Stock Market Monthly Trends: Next Dow Target?
The GP (Gnosis Panoptes) Index keeps experiencing mini surges. It has undergone three significant moves in less than 30 days (a very unusual development as the last time such a wave was experienced was over 90 days). If it experiences one more surge, we can state the odds of all hell breaking loose will surge significantly. The Rage Discontent index put a new high, and V readings are at an all-time high. Hence, a strong reaction is all but given; the only question remains how strong this reaction will be and if this reaction will occur outside or within the markets.
Outside the markets implies massive upheaval, possibly a mini civil war. Such an event will eventually impact the markets. We live in exciting times, and at this stage of the game, it is imperative to take the observer’s role; do not wear your emotions on your sleeves. If you do, it means the feelings are in charge, and you are just a mindless bot begging for the beating of your life. Since the inception of time, the masses have been emotional players. Their only function has been to serve as punching bags and cannon fodder. Try hard as you might. It is impossible to change this equation. Still, it is possible to escape the mass mindset if one chooses to do so.
Stock market monthly trends; Sentiment Readings Indicating short term top close at hand
Bullish sentiment is moving up and down but trading within a narrow ban. This suggests that sentiment readings could experience a blow-off top somewhat similar to market tops, which inadvertently would indicate that a market top is near. As this is an unusual market, we suspect this Yo-Yo action will continue until Bullish sentiment surges past 60. Examined from a different angle, Neutral and bearish players still overwhelm the bulls. Hence, the markets are likely to trend upwards until the bullish sentiment score is higher than the combined Neutral and Bearish score. Market update Dec 21st, 2020
Conclusion
On the weekly charts, the MACDs have experienced another bullish crossover. This setup will likely usher a test of the 1300 to 1350 ranges, with a possible overshoot to 1450. If the Nasdaq trades past 1350 on this leg, then the likelihood of a substantial correction would surge to the 70% range. A sentence in the 15% to 19% range is more likely than a correction in the 9 to 11% range. Market Update Dec 21st, 2020
The Nasdaq pulled back firmly in March 2021, setting the stage for a multi-week and possibly multi-month rally. Unless the trend changes, all sharp sell-offs should be embraced at this stage of the game. Current stock market monthly trends are bullish, validating that all sharp sell-offs should be viewed through a bullish filter.
The new bull market started roughly in March (based on conventional analysis). Hence it will end in March 2022, plus or minus three months. Based on this data and mass psychology, this bull still has the energy to run before it drops dead.
However, TI analysis states that a new bull only starts when the old highs are removed. The Dow traded as high as 29,169 before it crashed in March 2020. Hence, the real bull market has just started, and a new bull market can usually last from 4.5 to 9 years. Let’s assume this bull market lasts 4.5 years; that means it should end sometime in 2025. If it can last that long, then Dow 50K will be a walk in the park. The real question is how high the Nasdaq will run. Potentially by 2025, it could be trading on par or past the Dow. Hence, if you are a full-fledged Tactical Investor, robust to extreme corrections should be considered exceptional (mouth-watering) opportunities.
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