John Hussman: A Track Record of Inaccuracy?

John Hussman

John Hussman and the Current State of the Stock Market

Updated March 2023

Updated views are posted towards the end of the article

Naysayers get it right once and use that one event to highlight their prowess; they purposely fail to list the countless times they were wrong in the past. Moreover, experts like John Hussman fail to mention that you had listened to them. You would have been bankrupted several times over in the process. They are only standing because they conned you into paying for this crappy. However, they did not act on it; had they acted on it, the dog house would be their home.

John Hussman, the president of the John Hussman Investment Trust, is a seasoned investor and a PhD in economics from Stanford University. He has warned that investors should not expect much in returns from stocks or bonds and predicts that the S&P 500 will return no more than 1% on average over the next decade. He believes the current market environment is “the most broadly overvalued moment in market history” and warned of a potential 60% plunge in the stock market.

John Hussman uses his own proprietary measure of the market, which looks at the value of all non-financial stocks relative to a specialized earnings measure called value-added. According to his analysis, the market is as overvalued as it was in 2007 and is just 5% away from its lofty valuations right before the peak in 2000.  Fortune

This is true, but one has to adjust to the mass mindset. What worked yesterday will not work today or tomorrow, especially in the era of forever QE. The last time John Hussman got it correct was over 16 years ago, which is probably the main reason he is no longer managing a billion-dollar fund.

Stock Market Outlook by Gerard Celente 

“We’re forecasting the economy is not going to rebound with the economic proposals that are in place now.  The global situation has created an environment for financial panic. The financial panic conditions have been in place for quite a while. Trump’s victory has played it off for a bit, but on the negative side, you still have the debt and interest rates going up and the debt that has to be paid. On gold, we believe right now is near its bottom.” USA Watchdog

Stock Market Outlook by none other than the expert with the most dismal record Marc Faber

2017 will be [when] the US Economic causes a World Economic Collapse! Trump can’t stop a dollar crisis, stock mark crash or gold and silver prices from skyrocketing! “

 Harry Dents Stock Market Outlook 

“While many economists will argue that gold is not in a bubble… and insist it will soar to $2,000, $5,000 and even $10,000, my research has said otherwise. I’ve never been more certain of anything in over 30 years of economic forecasting.”

Stock Market Outlook  from Peter Costa 

“I think that a lot of these stocks, big cap, small cap, they all got ahead of themselves. And I think there will be a correction to bring them back to some sort of normalisation in pricing, and once it gets back there, I’ll be back in the market.” CNBC

Marc Faber: The Broken Clock That’s Always Wrong

Stock Market Outlook  & Predictions by Laurence Kotlikoff

This chap recently sold all of his stocks. You should, too, he says, if you want to avoid a coming market crash.“If your stocks and long bonds are in retirement accounts, transfer them to short-term Treasurys,” he wrote. Seattle Times

Jim Rogers Stock Market Outlook 

“A $68 trillion ‘Biblical’ collapse is poised to wipe out millions of Americans.” Market Oracle

Stock Market Outlook from the Tactical Investor; we look at the trend, not the hysteria factor.

Insanity of the Experts and the Importance of Changing Your Angle of Observation

The video above exposes the fallacy of relying on so-called experts to predict the stock market’s future. Instead of providing sound advice, these individuals recycle the same outdated ideas and hope to strike gold occasionally. The fact is, they are often wrong, and their mistakes can cost investors dearly. Those who follow them are even more misguided.

As Albert Einstein once said, “Insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results.” In the case of market experts, they continue to make the same mistakes repeatedly, leading to poor investment decisions.

Mass psychology supports the notion that during a stock market panic, it’s time to buy, and during euphoric times, it’s time to sell. In a follow-up video, we emphasize that stock market corrections and crashes should be viewed positively, as they present an opportunity to buy stocks at a discount. Experts often exaggerate the risk of financial catastrophes, as fear sells and can lead to rash decision-making.

By changing our perspective and seeing market corrections as an opportunity rather than a disaster, we can avoid the fear that clouds our judgment and make better investment decisions. Let us not be drained of our precious energy by fear but instead use it towards more fruitful endeavours. Life is short, and it’s up to us to make the most of it.

Why Stock Market Experts Are Wrong About Market Crashes

Stock market experts are not always right about market crashes. They often sell during a crash instead of before, sacrificing long-term gains. This is because they are often too focused on short-term gains and losses rather than long-term growth.

One of the reasons why stock market experts are wrong about market crashes is that they tend to focus too much on short-term gains and losses. They sell their stocks during a crash because they fear losing money in the short term. However, this often means that they miss out on long-term gains.

This is where they are not so different from amateur investors. Stock market experts also tend to ignore the cyclicality of the stock market. They fail to consider that the stock market is inherently unpredictable, and a combination of factors usually causes market crashes.

According to Tactical Investor, stock market experts also fail to predict market crashes because they have a vested interest in getting it wrong. If they were to predict a market crash, they would likely cause panic and create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Instead, they prefer to keep spouting their false predictions, hoping they might be right one day.

Selling Before the Market Crashes

One of the ways to avoid making the same mistakes as stock market experts is to sell before the market crashes. This might sound counterintuitive, but it makes sense if you think about it. By selling before the market crashes, you avoid the panic that comes with a market crash. You also get to sell your stocks at a higher price than you would if you waited until after the crash.

Selling before the market crashes is no easy feat, old chap. It demands discipline and a long-term perspective. One must be willing to forego short-term gains and focus on long-term growth. It also requires having the mettle to hold cash when the market is overvalued instead of buying into the hype of a bull market.

Many investors fall prey to the allure of short-term gains, ignoring the cyclical nature of the market. They blindly follow the herd, only to be left holding the bag when the market inevitably crashes. It’s a classic case of FOMO, or “fear of missing out.”

However, those with a contrarian mindset can reap huge rewards. By selling before the market crashes and then buying back in at the bottom, investors can maximize their returns. It’s a strategy that requires patience, courage, and a willingness to go against the grain.

In today’s world of instant gratification and short attention spans, this contrarian approach may seem outdated. But history has shown time and again that it’s the best way to achieve long-term success in the stock market. So, don’t be a sheep, old sport. Be a shepherd and lead your portfolio to greener pastures.

Investing for Long-Term Growth

Another way to avoid making the same mistakes as stock market experts is to focus on long-term growth. This means investing in stocks that have a strong track record of growth over time rather than trying to make quick profits by buying and selling stocks quickly. By investing for long-term growth, you can avoid the temptation to sell during a market crash and miss out on long-term gains.

In conclusion, stock market experts are not always right about market crashes. They often sell during a crash instead of before, sacrificing long-term gains. This is because they are often too focused on short-term gains and losses rather than long-term growth. To avoid making the same mistakes as stock market experts, selling before the market crashes and investing for long-term growth is important. By doing so, you can achieve long-term success in the stock market.

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