Is Inflation Bad for the Economy? Only if You Don’t Know the Truth

Is Inflation Bad for the Economy? Yes for the Ignorant, No for the Informed

July 25, 2024

The Inflation Conundrum: A Historical and Contemporary Perspective

Inflation, the general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money, has long been a heated debate among economists, policymakers, and the general public. While conventional wisdom often paints inflation as an economic evil, a more nuanced examination reveals that its impact is far from universally negative. In fact, for the informed and prepared, inflation can present opportunities for wealth creation and economic growth.

The Historical Context: A Century of Price Changes

To truly understand inflation’s impact, we must first examine its historical context. Looking back 100 to 120 years provides a fascinating perspective on how prices and purchasing power have evolved.

In the 1920s, many staple food items were significantly more expensive relative to income than they are today. For instance, a pound of sliced bacon in 1924 cost around 50 cents, equivalent to over $8 in today’s dollars. Compare this to current prices, where bacon can often be found for $5-6 per pound or less on sale. Similarly, butter and cheese were luxury items a century ago, with butter costing 50-60 cents per pound (equivalent to $8-10 today).

Eggs tell a similar story. In 1924, a dozen eggs cost 55-60 cents, or around $9-10 when adjusted for inflation. Even with recent price spikes, eggs are significantly cheaper now, often ranging from $2-4 per dozen.

These historical comparisons demonstrate that while nominal prices have increased, the real cost of many goods has decreased when accounting for wage growth and overall economic development.

The Behavioral Psychology of Inflation Perception

The perception of inflation is heavily influenced by behavioural psychology. Dr. Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel laureate in economics, introduced the concept of “loss aversion,” which suggests that people feel the pain of losing money more acutely than the pleasure of gaining an equivalent amount. This psychological bias can lead individuals to overestimate the negative impact of inflation on their purchasing power.

Furthermore, the “availability heuristic,” a cognitive shortcut described by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, explains why people focus on recent price increases in frequently purchased items (like gasoline or groceries) while overlooking long-term trends or price decreases in other areas.

The Lemming Theory and Inflation Fears

The “Lemming Theory,” named after the myth of lemmings following each other off cliffs, provides an interesting parallel to how inflation fears can spread through a population. Just as lemmings are falsely believed to follow the herd, even to their detriment, blindly, many individuals adopt a negative view of inflation without fully understanding its complexities or potential benefits.

Dr Robert Shiller, another Nobel laureate in economics, has written extensively on how “narrative economics” – the spread of popular stories – can influence economic behaviour. The prevailing narrative that inflation is universally harmful can lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy, where fear of inflation contributes to financial instability.

Inflation: A Non-Issue for the Informed Investor

For those who understand the nature of inflation and its long-term trends, it ceases to be a significant concern. Instead, it becomes a factor to be accounted for in financial planning and investment strategies. The informed investor recognizes that while inflation erodes purchasing power, it also creates opportunities for wealth accumulation through strategic investments.

Investing in Stocks After Market Pullbacks

Historical data shows that investing in stocks aftermarket pullbacks or crashes can lead to significant returns that outpace inflation. For example, an investor who bought into the S&P 500 at the bottom of the 2008 financial crisis would have seen their investment grow by over 400% in the following decade, far outstripping the cumulative inflation rate of about 20% over the same period. Similarly, those who invested during the 2020 COVID-19 market crash saw substantial gains, with the S&P 500 recovering its losses by August of the same year and continuing to climb after that.

The Golden Opportunity

Gold has long been considered a hedge against inflation. While its price can be volatile in the short term, it tends to maintain its value over long periods relative to fiat currencies. For instance, the cost of gold rose from around $35 per ounce in 1970 to over $1,800 per ounce in 2021, far outpacing inflation over the same period. During economic uncertainty, such as the 2008 financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic, gold prices often surge as investors seek safe-haven assets, providing protection against inflation and the potential for significant gains.

Real Estate: A Tangible Inflation Hedge

Real estate has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation. As the cost of living rises, so do property values and rental incomes. According to data from the Federal Reserve, median home prices in the United States have increased by over 1,600% since 1963, significantly outpacing inflation. For example, a house purchased for $100,000 in 1990 would be worth approximately $300,000 today, representing a hedge against inflation and substantial actual wealth creation. Additionally, real estate investors can benefit from rental income that increases with inflation, providing a growing cash flow stream.

The Gasoline Price Paradox

Gasoline prices illustrate a common misconception about inflation. Many people point to rising gas prices as evidence of harmful inflation, but a closer look reveals a different story.

In June 2008, oil prices spiked to an all-time high of $143 per barrel. It is adjusted for inflation, that equals around $214 per barrel in today’s dollars. Even with recent oil price increases to $120/barrel, this is still significantly cheaper in real terms than the 2008 peak.

Similarly, when gas prices hit $4/gallon in the U.S. in 2008, that was equivalent to over $5/gallon in today’s money. So even at current prices of $4-5/gallon, gasoline is cheaper than at its peak 14 years ago.

Inflation as an Economic Tool

For the informed observer, inflation is not merely a phenomenon to be feared but a tool that can be leveraged for economic growth and stability.

Dr Janet Yellen, former Chair of the Federal Reserve and current U.S. Secretary of the Treasury has argued that moderate inflation can ease the economy’s wheels. It can make it easier for wages to adjust to changing economic conditions and help reduce the debt burden over time.

Moreover, consumers may delay purchases in a deflationary environment in anticipation of lower prices, leading to reduced economic activity. Moderate inflation encourages spending and investment, contributing to economic growth.

The Power of Financial Literacy

The critical difference between those who fear inflation and those who can navigate it successfully lies in financial literacy. Dr. Annamaria Lusardi, an expert in financial literacy at George Washington University, has conducted extensive research showing that individuals with higher financial literacy are better equipped to make sound financial decisions, including how to protect their wealth against inflation.

Conclusion: Embracing Inflation as an Opportunity

In conclusion, while inflation can pose challenges, particularly for those on fixed incomes or with limited financial literacy, it is not the universal economic evil it is often portrayed as. Inflation can present opportunities for wealth creation and preservation for the informed and prepared.

By understanding historical trends, leveraging behavioural insights, and adopting sound investment strategies, individuals can protect themselves against the erosive effects of inflation and potentially profit from it. The key lies in education, preparation, and a willingness to look beyond short-term price fluctuations to long-term economic trends.

As we navigate an increasingly complex economic landscape, it’s crucial to move beyond simplistic narratives about inflation. Instead, we must embrace a more nuanced understanding that recognizes both the challenges and opportunities of changing price levels. In doing so, we can transform inflation from a source of fear into a tool for financial empowerment and economic growth.