Riches come to those who seek it and not chase it. To those who chase it, rags are the only reward.
How to avoid a stock Bubble
The average person regardless of their education or lack off usually is on the receiving end of the stick when it comes to investing in the markets. The reason for this quandary is very simple and predicated upon the fact that the average person’s decision-making process is driven by their emotional state. Successful investing and emotions do not go together; it’s an awful mix, and the outcome is always the same; stress and loss.
To win, you need to destroy this sequence. Emotions should have no place when it comes to investing in the markets. Yes, it is impossible not to feel the emotion, but you can control the reaction. Instead of panicking and becoming one with the crowd, the strategy should be to break free from the crowd and take a position that is in opposition to that of the crowd.
Stock Bubble And Greed
We are going to illustrate the mass mindset by taking a look at a long-term chart of the NASDAQ. Stock bubbles like stock market crash come down to a perspective. One could view a bubble as a monumental opportunity in the works or a monumental disaster. It comes down to when you opened your position and your ability to identify if that stock will turn around. In general, if the stock was strong, then a stock bubble will eventually lead to a buying opportunity.
The diagram below clearly and effectively illustrates the dilemma and uncertainty the average investor inflicts upon themselves. The solution is dangerously simple, but its simplicity is what makes it so hard for the crowd to implement. One needs to throw one’s emotions out of the window when it comes to investing. Emotions should have no seat at the discussion table when it comes to buying or selling a stock.
Successful investing entails doing the opposite of what your useless emotions are so dramatically prompting you to do. There is simply no place for any extreme deviation from the norm when it comes to investing and euphoria and panic are extreme deviations from the norm. The same outlook applies to all the other major indices such as the Dow, SPX or major stocks such as GOOG, AAPL, WMT, etc.
Identify the emotion driving the markets & you can identify the trend
- This stock is going nowhere; it is hardly moving, and the fundamentals are weak. I need to find a high flyer one that can move and not this laggard.
- Pure luck, the fools who jumped in, will regret it. This is a false breakout. This stock is going drop to new lows. I am not going to waste my hard-earned money on this junk.
- Holy smokes, the stock, is still going up. Earnings are terrible, long-term fundamentals are not great, and the technical outlook is far from perfect. I think I will pass as I am sure, it’s going to crash and burn. I am sure is the secret code word for knowing nothing. Moreover, it is impossible to use technical indicators effectively if you are looking through an emotional lens.
- Thank goodness I did not buy; I knew it was going to crash. Instead of focusing on the fact that the stock is letting out some steam and building momentum for the next leg up, the mass mindset sees ’s only what it wants to see. Governed by useless emotions, it is unable to recognise the opportunity, as it has an almost unstoppable affinity for embracing the opposite. In this instance, the market did pull back, but a close examination reveals that the pullback is just the market letting out some well-deserved steam. In fact, the market ends up putting in a higher low, which is a very bullish development. The horde has an impeccable record at jumping into an investment when everyone is euphoric, and out of them when blood is flowing through the streets.
- Wait a minute, what’s going on here? The market was supposed to crash. Maybe I made a mistake in not buying. Well, it’s not too late; the picture looks good, and analysts are upbeat about earnings, so I think it is still not too late to get in. The masses need reassurances that all is well, but reassurances come only towards the end of the game. Finally, this chap musters the courage to jump in. Wow, it went up, great; I’m making money.
- I was smart to wait until things improved before getting in; it looks like the markets are going to take off. Let me call all my friends and tell them to jump in before it’s too late. Remember when everyone is happy, it is usually time to hit the road.
- What is going on; why is the market dropping? It’s only a pullback; I am not going to fall for this game again (look at reason number 4). It’s time to average down and load up.
- There you go; I knew it was going to turn around. I should have put more into the market. Next time, I will load up as this is the way to make money. Now the secret desire to lose syndrome kicks in. This guy is trapped in a euphoric mood and fails to recognise that the market did not trade to new highs. It put in a lower high, which should have construed as a warning signal. The mass mindset as we stated before only detects what it wants to spot. For this guy, the only thing that matters is that he made some extra money.
- It’s going down again. Opportunity is knocking, and it’s time to load up. Earnings continue to improve; all the analysts on CNBC are bullish, and therefore, it must be a good opportunity to put even more money into the markets. It’s time to back the truck and load up. I need to call everyone and tell them not to miss this opportunity. When you are sure about something, it’s better to sit out and wait. Overconfidence is a sure sign that you are missing something.
- The market is hit with a dose of bad news and pulls back very strongly. Ah, this is just a temporary development. The market will recoup and trend higher. I am going to buy more and average down. Gamblers always think of averaging down and hardly think of averaging upwards. All of a sudden, this chap has become an expert on the timing of the markets. Blind faith is one of the main ingredients the masses seem to have an endless amount of. If you trade the markets on faith, there is only one thing waiting for you at the end of the cycle; loss and despair.
- Now panic and dread start to set in. He questions himself. Did I do the right thing by buying more? Perhaps, I should have sold when I was in the black and booked those small gains I had. Maybe it is time to bail out and cut my losses. Things don’t look so good now. You know what; let me hold for a bit longer, maybe things could suddenly change. The outlook has to change; things were great, and how could they change so suddenly. The worst is over; it has to go up.
- Damn it, the market is dead. It’s time to get the hell out of the stock market. I should have never jumped in the first place and this is the last time I will ever invest in the stock market. Ironically, right about this time is when the markets start to give hints that a bottom is not too far in the marking. This individual is a bailing out when, in fact, he should be holding on. He is selling close to the bottom and allowing fear and anguish to direct his actions, just as he allowed joy to guide him into the markets.
- The market is going through a slow bottoming phase. Once this phase ends a new uptrend will begin. This guy bailed out very close to the bottom. At this point, of the game, he should have considered holding onto the positions, as he had taken on an inordinate amount of pain hoping for a recovery. Instead, he opts for even more pain and suffering by selling very close to the bottom.
Never let your emotions do the talking
When it comes to the Markets, never let your emotions do the talking. If your emotions do the talking, then your money will start walking, and it will walk away from and towards someone else. Misery loves company, but stupidity simply demands it.”
Emotions are nothing but perceptions, and these perceptions are based on the data your senses detect. However, one must not forget that perceptions are based on what appears to be real to you. Therein lies the problem, what appears real to you might not be real and could be just your distorted view of reality. Hence, if the data is flawed, the perception is going to be flawed, and the outcome is going to be negative. The only way to deliver your senses with clean data is to filter the emotional factor out of the equation.
The key ingredient to success is to have control over your emotions.
Therefore, you should not fixate on trying to identify the exact top or bottom because the data needed to arrive that conclusion is faulty. Therefore, your projections will always be wrong. The objective should be to separate delicate telltale signs that indicate when a market is topping or bottoming.
One way to determine this is to gauge the level of fear in the market. If fear levels are in the stratosphere, then a bottom is usually close at hand. You can fine-tune this art by mastering a few technical analysis tools. This will enable you to determine if the market is extremely oversold and if this coincides with a massive spike in fear, and then it’s almost a given that the markets will bottom shortly. If you look at any long-term chart, you will notice that every major correction or end of the world type event turned out to be nothing but a massive buying opportunity; hence, buy when the crowd panics and run when the crowd is celebrating.
Confusion is a word we have invented for an order which is not yet understood.
Mass Psychology & sentiment analysis provides insights into the stock bubble phenomenon
New Commentary Sept 2019
No change in volatility readings this week, but we see big changes in sentiment and the anxiety index is also confirming the move.
Now once again you get to see in real-time that the best time to buy stocks is when the masses are panicking. It is in such moments that the astute investors find real bargains. One needs to be patient for these opportunities and more importantly act when they present themselves. The last time this occurred was during the Oct 2018 to Jan 2019 period. However, (as usual), most investors will panic and fee for the hills, when less than two weeks ago, they were begging for a chance to get into the very stocks they are now running from.
Nothing changes and that is why the masses are destined to lose. If you examine every single bubble in history, the storyline is the same. If you are a new subscriber, this is the most important lesson you need to grasp. This is mass psychology in action; never follow the masses unless you are looking for a quick end