Gold Bullion Bars Prices: Fear, Patience, and the Climb Ahead
Oct 29, 2025
“Gold like the sun, which melts wax, but hardens clay, expands great souls.” — Antoine Rivarol.
The subject is gold, that metal which has held human attention for millennia. Our previous piece traced the five uptrend lines in gold; this time, we deepen the story.
Global reserve flows now show central banks hold roughly 36,000 metric tons of gold—valued at around US $4.5 trillion—versus about US $3.5 trillion in US Treasuries. (Reuters) Gold’s share of official reserves has drawn up to about 27 per cent, while Treasuries sit nearer 23 per cent. (Reuters)
This is not simply a price rise: it is a reset of confidence. Treasuries once stood for safety and liquidity. They had the institutional aura. But what central banks now fear is not just debt or deficits—it is the erosion of trust. Washington has been spending as though tomorrow had no budget, yet the trigger for reserve flows is fear: the fear that Western systems will freeze assets or impose sanctions, the fear that the dollar-centric model isn’t immune. That shift is what drives gold’s re-emergence as a strategic reserve.
Look back to 2003-04: gold trading at US$470-510 per ounce was near a long-term uptrend line. Many flagged the eventual dive. Technical signals—negative divergence in RSI cycles—hinted at trend reversal, psychological inertia at play. Now, with gold near record highs (recently hitting US $3,790.82 per ounce) (Reuters) we stand at a similar pivot. The crowded narrative of price gain conceals the underlying flow of feeling: trust shifting from paper to metal.
We believe the recent surge in gold is not the final climb—it is a tentative ascent ready for correction. A pullback is likely —not a crash, but a tactical reset that creates a better entry. Given the geopolitical tensions, the likelihood of gold tracing all the way back to the primary uptrend line seems low. Instead, approaching the second central uptrend line offers a strategic starting point.
Of course, one barrier remains: the strength of the US dollar. As long as the dollar holds momentum, gold faces headwinds. Once the dollar confirms it has peaked in a multi-month cycle, the opportunity opens. That is when we load up on gold.
This is not about flight from price—it’s about timing around confidence and texture. Markets will continue to act in fits and starts. For tactical investors, the message is simple: the world’s safest asset is no longer unquestioned. That creates opportunity. But we don’t chase. In 22-going-on-23 years since this service started, we have never chased a stock or bought at market price—and we won’t start now. To chase is to bleed. It signals the absence of a plan, coherence and strategy.
Let the crowd chase noise; we position for clarity ahead.
When a new buy signal triggers, we will deploy into stocks, ETFs and bullion—but not before. Meanwhile, we scale into extreme oversold plays: those ignored, hated, and abandoned by the crowd because history teaches that mass psychology, vector flows, technical set-ups and real out-of-the-box thinking matter.
And yes, as commodity prices rise, governments chase them just as the public chases momentum and FOMO towards an explosive top. This market will crash—bank that—but the only question is when. The bigger issue is not to fixate on the future event while an opportunity lies at hand. The factors are not yet aligned for a crash, but they may align later. A sharp pullback (9-11% in the S&P, 15%+ in the Nasdaq) would cleanse excess and reset the stage. Then we act. Until then, we wait, we watch, and we lean without chasing.
Gold is reclaiming its ancient role—not as a speculative ticket—but as a strategic anchor. The story is not “death of the dollar” but the decline of unquestioned trust in paper. All currencies die; gold has kept its value more or less through epochs.
Conclusion: The Patience Before the Roar
Now is not the time to rush into gold bullion bars, no matter how seductive the headlines sound or how feverish the crowd grows. The story is real, the trend is intact, but timing still matters. Gold has surged as fear reshaped the global reserve order, yet even the strongest uptrend needs to release pressure. That process is already underway. The market must let out steam, and it will—through volatility, exhaustion, and short-term dislocation.
When the weak hands are shaken out and the late chasers bleed conviction, the stage will reset. That is when we will act, scaling into bullion, miners, and the metals complex at prices that reflect opportunity rather than emotion. Our stance has not changed in 22 years: we do not chase, we position. The crowd trades feelings; we trade structure.
Gold’s long arc is far from done. In the years ahead, the metal could push toward $9,000 per ounce, not as an act of mania but as the logical endpoint of fiscal decay, reserve diversification, and monetary fatigue. But it will not travel there in a straight line. The path will be jagged, punishing, and filled with traps for those who mistake noise for signal.
Patience is the hardest trade in a manic world, yet it remains the only one that pays. Gold will reward the disciplined, not the desperate. Let the crowd burn through its euphoria first. Then, when the air clears and fear returns to calm, we buy—not to speculate, but to own the one asset that never needed faith to prove its worth.
We have no organ at all for knowledge, for ”truth. We ”know” (or believe or imagine) precisely as much as may be helpful in the interest of the human herd, the species, and even what is here called ”usefulness” is in the end only a belief, something imagined and perhaps precisely that most fatal piece of stupidity by which we shall one day perish. Friedrich Nietzsche, 1844-1900, German Philosopher
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