Is the Trump bump real? So far So Good Right or ?

Editor: Draco Copper | Tactical Investor

Even as Stormy swirls, the president seems to have found his footing. Reporting from the White House press corps is that after a year of on-the-job training, the president is feeling much more confident and eager to follow-through on his 2016 campaign promises. Since the beginning of the year, he’s cleaned house at the cabinet level, taken a harder line on tariffs, especially on Chinese products, and is planning a sit-down with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un.

At the same time, Trump’s overall job approval ratings have been on the upswing

Since March 6th, Trump’s approval rating, as measured by the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average, has been slowly ticking up from 40 per cent to 42 per cent on March 27th. His disapproval rating has also ticked down over these last three weeks, from 56 per cent to 53 per cent. While a five-point swing in Trump’s overall job rating isn’t all that remarkable, it is noteworthy that it’s coming at a time of personnel and personal chaos for the president.

What’s remarkable about Trump’s approval ratings during the course of his presidency, is how volatile and totally stable they are at the same time. The Real Clear Politics tracking chart looks like an EKG read-out; there is a short spike, then a drop, a short spike, then a drop. For example, in July and August, Trump’s job approval deficit slowly climbed, from -14 to -20. But, in September, that deficit narrowed – going from -16 to -11. That surge and decline cycle continued in 2018, with Trump’s approval rating deficit rising in February, and then declining in March.

Survey Monkey’s Mark Blumenthal found

That Trump’s recent uptick in their survey data is coming mostly from Republicans. Trump’s job approval among Republicans went from 84 per cent last fall, to 88 per cent in 2018. Working to Trump’s benefit is the fact that Congress is pretty much done with legislating for the year, which means that the intra-party fighting over a policy that we saw over health care and then tax reform, will not be a factor. The issue of DACA could emerge as a pressure point for the party should the courts rule on the issue before the fall election. But, the drama around the president’s personal life or even his choices in cabinet personnel (which has been dominating most of the month) aren’t the kinds of things that push GOPers away from supporting the president.Full Story

How Long Can the Trump Bump Last?

The so-called “Trump Bump” on Wall Street has been pretty much based on hope. Talk of business-friendly corporate tax cuts, doing away with red tape and regulations and spending on new roads and bridges is all well and good. But those hopes need to turn into reality for the sizable 5%-plus stock gains since Election Day to stick.

That’s why the fate of the post-election rally could hinge on what President-elect Donald Trump does — and accomplishes — in his first 100 days on the job. Here’s what our Investment Roundtable panellists would like to see Trump do — and not do — after his Jan. 20 inauguration.

“Trump has already scared a lot of people … mostly on his foreign policy and international trade views,” says Rupal Bhansali, chief investment officer of international and global equities at Ariel Investments.

What Trump must do as soon as he takes office is dial back his more controversial views, she says.

“In the first 100 days, it would be a positive if he engaged Democrats, recognizing that even though the Republicans control both houses of Congress and the White House, that some reaching out across the aisle would be viewed as a very positive development,” says David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs.

“Any pro-business initiatives, such as rolling back regulations that would be good for corporate activity would also be viewed positively,” adds Kostin. Full Story

Everything Investors Got Wrong About the Trump Presidency

Here are five of the biggest investor misconceptions about the Trump Bump—and how you can tack your portfolio back to reflect what’s really going on

❌ Misconception No. 1

Trump’s “America first” policies were supposed to turbocharge the domestic economy, making U.S. stocks great again.

✅ What really happened

Shares of U.S. companies are up, but they are actually laggards when compared with foreign equities.

Since Trump took office in January 2017, the S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks has raced ahead 18%. But if you look around the world, you’ll find plenty of foreign markets that have lapped American equities during Trump’s tenure in office.

❌ Misconception No. 2

The reinflating economy would push interest rates higher, boosting optimism and investments in the U.S.—and strengthening the dollar.

✅ What really happened

The U.S. dollar has been sinking for much of the Trump presidency, making it harder for some U.S. companies to compete abroad.

Now, in the days immediately following the November 2016 election, the buck did begin to creep higher—a development that President Trump told the Wall Street Journal was partially “my fault because people have confidence in me.”

There is some truth to what he was saying. Sometimes trading in a country’s currency reflects the global market’s confidence in the health of that economy.

Yet since President Trump actually took office in January 2017, the dollar has lost more than 10% of its value against a trade-weighted basket of foreign currencies.

❌ Misconception No. 3

Large multinational corporations were supposed to be big losers under Trump’s populist trade policies, which were expected to make it harder for “elites” to move products and jobs across borders.

✅ What really happened

The multinationals are all right. In fact, giant companies that sell globally are likely to keep being big winners, regardless of Trump’s threat of a trade war.

Throughout the 2016 campaign, candidate Trump used social and traditional media to take a verbal hammer to global titans like Ford, Boeing, and Goldman Sachs.

But in the era of Trump, large stocks have actually outpaced small-company shares, even though small stocks tend to outperform over time. Multinationals “seem rather happy right now,” says Terri Spath, chief investment officer for Sierra Investment Management. Full Article

Is the Trump bump real? So far So Good Right?

At the same time, Trump’s overall job approval ratings have been on the upswing

Survey Monkey’s Mark Blumenthal found

How Long Can the Trump Bump Last?

Everything Investors Got Wrong About the Trump Presidency

❌ Misconception No. 1

✅ What really happened

❌ Misconception No. 2

✅ What really happened

❌ Misconception No. 3

✅ What really happened

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