If pleasures are greatest in anticipation, just remember that this is also true of trouble.
Elbert Hubbard
Gold Price Prediction: Focus On The Trend
Updated Jan 12, 2026
We first issued these warnings back in 2016, and frankly, we didn’t feel the need to revisit the gold market closely until 2019. Why? Because the investment landscape was rich with better opportunities elsewhere. We had already secured massive gains in 2011, exiting 90% of our precious metals positions near the peak. Since then, we’ve only nibbled at the edges, waiting for the right setup.
Back in 2016, the financial media was flooded with experts proclaiming the return of the gold bull. They pointed to high debt levels and a sputtering economy as proof that gold was destined to soar. It was a classic case of narrative over price action.
Predictably, the fear-mongering fell flat. Instead of launching into a new bull market, gold nosedived. Early that year, we warned our readers not to expect fireworks. We published several articles outlining our caution, but one key observation summed up our stance perfectly:
From February to March 2016, Gold behaved rationally: as the dollar weakened, gold strengthened. But then the correlation broke. Gold began making lower highs even as the dollar continued to slide. That divergence was a flashing warning sign. It signaled that gold was out of sync with the broader market rhythm. We correctly anticipated that the dollar would eventually bottom and rally, leaving the gold rally to fizzle out.
That initial strength in gold was a classic “bull trap”—a setup designed to lure in early optimists before crushing them. We warned that gold could see a final washout down to the $1,000 range before establishing a true, multi-year bottom. We refused to jump on the bandwagon then, and we maintain that discipline now. Until the trend turns undeniably positive based on our proprietary indicators, we remain neutral. Tactical Investor
Gold Trends
Let’s be clear about gold price predictions: nobody can consistently predict short-term price movements. It is a fool’s errand. Your odds improve significantly, however, when you zoom out and focus on long-term targets.
The strategy must be to track the long-term trend, not the daily noise. Obsessing over gold’s price today or tomorrow is irrelevant and stressful. There is no crystal ball for day-to-day volatility.
As the chart above illustrates, gold has been grinding upward—slowly, but surely. However, a crucial caveat is in order: over the next five years, we believe Artificial Intelligence (AI) sectors will vastly outperform gold. Gold should be viewed as insurance—a hedge against black swan events—comprising a small percentage of your cash allocation, not the engine of your portfolio growth.
Looking ahead, we expect gold to trade into the 1800 to 1870 range, with a potential overshoot as high as 2100. The technical trigger is a monthly close above 1650; if that happens, the probability of testing 1800 rises above 75%. Silver, historically the laggard, will likely start its run only after gold approaches its old highs. Until then, expect silver to underperform, offering traders a window to accumulate physical bullion quietly.
Gold stocks to consider
For those looking for exposure in the large-cap sector, Franco-Nevada (FNV) and Barrick Gold (GOLD) remain top-tier candidates.
For FNV, any price in the 95 to 105 range is attractive. If it dips below 84, treat it as an excellent buying opportunity.
For Barrick Gold, an entry below 18.00 is solid. If you see it below 15.00, that is a screaming buy. Use significant pullbacks to build positions in these industry leaders.
Two Smaller Cap Gold Stocks
Kinross Gold (KGC) offers potential. Entry points in the 4.80 to 5.10 range are good; anything below 4.20 is excellent.
Yamana Gold (AUY) is another play. Look for entries between 3.45 and 3.60. If it drops to the 2.80 to 3.00 range, back the truck up. Once gold bullion hits 1800, consider taking profits. Watch the gold bugs closely—if they are euphoric, the top is near. Wisdom dictates banking 90% of your gains when the crowd is cheering.
Random thoughts on Gold, Stock Market and Human behaviour
Institutions and individuals alike have poured billions into money market funds, driven by a cocktail of fears: interest rates, trade wars, government shutdowns, and political investigations. The narrative changes, but the behavior remains the same.
In January, money market assets surged to $3 trillion—the highest level since March 2010. This is a classic contrarian signal. It indicates that the masses, as usual, are rushing into safety at precisely the wrong moment. Pay close attention to herd behavior; the data they provide is worth its weight in gold. Sadly, the crowd consistently volunteers to be the market’s “cannon fodder.”
Attempting to save them is futile; they will likely crucify you for disturbing their slumber. To understand why the masses reject those who try to open their eyes, one need only revisit Plato’s Allegory of the Cave.
Big egos are big shields for lots of space.
Diana Black
Timeless Wisdom: Articles for the Modern Thinker
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