Stock Market Crash Date: If Only The Experts Knew When

Stock Market Crash Date: If Only The Experts Knew When

Stock Market Crash Date: everyone Barks But No One Bites

Experts are notorious for issuing dates and dire predictions but on both counts, if one bothers to track their performance, one will find that monkey’s with darts fare much better.

This is what we stated to our subscribers on the 11th of July 2019.

Looking at the chart below, it would be easy to conclude that we are about to push the “triple top” theory, but we are not.  We are looking at the picture in terms of very strong resistance and very strong support zones.  The Dow has tried to trade above 26,800-27,000 ranges almost 19 months. Furthermore, these attacks have been widely spaced out.  Hence, the Dow is now at an inflexion point”; it either blasts above 27,000 and in doing so former resistance turns into strong support.

Forget the Stock Market Crash Date Argument; Focus on the Trend Instead

Alternatively, if it fails to hold above 27K (after trading above it) the pullback could range from medium to strong. A medium pullback would end in the 25,500-25,800 ranges. A strong pullback could take the Dow all the way down to 24,5K (plus or minus 200 points).

This outlook is based on the short to intermediate timelines; the long term picture is still bullish. We are not worried about a sharp or medium pullback for the only thing that changes is the opportunity factor. When the trend is up, strong deviations are viewed through a very bullish lens; in other words, the strong the deviation, the better the opportunity factor.   If the above comes to pass, it will be a good time to test your resolve for it is easy to buy when the situation appears to be calm, but when it’s not most panic and run instead of embracing the opportunity. It’s amazing how when a market is soaring everyone wants to get in and pay more and more, but the same individuals that were willing to pay more are now afraid to pay less for the same stock.   End of Market Update, July 11, 2019 

Market Sentiment is far from bullish

Take a look at the gauges below and it immediately becomes obvious that the only ones that are scared are the ones that historically fare the worst. Anyone with the mass mindset falls under that category. In other words, lemmings will always be lemmings and their only function when it comes to the markets is to be used as cannon fodder.

 

 

The long term outlook for the Dow and the overall markets remain unchanged.  On the monthly charts, the Dow is still trading in the oversold ranges, so despite the gnashing of teeth, this current pullback has to be viewed through a bullish lens. The only area of focus, therefore, should be directed at finding the best stocks to get into as stocks are not created equal. For example, value investing is almost dead as hot money is chasing momentum-based stocks and if you get into a momentum based stock at the wrong time, despite strong fundamentals you could end up being on the receiving end of the stick.

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Stock Market Bull 2019 & Forever QE  (June 13)

Forever QE; the Program that never stops giving    (May 31)