Bull & Bear Market 2019 & Stock Market Timing

bull & bear

Stock market timing: Bull & Bear

Before we get into any commentary take a look at the images and charts below.  Remember that the best time to buy from a long term perspective is when blood is flowing freely in the streets and blood is flowing now. Finally, keep in mind that we have always advocated that crashes are nothing but long term buying opportunities.  Pull up a long term chart and you will be forced to arrive at the same conclusion.  The Big player’s game strategy is to get individuals to focus on words such as bear market, crash, and end of the world, etc.; in doing so, the crowd focuses on the tree and forgets the forest.

bull & bear- focus on the trend that is all that matters

The anxiety gauge has redlined, and the gauge is in trending in unchartered territory;  it has set an all-time new high.  Bearish sentiment is approaching the seven-year high level. Fear and hysteria are trading at off the chart levels.  Mass psychology states that stock markets never crash when the masses are in a state of panic.   Bull markets emerge when the masses panic, so forgot about what happens if the stock market crashes scenario? If it does crash, run out and buy all the top companies; from a long term perspective stock market crashes are fantastic buying opportunities.

Holiday sales indicate Bull & Bear trends

Source: emarketer.com

 

If things were declining retail sales would not be improving. Holiday season retail sales are set to exceed the $ one trillion mark for the first time.

Conclusion

The correction of 2008 was warranted as the masses were euphoric in terms of the housing sector; it took a turn for the worse when Lehman brothers were purposely thrown to the curb by the Fed.  Regardless of this development, you can see that the markets were trading in the extremely overbought ranges and masses were euphoric.

The same sequence of events occurred during the dot.com bubble and the not too late Bitcoin bubble. If there were charts, we could demonstrate the exact setup going back all the way to the tulip bubble.  The masses are not euphoric and the markets are not overbought; hence the current pullback most likely falls into the “opportunity” category.  Forget about the Bull & Bear Market theory, instead focus on the trend as it is your friend. Everything else falls under the category of noise.

Aug 2019 Commentary update

When the SPX is trading well above its 99 EMA (exponential moving average), it either pulls back or consolidates. The pullback or consolidation, in turn, pushes our indicators towards the oversold ranges and then we can take on higher levels of risk. Our risk to reward models adjusts entry points based on the current state of the market.

This falls under the category of secondary indicators, and we don’t place too much value on them. They are good for detecting small anomalies but are almost useless when it comes to determining the trend.  Most of these secondary indicators like this one are suggesting that the markets are trading in the extremely overbought ranges.  There is nothing that states just because they are trading in the overbought ranges the markets have to pullback. Remember,  on the monthly charts, the markets are still trading in the oversold ranges, so all strong corrections have to be viewed through a bullish lens.

Other articles of Interest

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Market Correction Vs A Back Breaking Market Correction (Jan 3)

Bitcoin Crash: Is Bitcoin Bull Dead Forever (Jan 1)

The Boom And Bust Cycle Due To Fiat-Buy The Boom & Sell the Bust Phase (Dec 6)

Risk and Opportunity; When To Buy & When To Run (Nov 28)

Risk To Reward Ratio & Opportunity Vs Risk (Nov 27)

National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Is still a good investment (Nov 22)

Lost Money In The Stock Market? Here’s the Solution  (Nov 19)

A clear illustration of why we often refer to experts as jackasses  (Nov 15)

Stock Market Bull 2018 Doldrums; is the Bear Ready to Growl (Oct 28)

The Ideal time to Buy Stocks is when the Masses are Panicking (Oct 27)

Trade is not that Important to America as it’s a closed Economy  (Aug 3)

Bull & Bear Market 2019 outlook