The Pitfalls of Group Think Psychology in Investing -

Group Think Psychology: Avoid the Lemmings

March 16, 2023

In the world of investing, understanding the power of mass psychology can be the key to success. This concept has been studied and observed for decades, tracing back to the early days of stock market trading. The mass mindset refers to the behaviour of individuals who tend to follow the herd and make decisions based on the actions of others. This herd mentality often leads to panic-based selloffs during market declines, which can cause further losses for those who follow the crowd.

To combat this group think psychology, contrarian investing is a strategy that aims to capitalize on the irrational behaviour of the masses. This approach involves taking positions that are opposite to the prevailing market sentiment. By doing so, contrarian investors can take advantage of market overreactions and identify opportunities others may have overlooked. This strategy requires discipline and patience, as contrarian investors may need to hold positions for extended periods to see a return.

However, it’s important to note that contrarian investing is not a surefire way to make money. Like all investment strategies, it carries risks and requires careful consideration. But by understanding the power of mass psychology and using a contrarian approach, investors can potentially identify opportunities for long-term growth.

The Mass Mindset in Action: Avoiding Panic-Based Selloffs

The masses tend to behave a certain way when investing in the stock market. They often follow the herd and do what everyone else does, even if it means making poor investment decisions. This herd mentality can cause them to panic when the market experiences a decline. Instead of staying calm and looking at the situation rationally, they surrender their fears and sell their investments. This panic-based selloff can trigger a further decline in the market, leading to more losses for those who follow the herd.

However, history has shown that those who panic and sell during a market decline often miss the eventual recovery. As the market starts to recover, those who panicked and sold are often left behind, while those who remained calm and held on to their investments benefit from the eventual rise in prices. Therefore, it’s essential to clearly understand the mass mindset when investing in the stock market and avoid following the herd and making investment decisions based on fear and panic.

Random Notes on Investing: Breaking Away from Group Think

Observing the ubiquitous mass mindset in action is like providing fodder for the cannon of loss. As the old adage goes, “misery loves company, but stupidity simply adores it.” The masses perpetually sell when they should buy and buy when they should sell. To overcome the fear of breaking away from the masses demands effort and patience. It’s not what you know that’s detrimental but, rather, what you think you know but don’t.

Additional Thoughts on Group Think Psychology of Investing

In the 1940s, British economist John Maynard Keynes famously observed that the stock market was driven not by rational decision-making but by the “animal spirits” of investors. This concept remains relevant today, as the actions of the masses continue to influence the stock market in unpredictable ways. While it can be tempting to follow the crowd during market upswings, it’s important to remain disciplined and avoid making impulsive investment decisions.

Investors can identify opportunities others may have overlooked by taking a contrarian approach and avoiding groupthink psychology. This requires a long-term view and a willingness to go against the grain, but it can potentially lead to higher returns over time. Remember, anything worth having in life requires effort and patience to achieve.

References:

These resources demonstrate that going against groupthink can be a valuable strategy in investing and that contrarian investing has the potential to lead to higher returns over time.

“The Psychology of Investment” by Lawrence S. Ritter, in which the author analyzes the behaviour of investors and the influence of group think: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2330515

Surviving and Maybe Thriving as a Contrarian: https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/how-do-life/202008/surviving-and-maybe-thriving-contrarian