Gold bullion bars prices: Trend Projections

 Gold bullion bars prices: Trend Projections

 Gold Bullion Bars Prices & Trend

Updated  March 2023

Gold like the sun, which melts wax, but hardens clay, expands great souls.
Antoine Rivarol 1753-1801, French Journalist, Epigrammatist

The subject at hand is none other than the precious metal of gold, a substance that has captivated the human imagination for millennia. In fact, our previous article explored the five uptrend lines that gold has produced, a topic of great interest to investors and analysts alike.

It is worth noting, however, that a corresponding downward correction often follows such a significant upward movement. Despite this, the current geopolitical climate has somewhat dampened the potential impact of such a correction. Nonetheless, we must acknowledge that gold has experienced swift retribution relatively briefly, which may hold a slightly positive connotation.

We believe this recent uptrend in gold is but a false ascent. This temporary spike will likely culminate in a short-term correction, presenting an even better buying opportunity for savvy investors who watch market trends. Given the current global tensions, it is improbable that gold will retrace to its primary uptrend line. Consequently, it would be wise to seriously consider increasing positions in gold as it approaches the second major uptrend line.

In light of this, we must adopt a cautious yet strategic approach to investing in this precious commodity. However, it is essential to note that the current strength of the US Dollar may pose a challenge to investing in gold at this time. Nevertheless, once the Dollar confirms it has reached a multi-month peak, it will be time to seize the opportunity to invest in gold. At that point, we strongly advise our clients to load up on gold and take full advantage of this exciting opportunity.

Engaging Read: Technical Analysis Of Stocks And Commodities


Gold Bullion: Bars Prices 2023

Looking ahead to 2023 and beyond, several factors could support continued gains in gold prices. One of the primary drivers of recent increases in gold prices is the weakness of the US dollar, which has made gold more attractive to investors. In addition, upcoming US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions could impact gold prices, as investors will be looking for clues about the direction of monetary policy.

While it’s impossible to predict the exact direction of gold prices, rising gold prices could signal that inflation is on the horizon. With interest rates expected to rise, investors may be looking to hedge against rising borrowing costs, which could increase demand for gold. In addition, gold is often seen as a safe haven asset during economic or political turmoil, which could further support gold prices.

Regarding recent price movements, gold hit a six-month high early in 2023, and analysts believe the rally could continue throughout the year. Overall, market turbulence, rising recession expectations, and increased gold purchases from central banks are all factors that could continue to support gold prices in the near term.

Going Back to 2003 and 2004

As previously noted, gold has been demonstrating the significant market activity, with prices hovering in the 470-510. Should it happen to plummet down to the main uptrend line, gold will undoubtedly become a screaming buy.

We must acknowledge that such opportunities do not present themselves often; however, they can be incredibly rewarding for astute investors. Palladium provided a prime example of such a deal early last year.

It is also worth noting that the RSI has shown a negative divergence on this long-term cycle chart, failing to confirm the new high in gold. The RSI index even reached a new high after gold began its correction, highlighting a potential trend reversal in the making.

Gold Bullion Bars Price Trend Projections

In summary, gold has shown considerable market activity, and we suggest a cautious yet strategic approach to investing in this valuable commodity. If the price dips down to the main up-trend line, gold will fall into the screaming buy category. Such opportunities are rare, and we must be prepared to seize them when they arise.

Note that the RSI index showed a negative divergence on this long-term cycle chart, indicating that it did not validate the new high in gold. The RSI index put in a new high after gold started to correct, and we must consider this when making our investment decisions.

Several indicators show that gold has at least entered the minimum oversold range, and those with no positions at all can start to nibble. However, we must remain vigilant and be prepared to act swiftly if gold does pull back to the main up-trend line. This would be a gift from heaven, and we must load up fast, as this anomaly will not last long.

We have not sold our gold bullion positions that were taken back in 2002, and after being neutral on gold for quite some time, we are now ready to state that it makes sense to start initiating positions if you have none. In the follow-up article, we will post our long-term targets on gold. We must also note that silver is another auspicious metal; we will review it in a separate article. The potential gains in silver on a percentage basis will dwarf gold.

The Looming Energy Crisis & Its Effect On Gold in Dec 2003 we predicted Oil would trade past 48 dollars

If we can hold in the 8,800 to 9,000 range, then the outcome looks rather interesting. Esoteric cycle analysis (our proprietary indicator at the Tactical Investor) is basically suggesting the following targets if we can hold the above ranges:

1st target will be a break of the Dow over the 10,000 range
2nd target 10,500
3rd target 11,400
Extreme target 11, 7000.
These targets were issued back in Nov 2003. 

Originally written in Aug 20, 2006, this piece has been regularly updated over the years, with the most recent update occurring in March 2023.

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We have no organ at all for knowledge, for ”truth”: we ”know” (or believe or imagine) precisely as much as may be useful in the interest of the human herd, the species: and even what is here called ”usefulness” is in the end only a belief, something imagined and perhaps precisely that most fatal piece of stupidity by which we shall one day perish. Friedrich Nietzsche 1844-1900, German Philosopher