Gold Price Prediction: Up Or Down

Gold Price Prediction

If pleasures are greatest in anticipation, just remember that this is also true of trouble.

Elbert Hubbard

Gold Price Prediction: Focus On The Trend

Updated Feb 2023

These are the comments we made in 2016, and until 2019, we did not look into the Gold market closely because there were many other places to invest in.  Along the way, we nibbled at gold a bit because we banked massive gains in 2011 when we closed 9o% of our positions in the precious metals sector.

Many experts penned numerous articles this year proclaiming that the Gold market was ready to take off and that 2016 would be the year the Gold bull resumed its upward trend.  They spoke of our high debt and a weak economy and listed many reasons Gold was ready to soar. 

Needless to say, their fear-mongering proved fruitless, for instead of taking off, Gold nosedived.  Early in the year,  we stated that we did not expect much from Gold this year; we wrote several articles but will highlight points from one of them as it adequately sums our overall theme for 2016

 From Feb to March 2016, Gold responded accurately. As the dollar traded lower, it traded higher. After that, the situation changed, and Gold has been putting lower highs while the dollar has traded to new lows. This indicates that one market is out of sync, and this market is Gold. Thus, the dollar will likely bottom and rally again, while the Gold rally will likely fizzle out.

This initial strength in Gold is the perfect set-up to knock the early bulls out; we would not be surprised if Gold experiences one final move down to the $1000 range before putting in a multi-year bottom. We are not ready to jump on the Gold bandwagon yet and have maintained this position since we bailed out in 2011. The trend would need to turn positive before we turn bullish on gold, and so far, the trend based on our trend indicator is neutral. Tactical Investor

Gold Trends

Gold Price Prediction; nobody can predict the price over the short term. One might have a better shot when it comes to issuing longer-term targets.

The idea should focus on Gold’s long-term price trend, not its current price.  Gold price today or tomorrow is an irrelevant and stupid concept, for it will only increase one’s stress. There is no way to predict the day-to-day price movements of Gold accurately.




As shown in the above image, the price of Gold has been trending upward, albeit slowly but surely. Before continuing, we want to state that AI will make a far better investment than gold over the next five years. One should place a small percentage of one’s cash into gold to guard against black swan-type events and as a form of general insurance.

We expect Gold to trade to the 1800 to 1870 ranges with a possible overshoot to as high as 2100.  If Gold can close above 1650 on a monthly basis, then the odds are above 75% that it will, at the very least, trade above 1800.  Silver is expected to start running up after Gold get’s close to its old highs. Until then, we expect silver to underperform; hence traders can use this period to accumulate positions in silver bullion.

Gold stocks to consider

In the larger cap sector, we would consider FNV and GOLD

FNV Franco-Nevada Corporation daily Stock Chart

Any price in the 95 to 105 range would be considered attractive, and any below  84 would be considered excellent.


GOLD Barrick Gold Corporation daily Stock Chart

A price below 18.00 would be considered a good entry point, and any price below 15 would be regarded as excellent.  One should use strong pullbacks to add to one’s position in Franco Nevada and Barrick Gold.


Two Smaller Cap Gold Stocks

KGC Kinross Gold Corporation daily Stock Chart


Entry points in the 4.80 to 51.10 range would be considered good, and anything below 4.20 would be considered excellent.

Gold Price Prediction:AUY Yamana Gold Inc. daily Stock Chart


Good Entry points would fall in the 3.45 to 3.60 range, and excellent entry points would fall in the 2.80 to 3.00 range.  Once Gold bullion trades to 1800, investors should consider taking some money off the table. Pay attention to the Gold bugs. If they are euphoric, a top is close, and one would be wise to bank 90% of one’s gains.

Random thoughts on Gold, Stock Market and Human behaviour

Institutions and individuals have poured billions of dollars into money market funds. The apparent culprits were; Interest rates, the trade war, the government shutdown, Trump investigations and whatever other rubbish you can come up with.

Money market assets surged to $3 trillion this January, the highest level since March 2010, clearly indicating that the masses, as always, know nothing and jump into the wrong investment at precisely the right time.  Pay close attention to the masses, for the data they willingly provide is worth its weight in Gold. Sadly, the masses volunteer to be used as “cannon fodder” repeatedly.

Try to save them; they will likely crucify you to the nearest pole they can find. Watch or read Plato’s allegory of the cave to understand why the masses will never reward anyone that tries to open their eyes.

Big egos are big shields for lots of space.

Diana Black

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