Nov 21, 2025
What stands out is the two strong negative divergences on TSLA’s monthly chart, each one sharper than the last. If you’re shorting, use puts: they define and limit your downside risk. Every strategy begins with one principle: capital preservation. Before you play offence, build your defence.
Now, on TSLA, if you strip away the tariffs, most U.S. automakers would be insolvent: Tesla leading the charge. Their supposed crown jewel, Optimus, looks primitive next to China’s robotics edge. Iron Robot, Unitree, and others have already lapped Tesla’s tech. What Tesla sells now is narrative, not innovation. The laws of gravity apply to markets, too, and this one’s overdue for a fall.
XPeng IRON Robot
Kungfu Robot
Dancing Robot
TSLA:
Tesla’s likely to test the 225–240 range before any meaningful bounce. If market pressure builds, a drop below 200 would take minimal effort. The robotics threat is real and immediate. Look at Iron Robot and Unitree —they’ve already leapfrogged Tesla’s “Optimus. ”
China doesn’t need to source parts or negotiate for components: it owns the entire supply chain. That means lower costs, faster iteration, and complete production sovereignty. Once that dynamic scales, even Tesla’s robotics division will face margin compression and declining narrative power.
NVDA:
As predicted, China struck back: even a docile mouse fights when cornered. The U.S. misplayed its hand by cutting chip sales. They could have contained China by feeding demand; instead, they built an adversary. Now, Beijing no longer trusts the West. They’re mass-producing STEM graduates by the hundreds of thousands and closing the tech gap faster than anyone expected.
The Chinese government has reportedly ordered all agencies to remove existing NVIDIA chips and ban their use in government institutions. Their new AI cluster, though power-hungry, reportedly matches NVIDIA’s top-tier performance. And China’s energy policy supports it: cheap electricity, new incentives, and subsidies for domestic AI infrastructure.
NVDA is forming a large negative divergence, and if it completes, it could trigger a rapid pullback. The only way to stop this setup is for the stock to rally for months on end, which is possible but unlikely without it releasing some steam first.
Shorting NVDA requires precision and restraint. Use puts only. The stock can still climb on residual AI euphoria, but when the narrative unwinds, so will the inflated orders built on future projections, easy credit, and hype.
This isn’t a market driven by fundamentals; it’s a market built on illusion management. Remember, irrationality can outlast solvency, so treat shorts with respect. If you do short, use puts; they limit your risk. And when you act, consider LEAPS: they give you time, while short-term options decay fast. Aim for contracts with at least twelve months or more to keep the odds in your favour.
