BlogNext Stock Market Crash Prediction: Hype Or Hope
Next Stock Market Crash Prediction: Hype Or Hope
The next stock market crash prediction
Updated Jan 2023
The market will crash, but not before all the naysayers and Dr’s of Doom will lose their pants and nickers first or ensure that the clients that listen to them do so.
The more pertinent question is when the markets will crash. Should we panic over a stock market crash? A Market crash is a correction, as the term crash usually applies to those who jump in towards the tail of the bull market. Before we examine the issue of when the Stock Market will crash, let’s remember that a stock market crash is nothing but a buying opportunity from a long-term perspective. So will the stock market crash, and if yes, when will this occur? According to most experts, the market is ready to crash today or tomorrow, or it should have already crashed. Do you want to rely on such faulty advice?
Jim Rogers, one of the co-founders of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, is becoming increasingly bearish as he feels that the financial system is due for a shock. In Fact, he went on record to state that the Fed does not know what it is doing on Bloomberg TV. “A $68 trillion ‘Biblical’ collapse is poised to wipe out millions of Americans”, said Jim Rogers. Should the masses panic and listen to these statements, we will answer that shortly. For now, let’s look at what other experts are stating.
Dr Doom, The broken record
Here’s Marc Faber’s next stock market crash prediction. Remember, if you follow this dude’s advice, you better take it with a bottle of whisky and a jar of salt. He feels that the markets are destined to crash. If you had listened to chap, you would have been blown out of the markets long ago. Jim Rogers has made some pretty good calls in the past; Mark Faber, on the other hand, very few; treat him as a source of entertainment. He went on CNBC recently and made the following claims.
“I believe the time will come when the weakness of the euro becomes uncomfortable for the Europeans, specifically the Germans, and then there will be a reverse,” Faber said. “And the dollar will go down, and the money that flowed into U.S. assets will flow out of U.S. assets, and so the market is more likely to go down.” CNBC
Carl Icahn on the Next Stock market Crash Prediction
Carl Icahn, another well-recognised financial expert, recently made the following comment
“The public is walking into a trap again as they did in 2007.”
Many experts think the stock market is overvalued by at least 50%. Moreover, they feel we are about to face a crash of historic proportions.
Andrew Smithers, the chairman of Smithers and Co., stated
“U.S. stocks are now about 80 per cent overvalued,” he backs this assertion with the claim that the current conditions match those of 1929 and 1999.
Kendrick Wakeman of FinMason states
“If you look at the market historically, we have had, on average, a crash about every eight to 10 years, and essentially the average loss is about 42 per cent,”
The focus should be on what to do when the stock market crashes. One day it will crash, and will you react in the same way, or will you change course? The Tactical Investor, on the other hand, has gone on record time and time again to state the experts have it wrong since 2013. One day the markets will crash, but that time is not upon us yet.
Mark Mobius views market crashes through a positive lens
We agree with this stance and this is something we at the Tactical Investor have been doing since our inception. He recently appeared on CNBC and made the following comments on Russia
“Russia is very cheap,” the storied emerging markets investor told CNBC’s “Street Signs.” “The problem is the sanctions. Many of us cannot invest because of the sanctions. Once sanctions are released, then the market is going to do very well.”
Sir John Templeton, one of the most significant Global Stock Pickers of all-time views on Stock Market Crashes
“If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd.”
“Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”
Jack Bogle, former chief of the Vanguard Group
Many naysayers will go out of their way to Twist Bogle’s recent comments on CNBC:
He stated that the crowd should prepare for two declines of 25%-30%, maybe even 50% in the coming decade. The host Scott Wapner made the following comment:
For a buy-and-hold guy, that is a little concerning, don’t you think?”
Bogle Calmly replied
“Not at all. They come and go. The market goes up, and the market goes down. It is never failed to recover from one of those 50 per cent declines.”
Is the Market Poised For A crash?
The average trader has a convoluted view of the markets and the world. They are forever willing to bend the definition of risk and opportunity to suit whatever perspective takes the lead role. When prices are low, they assume that it is the wrong time to buy because they are bound to go lower, and when they are soaring upwards, they assume that it is the right time to buy because they are bound to soar even higher. The concept of risk to reward is thrown out of the window; they state they seek an opportunity with low risk, but their actions speak otherwise. No Bull Market has ever ended on a note of fear; they end when the crowd is in a state of ecstasy.
One needs to understand the difference between a battle and a war. You can lose several battles but still win the war, or many battles and still lose. It comes down to how much damage you incur as opposed to losing or winning the battle. If you minimise the damage, you can lose several battles in a row, retreat and regroup and come back and win the war. Feb 2019 Update
The above two gauges show that the masses are far from happy. Every sharp pullback should be embraced until they embrace this bull market; the more substantial the deviation, the better the opportunity.
Stock Market Crash Outlook Update
Now given the intensity of the current sell-off, the markets are likely to mount a rally, the first attempt usually fails, and if history is to be trusted, then when this rally fizzles out, it should lead to another downward wave that could take the market to new lows on an intraday basis. If the pattern is strong enough, we could issue a short-term put play or an open-up strangle position. This is where one opens up both a call and put but with different strike prices.
Don’t forget to keep a trading journal; the best time to take notes is when blood is flowing freely on the streets.
Watch with amazement how the hysteria over the coronavirus disappears just as fast as it was created once the objective of lowering rates and approving multi-billion bailouts is achieved. The data on the coronavirus indicates that the high mortality rate only applies to older individuals, and we are sure when that data is further examined. It will be discovered that these older individuals are not in the best of health. In other words, they probably have existing conditions.
The masses are far from bullish; in fact, they are downright panicking, and therefore, this blood-curling pullback has to be embraced with enthusiasm. The stronger the deviation, the better the opportunity. Six months from the crowd will regret having through the baby out with the bathwater. March 12, 2020
Now is an excellent time to sit back and dwell on how you felt back in March when the markets were crashing. At the Tactical Investor, we repeatedly warned our subscribers that this was a manufactured crisis and that the markets would recover. Fast forward, that appears to have come to pass. We are roughly 3K from Dow 30K, while the Nasdaq has already soared to new highs. In the end crowd always losses; remember that the next time the experts state that markets could crash and burn, the only that goes up in smoke is the egos of these shady experts.
This was the smallest bear market in history. It was killed before it could even gather traction. As the trend is bullish, the plan is simple. Embrace all pullbacks ranging from mild to wild, like a lost love.
Monkeys fare better than experts.
In 2010, a Russian circus monkey named Lusha picked an investment portfolio that “outperformed 94% of the country’s investment funds” to great acclaim. Given 30 blocks, each representing a different company, and asked, “Where would you like to invest your money this year?” the chimp picked out eight blocks. An editor from a Russian finance magazine commented that Lusha “bought successfully, and her portfolio grew almost three times.” He suggested that “financial whizz-kids” be “sent to the circus” instead of rewarded with large bonuses.
Free Market Forces No Longer Exist
Forget the Market Crash Angle and focus on the Opportunity Factor. Sol Palha
Free market forces ceased to exist a long time ago. We now have the illusion that the markets are free, but they are not; all the data is being manipulated. Fear is the emotion the top players use to stampede the crowd and fleece them of their hard-earned money.
The top players never work hard. They live off your sweat. Understand the game, and you can use this to your advantage. Stock Market Crash of 2017 or the COVID crash of 2020: the story is the same—only the packaging changes. Please don’t follow the masses. They have an uncanny knack for doing the wrong thing at precisely the right time.
Tactical Investor ViewPoint On Market Crashes
At the Tactical Investor, our motto is simple; the trend is your friend. Everything else is your foe. decide on a course of action.
It may sound counterintuitive, but the smartest thing to do during a stock market crash is to stay calm and avoid following the masses. Humans tend to rely on our instincts and emotions, leading to poor decision-making in the financial markets. It’s important to remember that the Crowd is always on the wrong side of the market. And blindly following their actions can result in significant losses.
At the Tactical Investor, we believe in the power of mass psychology and technical analysis. By analyzing market trends and understanding the behaviour of the masses, we can make informed investment decisions that are less likely to be influenced by emotions.
It’s important to remember that history tends to repeat itself. Past market crashes are a testament to this. Yet, the masses often fail to learn from their mistakes and continue to make the same emotional decisions that lead to losses.
You need to control your emotions and think logically to succeed in the financial markets. Panic and joy are unreliable indicators of market performance. Basing your decisions solely on these emotions is a recipe for disaster.
During a market crash, staying calm and making informed decisions based on analysis and logic rather than emotions is essential. Avoid following the masses, and remember that the trend is your friend. Doing so can increase your chances of success in the financial markets.
