U.K. Government Could Face Second Brexit Defeat-do the job

Editor: Philip Ragner | Tactical Investor

Random Musings: Second Brexit Defeat

Updated March 2023

One should never panic, for as we have repeatedly stated, the outcome is always negative once you panic. The long-term chart of the Dow clearly illustrates why stock market crashes are nothing but buying opportunities in disguise. The masses fail to understand that when you feel good about investing in the markets, the markets are usually dangerously close to experiencing a massive correction. One has to go against the crowd to succeed in the markets. There is no such thing as teamwork when it comes to stock market investing; teamwork does not pay and will ensure that you are always rewarded with a solid kick in the head. The masses cannot win as there is not enough money for everyone. Stock Market Crashes-Is Panic Warranted

The Government’s opponents in the Lords express confidence in a vote on a proposed new clause titled “Parliamentary approval for the outcome of negotiations with the European Union.” The key points of the new clause are:

1. The Prime Minister cannot finalize an agreement with the European Union on the terms of the UK’s withdrawal under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union without the approval of both Houses of Parliament.
2. Approval is required before the European Parliament discusses and votes on the agreement.
3. Prior approval of both Houses of Parliament is necessary for an agreement on the future relationship of the UK with the EU.
4. Approval from both Houses of Parliament is also needed for any decision by the Prime Minister for the UK to leave the EU without an agreement on applicable terms.

The expectation is that this approval will be secured before the European Parliament deliberates and votes on the final agreement. The opposition in the Lords aims to pass amendments to address issues where they believe a reevaluation by both the government and the Commons would be beneficial, building on their actions from the previous week. Full Story

May’s Unsettling Silence on Post-Delay Brexit White Paper Date

Theresa May’s reluctance to set a date for the Brexit white paper after a delay has sparked intrigue. In a clandestine Brussels summit, both May and EU leaders have supported a plan to retain British MEPs in the European Parliament if the Brexit deadline extends beyond March 29, 2019, as reported by The Telegraph.

This revelation injects fresh tension into an already divided Cabinet, setting the stage for a pivotal Chequers meeting to delineate a coherent British Brexit vision. Amid this, May’s plea for unity at a Conservative fundraiser on Monday underscores the fragility of the political landscape. Contrarian voices may argue that such adaptability reflects pragmatism in the face of intricate negotiations, a quality vital for achieving a balanced Brexit outcome.

Brexiting Britain: A Tale of Political Paralysis, Economic Slowdown, and Global Influence Erosion

Here is an illustration of how Brexit has been a defeat for Britain so far:

The Brexit referendum in 2016 was sold to the British public as a way for the UK to “take back control” from the EU. However, since the vote to leave, Britain has struggled to gain the upper hand in negotiations with the EU and deliver the benefits promised by Brexit campaigners.

Despite Theresa May’s insistence that “Brexit means Brexit,” she has faced repeated defeats in Parliament over the withdrawal deal. Hardline Brexiteers oppose it as leaving the UK too tied to EU rules, while pro-EU MPs argue it worsens Britain’s position relative to membership. This internal division has weakened the UK’s negotiating stance.

The Brexit process has consumed enormous government bandwidth, leaving little room for domestic policy initiatives. Business investment has stagnated amid the uncertainty, hurting economic growth. The pound has lost significant value against major currencies since 2016, driving up inflation and squeezing household budgets.

Though May continues working to get a deal approved, the March 2019 deadline is fast approaching with no consensus in sight. This raises the chaotic prospect of a “no deal” Brexit that could severely disrupt trade and supply chains.

In summary, Brexit has so far delivered political paralysis, economic slowdown and a loss of international influence for Britain. The vision of an independent, prosperous Global Britain securing superior deals around the world remains elusive. Brexit has turned out to be a more complex and costly endeavor than supporters predicted.