officially no longer bullish on the dollar and are going to simply sit on the sidelines watching this chap.  The currency that appears to be the most interesting right now is the Swiss Franc.

Oil traded past 68.10 and as envisioned traded easily to the 70.00 dollar ranges and actually surpassed it putting in a new all-time high. With geopolitical tensions mounting oil could put in several new all-time highs before pulling back.  If we should attack Iran we might appear to win on the very short-term time frame but the spike in oil prices will be the equivalent of several missiles landing in New York City.  Not to mention the serious surge in Terrorist activity it will cause both on the local and international fronts. We will be paying close attention to our religious provocation index over the next few months.  The current pattern is suggesting that if oil can trade and hold above 74 it could spike all the way to the 78-81 ranges.

Palladium has been able to stay above the 330 mark so far and the longer it stays here the higher the likelihood of a new pattern emerging.  We are at a critical point now as Palladium has put in a new 3-year high and the next zone of major resistance is 380. If we get to this level and are able to hold then 420 becomes the next target. It’s interesting to note that almost no one has noticed Palladium yet.

Palladium went on to test the 420 level before pulling back; it was the best performer in the precious metals arena and yet hardly anyone noticed. Long term this is incredibly bullish.

The utilities seem to lead the way; the fact that they have put in a bottom produced 4 trend lines and flashed several positive divergence signals on the daily charts bodes well for the Dow. The odds of the Dow now putting in a series of new highs have risen to 70%.  Market update April 18, 2006

We will keep stating this again and again. The theme, for now, is patience lets wait for a nice correction/pullback and then we will be ready to issue several higher-risk plays.  While the markets are ripe for a correction they are not ready to crash yet as the big boys are just sitting and watching the game from the sidelines.  In addition, none of our psychological indicators has issued a sell (we are paying more attention to these indicators than our Technical indicators at this point in time). Finally, the Dow Jones utilities appear to have put in a bottom which suggests that after correction the Dow Jones Industrials will most likely follow suit.   Market update April 25, 2006

This pattern between the Dow Jones industrials and the Utilities proved to be true and the Dow bottomed and then proceeded to rally.

Right now risk-takers can divide their money into 3 lots. Deploy the first lot in the 1100-11070 ranges.

The 2nd lot can be deployed in the 10950 ranges. If we don’t trade down to this level we will adjust this entry point upwards.  We will deploy the third lot later on.  We are basing our entry points on the Dow but as soon as these points are hit traders can start buying DIA options with at least 3 months of time on them; 6 months would be better. An example would be Jan 07 DIA 115.75 (ZWZAL) calls currently trading in the 3.20-3.60 ranges.  Traders would wait till the Dow traded in the suggested ranges and then attempt to buy this option. If the Dow hit the second entry points Jan 07 DIA 110 calls might look interesting also. Finally, those traders who took part in the higher risk IBB option play that we put out last week get ready to buy one more set of options on this chap.   Market update on May 23, 2006.

This trade worked out incredibly well, to say the least.  

The way the market is currently set up we could either pull back 600 points before rallying again or pull back as much as 1200 points after a new all-time high is put in.   May 9th, 2006.

We traded as high as 11650 and as low as 11045 in the last few days so it appears that we have the 600 point pullback we were looking for

Another interesting anomaly is that despite these huge down days the Dow Jones utilities have been trending higher. They put in a tradable bottom around April 17th and flashed several nice positive divergence signals on the hourly charts.  The utilities were the first to mount a major correction and our hypothesis is that they would lead the way up.   This pattern between the Dow and the utilities is relatively new (approx 3 years old) and we do not expect it to last indefinitely. However, based on this pattern the Dow’s current action is perfectly normal.  As long as the utilities stay above 380 the short and intermediate outlooks are bullish. Market update May 30, 2006

The utilities remained above 380 and went on to put in a series of new highs and as suggested they paved the way for the Dow and the transports to follow suit.

We warned everyone repeatedly that the markets had entered into an extremely volatile phase and that’s why the markets are all over the place. We even advised the faint of heart to start closing all profitable positions.  Having said that ignore the fear-mongers because they are usually wrong. Nothing crashes in one wave. What usually happens before a big crash is a fake mini-crash and this is what is currently taking place in the markets? The Dow from its high to low corrected over 1100 points and wiped all the gains for the year; this has put the fear of God or the Devil into the hearts of the small trader.

Another distorting factor is that over 54% of the trading volume currently is coming from sell or buy programs triggered by computers. These computers basically are doing what their dumb programmers instructed them to do and usually, the move is in the wrong direction. Since the commands are already in when a certain index trades at a specific point a sell program is generated.  The higher the volatility the faster these computers are triggered into buying or selling.  These sell programs then trigger the dumb trader into action so it’s a domino effect.

The fact that the all 3 moving averages of new lows (20, 100,365) have witnessed extreme moves further suggests that a lot of panic selling is taking place right now.  Note also that NYSE specialists are sitting waiting and they are currently holding even smaller short positions then they did a few months ago.

We, therefore, believe that the current sharp pullback is a fake trap for all the dumb money and that we should witness a rather massive short squeeze in the not too distant future that might push the Dow to a new all-time high. It’s then when everyone is feeling smug having so easily forgotten what took place in the months of May and in June that the markets will be ready to embark onto a brutal correction.

Hence expect even more volatility and if we were to take an uneducated guess and yes we mean uneducated guess because there is nothing educated about guessing we would say there is a good chance that the Dow will put in a new all-time high before correcting severely.  Market update June 14, 2006

We forgot to mention a very interesting fact last week.  On Thursday the week before last, the Dow closed up 8 points after trading down over 170 points on one of the heaviest volume days of this year.  This is actually very bullish because one has to look at this action with a different type of mindset; a mindset that simply refuses to accept the norm or assume that old rules apply forever.  The Dow actually climbed up over 178 points (170 plus 8) on the heaviest volume day of the year. This is sometimes referred to as a reversal day.  We believe that there is over an 81% chance that the market has now put in a tradable bottom.

We have repeatedly stuck our neck out and remained bullish since 2003 even when the outlook out there was extremely negative.  One of the main reasons we have been able to do this is because we have completely put aside our personal feelings and simply focussed on the data and our psychological indicators. What kills most traders is that they listen to the noise outside and then react to it. One must always remember the saying that it’s impossible for everyone to make money just as it’s impossible for everyone to lose.  Market Update, June 20, 2006.


































DJIA Median Guess



Stock Market Projections based on Sentiment data

Notice something very interesting that the number of bulls and the number of bears are almost identical; this means that both camps are confused. Do not confuse these readings with what the ultra dumb money is doing. Sentiment and investing are two different things. Many people give their opinions but less than half of them actually act on them.  However, this week’s number tells us that both camps are fully confused; such numbers are usually seen at or very close to market bottoms.

The situation looks bad, the crowd is frothing, the Market pundits are spewing negative news constantly and it looks like all hell could break loose any time.  We must remember the proverbial old saying, which states that markets usually climb a wall of worry to which we added the following and crash down a cliff of Joy.  Since everyone appears to be worried we have to remain calm and study the action carefully.  Our analysis reveals that for now, the best stand is to remain bullish.  Traders willing to take on higher amounts of risks can use all pullbacks to open up new longs on the Dow or other indices via call options or via futures.  The biotech sector and semiconductor are issuing rather strong positive divergence signals. The drug sector is also looking interesting; all 3 appear ready to rally and once they start to take off on all cylinders the indices should explode upwards. Risk takers can take positions in all 3 sectors via purchasing call options on the respective ETF’s (IBB, SMH, PPH). Market Update, June 28, 2006.

Risk takers can continue to open up long positions on any significant pullback.  This is definitely a dangerous market to short unless one is doing so on a very short-term basis and only experienced traders should play this game.  The Dow needs to break past 11220 on very good volume and stay above this mark for 9 days. If it can do this there is a very good chance that it will test its old highs and then go onto put in a new all-time high.

We continue to believe that the NASDAQ will be the biggest gainer when the markets enter the full rally phase.

We feel that the moment Israel accepts some sort of peace deal the markets will mount a rather sharp relief rally.  We still consider that shorting the market is not something the wise should get involved in right now.

We are going to list a few more plays below for individuals willing to take on a bit more risk.

DNE: interesting entry points would be in the 1.71-1.80 ranges, GST:  1.95-2.07 ranges, BPG: 1.05-1.11 Market update August 1, 2006.

DNE and GST both traded at or below the suggested prices and then proceeded to trade significantly higher. DNE is now at 3.10 and GST Took off almost immediately and traded as high as 3.20 before pulling back. The only play that has not worked out yet is BPG.

For a long time now we have been stating that risk-takers can continue to add to their long positions on every major pullback; this has proved to be a very profitable strategy so far. From now only uses pullbacks of at least 150 points to add to your positions.  The Dow needs to trade above 11220 for 9 days in a row. So far its been unable to do this but once it does we suspect it will at the very least test its old high if not go in to put in a series of new highs.

In May we issued specific instruction to buy the Dow if it traded in the 10950 ranges those that followed this advice are already sitting on very nice gains. The options purchased in this range are now up over 150%.  If you are nervous sell half and hold the rest. In addition, we advised risk-takers to use every major pull back to open up longs we have been giving this advice now for almost 90 days; it was a very hard thing to do initially but once again those that followed this advice are holding onto some rather lovely gains.   Under no circumstances should one consider shorting this market at this stage; of course if we have a full-fledged war in the Middle East then that outlook changes. However, one cannot sit and worry about unpredictable events as all it does is increase one’s stress and prevents one from seeing the big picture; you start focusing on the trees instead of the forest.   Market update August 9, 2006.

As we have repeatedly stated in the last 90 days shorting this market is a recipe for disaster. Many times it appeared initially that we might have been wrong in making this call but if one looks back one can see quite clearly how easily one could have lost their shirts and their pants shorting this market.

Risk-takers use every pullback of 150 points or more to add to your position on the Dow and QQQQ via call options or futures. So far this strategy of buying on major pullbacks has worked rather well.  Note also that those players who took our advice to go long the QQQQ’s in the 36 ranges are already sitting on decent gains.  This was a rather volatile trade but then as the saying goes no pain no gain and some of our biggest winners usually produced the most pain initially. Those of you that took part in the higher risk PPH call options plays should have been able to easily sell half your calls for a nice 100% gain.

We see no reason to short this market at this point in time. The markets are biding their time right now and the main theme of this game is to test the trader’s patience. When markets go up and down and are stuck in a range they break many a seasoned trader and as soon as these guys throw the towel in the markets take off.  For the past 90 days or so the markets have been doing nothing but playing the game of 2 steps forward 1 ½ steps backwards and so far this trick is having the desired effect on the masses.  Expect this market to mount a rather furious rally out of the blue. 

NCLRF Let’s buy additional shares in this chap in the 18-22 cent ranges.  Long term this stock still looks good and since it’s in the Uranium sector it should explode once this sector is done correcting.  It’s interesting to note that only the stocks are correcting the actual metal continues to trade higher; this is usually a very strong intra-market positive divergence signal. Market Update Aug 15, 2006.

The Dow has been able to hold above 11220 for several days in a row if it can extend this for a full 9 days then the picture is going to get very interesting. A test of the 11450 ranges becomes all but inevitable.

 All 3 moving averages of new highs have now moved into the positive and are nicely leading the moving averages of new lows. This suggests that the markets are now almost done with the internal cleansing process and are strong and basically building up strength for the next leg up.

Now that the threat of future rate hikes is temporarily out of the equation the masses like fanatics are looking for other reasons to worry about the state of the market. Like addicts these nut cases only feel some sort of comfort when they have a reason to worry; they are addicted to this state and every time one factor is removed they immediately look for a replacement.  The war factor is now also temporarily out of the equation and yet the masses continue to look for negative reasons to worry about the state of the market. We are not really concerned with their (masses) crackpot nature but understand that they will always find a reason to worry; then suddenly out of nowhere, they will enter into a super euphoric phase.

Remember markets climb a wall of worry and tumble-down a cliff of joy.  These markets have dealt with higher oil prices, a war, a thwarted terrorist plot in London, now another thwarted terrorist plot in Germany, a terrorist attack in Mumbai, 17 rate hikes, a plunging housing market etc and it continues to plod upwards slowly. The word resilience comes to mind. The main reason for this move up as always is that the crowd is always wrong. Most sentiment figures forget to actually separate the numbers from perception to actual action. In other words, 90% may be bullish but only 30% are acting on this bullish perception hence the 90% bullish number is total garbage as the real number is 30%.  So thinking and acting are completely two different concepts.

Whatever you do, throw the concept of shorting this market into the toilet and flush it away for now. Only if you have a desperate desire to lose your assets should you attempt this strategy now?   We will enter a period where shorting the markets will be the way to go but we are not there yet; risk-takers use every 150 point plus pull back to open or add to your long positions in the Dow and QQQQ’s via call options and or futures. Market update, August 22, 2006.

Once again risk-takers were provided with several chances to keep opening new longs every time the market pulled back 150 points or more.

The Dow has been able to trade above 11220 for 9 days hence the picture has improved considerably and it has a very good chance of testing 11450 before pulling back.  Remember also the big traders have already gone on vacation so trading volume is going to be light till they come back from their Labour Day vacations.  Then there is a very good chance that the bulls will want to drive the markets up to snap the backs of the bears that have stops in the 11700-11900 ranges.

Once again we have to state that shorting these markets is not the way to go unless you are a very fast, clever and a nimble trader. Market update, August 29, 2006.

The big talk continuously in Wall Street is the low volume. It’s amazing how these chaps always find time to find something wrong but do not have the brainpower to examine the nonsense they spew out.  Off course the volume is going to be low, most of the big traders are on leave some of them have taken the entire summer off and others were taking month-long vacations but at different times. Furthermore almost all the mid to big traders took the entire week leading to the Labour Day weekend off.  It’s for this reason volume was rather anaemic last week. However, in retrospect we have to be grateful that Wall Street and most of the financial arena are both chock full of jackasses; it would make our job more difficult if they  all simply just used a bit of common sense

Once again unless we get a strong short-term sell signal no one should consider shorting these markets.  Market update, Sept 5, 2006.

Just for the record we are not turning negative yet but are just getting more cautious. There are still many factors that support our theory that the markets could put in a new all-time high before they embark on a long correction.  The regional banker’s index as illustrated by RKH has just put in a new high, which indicates that the markets are still strong.  The 27 segments of the market we examined below have not flashed any negative divergence signals yet.  Market update, Sept 26, 2006.

Stock Market Projections on The Dollar

Could it be ready to mount another rally? We turned negative on it several months ago and suggested individuals purchase the British pound and Swiss franc. Those that bought the pound did very well indeed

We just want to be clear in one area. We are not bullish on the dollar in the very long-term. We are almost certain that the Swiss Franc will trash the dollar in the long-term. However, in the short to intermediate time frames the dollar might be ready to mount another rally. We were expecting the dollar to mount a rally and were quite bullish on it last year and for several months into this year. It did mount a rather decent rally but it did not go as high as we would have liked it to go. From a low of 80.50 it rallied all the way to the 92 plus ranges before correcting; a gain of 14.1%.

Dollar correction

The dollar has mounted quite a correction in a relatively short period of time; from its high (92 plus) on Dec 05 to its low June 06 it has corrected over 10% in approx 6 months. For any developed nation a correction of this magnitude is indeed rather large. Hence it appears that there is now a good chance that the dollar might rally again. There are almost no real fundamental reasons we can find for this rally. However, there are some psychological and technical reasons that might make sense.

1) On the hourly charts, the Dollar flashed a series of rather strong positive divergence signals.

2) The dollar is still disliked by the majority and so from a psychological perspective, it has the ingredients that appear to make it a good short-term investment.

3) For foreigners that have been investing heavily in overseas markets; the US market appears to be rather cheap both the equities and commercial real estate. Hence money could start to flood both sectors; indeed quite a bit of foreign money has already hit the commercial real estate sector and it looks like it’s not going to let up soon. Since both these transactions have to be conducted in US dollars it might create a temporary demand for the dollar.

As we stated last week a relationship appears to exist between the US dollar and the markets in that they tend to trade in the same direction. Now if the dollar is going to mount a rally which appears to be already in the early stages then it looks like the Equity markets could rally significantly higher.   In fact, if it were to trade sideways or remain locked in a range it would still be probably enough to propel the markets to new highs.  Market Update Oct 10, 2006.

Additional Calls From Aug 2005- May 06

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