Middle East Wars: Escalating from Dire to Catastrophic Magnitudes

Unfolding Chaos: Middle East Wars Spiral from Bad to Worse, Entering Uncharted Territory

Middle East Wars: From Bad to Unimaginable

The use of force alone is but temporary. It may subdue for a moment, but it does not remove the necessity of subduing again: and a nation is not governed, which is perpetual to be conquered. Edmund Burke 1729-1797, British Political Writer, Statesman

Updated April 2023

When revisiting our publication from almost a decade ago, it becomes apparent that nearly everything we predicted has come to fruition. In some instances, the situation has worsened beyond our initial expectations. However, we couldn’t anticipate Russia’s complete domination of the Middle East then.

Regrettably, Israel failed to learn from the mistakes made by the United States in Iraq. Instead, they followed a similarly flawed approach of relying on unreliable military intelligence and hoping that massive bombardment would intimidate Hezbollah into surrender. This brings to mind the ill-fated “shock and awe” bombing campaign employed by the U.S. in Iraq, with the misguided belief that such a display of firepower would instil so much fear in the insurgents that future trouble would be minimal.

This tactic, however, proved to be a futile endeavour, resulting only in exorbitant expenses and unnecessary loss of innocent lives. Insurgent attacks increased significantly, nearly a thousandfold. Today, it is finally acknowledged that Iraq may be engulfed in a civil war, a declaration we made shortly after Bush declared the US had won the war. It takes only a modicum of intelligence to realize that all is not well when dozens of people continue to lose their lives each week.

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Escaping the Cycle of Conflict: Retreat from Middle East Wars

The world seems to generally refuse to sit down and study the valuable lessons history so eloquently provides. Israel relied on extremely faulty intelligence to bomb the building at Qana, resulting in a significant death toll of over 56 women and children. Now, Israeli pilots themselves are deliberately missing targets because of what they call faulty intelligence.

According to The Observer, several Israeli fighter pilots intentionally avoided targeting civilian sites in Lebanon due to concerns over flawed intelligence. These pilots were apprehensive about attacking locations mistakenly identified as Hizbollah facilities. Criticism of the Israeli armed forces’ performance and intelligence failures is increasing, with some questioning the results despite significant funding.

The article highlights how Hizbollah, previously dismissed as a weak force, has inflicted casualties on the powerful Israeli military, including losing elite troops. Major-General Dan Halutz, Israel’s chief of staff, had pledged to eliminate Hizbollah’s missile threat within ten days. Still, these claims are now being ridiculed as rocket attacks persist despite extensive air bombardments. The article also questions the accuracy of intelligence, as even with important information, the precise whereabouts of missiles and launchers remain unknown, raising doubts about identifying Hizbollah-affiliated structures.?’ Full Story.

Seeking Solace Amidst Rockets: Reflections on the Impact of Middle East Wars

What this campaign of indiscriminate bombing has done is only unify all the Muslims all over the world and also now several European nations against Israel. It has also immensely increased Hezbollah’s popularity, and individuals reluctant to support them increasingly rally behind them.

Another fact that most people are not paying attention to is that Iran is busy studying Israel’s ability to handle Hezbollah in the field. This information is being carefully analysed and filed away for future reference. What we do know for a fact is that the Iranians must be highly pleased by Hezbollah’s success in holding Israeli forces at bay.

The average Israeli was fed false information and told that this battle would end quickly. This is the same line used back home in the United States; look where we are now. Three-plus years later, we are still amid an insurgency gathering strength and threatening to eradicate the existing government. The Israelis did not take the time to find out how strongly equipped Hezbollah was; if they did, they did not pass this information to their people. Hezbollah has been using sophisticated anti-tank missiles to knock out Israel’s massive and solid tanks and is offering stiff resistance to Israeli soldiers. Most of the Arab world was surprised that Hezbollah could hold Israel back and provide such stiff opposition.

Israel’s Challenge: Facing a Well-Equipped Army, Not an Improvised Militia

Hezbollah’s highly advanced anti-tank missiles are proving to be their most lethal weapons in the ongoing conflict in Lebanon. These missiles can penetrate even Israel’s most sophisticated tanks, establishing that Israel is facing a well-equipped army rather than an improvised militia. The army confirmed that Hezbollah has utilized Russian-made Metis-M anti-tank missiles and possesses European-made Milan missiles. In just the past two days, these missiles have caused the deaths of seven soldiers and inflicted damage upon three Israeli-made Merkava tanks, which are widely regarded as symbols of Israel’s military strength.

Israeli media reports indicate that anti-tank missiles targeted most of the 44 soldiers killed during the four weeks of fighting. Yossi Kuperwasser, a senior military intelligence officer who recently retired, stated that Hezbollah guerrillas possess some of the world’s most advanced anti-tank missiles and should be considered as an infantry brigade supported by various units rather than just a militia.  nytimes.com

Note the origination of these missiles; Russia wants to be a power to be reckoned with, and we suspect their wish will come true relatively fast. Besides, remember that China and Russia have joined forces despite their dislike. Their hatred for the United States is much stronger.

The rage and anger this incursion of Lebanon has generated are enormous and almost at a level never seen before. All the Major Muslim countries are calling for an immediate cease-fire and investigations into Israel’s behaviour.

Muslim Nations Demand UN Probe and Condemn Israeli Aggression

On Thursday, the Islamic world’s largest organisation of countries demanded that the U.N. implement an immediate cease-fire in Lebanon and investigate what it called flagrant human rights violations by Israel. 

The leaders of the United Nations Human Rights Council are urging for a thorough investigation into what they deem as criminal acts committed by Israel, including killing civilians and destroying homes in Lebanon. They hold Israel accountable for the loss of lives and suffering caused and demand compensation for Lebanon and its people due to Israeli aggression.

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), led by Malaysia, has gathered leaders from 17 Muslim-majority nations to express their opposition to Israel’s attacks in Lebanese and Palestinian territories. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, representing the world’s most populous Muslim country, emphasized the need to halt the war to prevent radicalising the Muslim world, even among those currently moderate. He warned of the potential for a clash of civilizations, which he described as the ultimate nightmare.

The worst part now is those radical Muslim organisations all over the world have experienced a massive increase in the rate of enrollment. Worse still is that you have groups stating that they have dispatched suicide bombers to mount attacks in Israel and to attack Jewish Interests in countries that support Israel.

Group Claims to Have Deployed Suicide Bombers, Plans to Send More

Indonesian police have stated their intention to examine a radical group’s assertion that they have sent numerous Southeast Asian suicide bombers to attack Jewish interests in countries supporting Israel. The group’s spokesperson, Didu, disclosed that 217 suicide bombers, including 72 Indonesians and individuals from six other Southeast Asian nations, had already been dispatched. Didu further mentioned a forthcoming “passing out” ceremony in Pontianak, Indonesia, where over 3,000 “jihadis” would participate, with 200 immediately assigned to foreign targets.

However, the police expressed scepticism towards these claims and emphasized the need to scrutinize the group’s motives and objectives before accepting the veracity of their statements. National police deputy spokesman Anton Bahrul Alam stated the importance of conducting a thorough investigation and questioned whether anyone would accept their claims.

 

Whether the claim above turns out to be true or not is irrelevant, as it’s just a matter of time before such radical groups attempt to launch a series of attacks.

Conclusion

One could go on and on about the problems that have been and will be generated by the Israelis’ attack on Lebanon, but that would take forever. Things that we should remember are that the average Israeli is going to pay a hefty price for this war. Sadly, many of them are already paying such a price. The old and poor have been abandoned in cities and towns where most of Hezbollah’s rockets land; they cannot leave because they have no money and nowhere to go. So they sit and wait like ducks, hoping their buildings do not get hit. On both sides of the fence, innocent people are paying the price. It does not matter if an Israeli or a Lebanese gets killed; if they are ignorant, it’s simply one individual, too many.

In Israel and Lebanon, the most prominent victims are the poor, and these people already lead a rather hard life when things are everyday. Now they are being asked to die for no reason, simply because they do not have the resources to move away. The Middle-class individuals who can drive away in Israel are being put into cramped and stuffy bomb bunkers where living conditions are unbearable at best and unlivable at worst.

Elusive Peace: Fragile Agreements and the Peril of Future Conflicts

One must remember that it’s summer in Israel and Lebanon right now. However, one token of comfort is that the Israelis at least have bomb bunkers to protect them, while their neighbours are left in the open and have to hope for the best.

Ultimately, we fear this war will only make Hezbollah or some other Radical group like Al Qaeda 10 times stronger. It will also make Iran one of the top power brokers in the region simply because two major zones are in utter chaos: Iraq and Lebanon. In 6-9 years, individuals will sit back and shake their heads and ask themselves how they could have allowed something like this to occur. It will be almost impossible for long-term peace in the Middle East. There will be a series of peace deals between now and some major conflict, and each one will ultimately be violated.

Lebanon: UN Intervention Needed to Prevent Civil War

This attack on Lebanon has so weakened the Lebanese government that unless the United Nations takes an active stance, Lebanon could enter a civil war after Israel withdraws. If this were to happen, then Iran’s power would increase even more. Next, it’s just a matter of time unless some major truce is implemented between the three groups in Iraq before all hell breaks loose and the countries descend into anarchy, which will result in the division of this country into three zones: one for the Sunnis, one for the Shiites and one for the Kurds.

As soon this division takes place, Turkey will mount a full-scale attack in the north to ensure the Kurds are not in charge, and we suspect no one will attempt to stop them. At this point, total oil production in Iraq will fall to a quarter of its current exhibition (already down to less than half of what it produced three years ago). Once again, Iran will be too happy to see this situation unfold because it will make their oil even more valuable. Also, let’s not forget that they control the Straits of Hormuz, where over 21 million oil barrels pass through daily.

Iran must be smiling for the United States, and possibly Israel has speeded up events to a point where even if they took the strongest drugs on this planet, they would not have been able to envision a few years ago.

One last thing: Hezbollah has long-range missiles that can reach Tel Aviv and further. Why are they not firing them? The answer is that they are waiting for the command from the top Ayatollah in Iran. If innocent people continue to get killed in droves in Lebanon, expect this order to come shortly.

Amidst Conflict, a Family’s Yearning for Peaceful Resolution

We are tabulating the results of the Religious Provocation Index, and it appears that, in all likelihood, it will mount another new surge, putting the red line zone of 900 within breathing distance. If the 900 level is hit before the year ends, we expect the gates of hell to be opened, and chaos will be the rule of the day; we are not there yet. There is another possibility: some major peace deal could be brokered, and the religious provocation index could mount a steep correction. It’s obvious which scenario we at TI are rooting for; just in case there is any doubt, we would love to see this index mount a steep correction.

Mr Rashed, aged 40, is in a hospital bed surrounded by concerned relatives. Just two weeks prior, he had taken his family on a getaway to escape the constant threat of rockets, hoping to find some respite and clarity. However, the cycle of leaving and returning has become exhausting as he reflects on the current situation. Expressing his desire for peace, Mr. Rashed emphasizes that conflict cannot resolve anything and highlights the importance of negotiations as the path to a lasting solution. Full Story

Additional footnotes On Middle East Wars

This article was written several days before the cease-fire agreement and sent out to our subscribers. Since then, a very fragile cease-fire truce has been in action, which theoretically has already been violated twice by the Israelis; the main one was the failed commando raid.

One can easily see that this truce will last long as none of the European nations is willing to contribute significant troops. France has only provided a paltry 200, meaning the rest of the UN countries will have to make up the remaining 14800 troops needed. We sincerely doubt any nation will be willing to contribute a huge number of forces unless leading countries such as France start to take this matter seriously. The way the UN is dragging its feet means that no one truly takes this issue seriously. Our religious provocation Index (the only one of its kind in the world) has so far predicted the enormous increase in violence and terrorist activity in the Middle East and worldwide. We will publish this index in a follow-up article.

Alarming Rise in Iraqi Civilian Deaths

Over 3500 Iraqis were killed last month, more than the total number of military personnel killed in Iraq for the previous three years. If this is not a civil war, then we hate to think of a new definition of one. This country supposedly has been saved and is on its way to democracy.

The war, now in its fourth year, has had devastating consequences. Over 2,600 American soldiers have lost their lives, while many Iraqi citizens have also been killed. In the previous month alone, approximately 3,500 Iraqis died in acts of violence, marking the highest monthly civilian death toll recorded thus far. President Bush’s approval rating has reached its lowest point during his presidency, causing concern among Republicans who fear potential loss of control in Congress due to voters’ dissatisfaction. watson.brown.edu 

There is an enormous amount of anger in Israel now because the people feel like their government lied to them; they have every right to be angry because their government did indeed lie. This happens when individuals with minimal military experience take over; we are quite confident that if Sharon was still in power, he would have handled things differently. Olmert and his close allies continue to make rash decisions, and sooner or later, it appears that they will pay the price in the next elections when the Israelis decide it’s time for a change.

Violations of Peace Deal: Tensions Rise with Blatant Actions

They continue to anger the outside world and the U.N. with blatant violations of the recently brokered peace deal. If the Israelis were surprised by a Hamas victory, they would be shocked by the results of the next elections in Lebanon. We predict that Hezbollah will most likely win the majority of seats effectively all but sealing in their control of Lebanon. A Hezbollah win effectively means that Iran now controls Lebanon, and their power goes up by a factor of at least 6.

Some smart Israelis in the Government suggest that Israel start negotiating with Syria. The Syria-Iran alliance is rather weak, and if the U.S and Israel offer Syria a big enough bone, they will dump Iran. Israel could offer Syria the return of the Golan Heights in exchange for peace, and the U.S. could chip in with some economic incentive package. If they do this, they will have scored a huge strategic victory. The billion-dollar question is will they do this?

Long term, as we stated before, there is very little chance of a long-term peace deal; violence and war are going to ravage this part of the world for years to come. We also suspect that Iran will continue to build up its arsenal with the help of Russia and China, both of which strongly dislike the U.S.

Unveiling Opportunities Amidst Middle East Chaos

Finally, one must remember that every disaster brings forth new opportunities. Since there is a tiny likelihood of any form of long-term peace in the Middle East, a new range of investments other than precious metals will provide the well-positioned investor with a huge opportunity to lock in dramatic gains. However, given a choice between these investments and peace, we would vote for peace, but our vote matters very little; violence will be the order of the day for years to come.

We never take sides; we are not biased and only portray information from an observer’s point of view. To us, there is no such thing as a bad Jew, Muslim, Hindu or Catholic, Christian, etc. In this world, we have bad people who hide behind their religions. One should never globally blame an entire group for the bad deeds of a few.

Russia’s Assertiveness: Challenging US Influence in the Middle East

Putin has demonstrated that Russia is sick of America and has decided to put his foot down. In less than one year, Russia was able to bring some stability to Syria, apparently proving that America was firing bombs at empty fields as opposed to trying to stop ISIS. Over and over again, we see that America is more interested in helping terrorists and terrorist states than trying to bring peace to a region.

They destroyed Iraq and entered Libya, and the situation is now ten times worse than before; they sought to bring regime change in Egypt but failed, and they would have succeeded in Syria had Russia not intervened.

Look at the world in less than one month; China snubs the US, Saudi King ignores the US, the President of the Philippines calls Obama a “son of a whore”, and the list continues.  The days of America calling the shots are over; Russia and China will now lead the way in the Middle East and slowly but surely drive the US out of Asia and the Middle East. After that, we expect them to team up and throw America out of most of Europe.

The direct use of force is a poor solution to any problem; it is employed only by small children and large nations. David Friedman

Originally written on Aug 23, 2006, this piece has been regularly updated over the years, with the most recent update occurring in April 2023

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