Market Sentiment Today: Noise or Opportunity?
“The market is a mirror, not of truth, but of fear and greed—where the blind follow the blind, and only the few who see beyond illusion harvest the wealth of fools.”
March 19, 2025
Introduction: A Rare Sentiment Anomaly in an Overbought Market
A bullish sentiment reading of 18 isn’t just low—it’s exceptionally rare. As we highlighted in the last market update, there have been only seven instances in the past few decades where bearish sentiment reached such extremes. But that’s where the similarities end.
This could be the first time in history that we’re seeing such pessimism while the markets remain in overbought territory on the monthly charts—without a meaningful correction in over two years and trading near all-time highs.
Can Sentiment Data Be Manipulated?
Of course. Influencing sentiment data wouldn’t take much with the sheer amount of money in play. But here’s the crux of the matter—perception trumps reality. The masses don’t act on what’s real; they act on what they believe. If they think this data is valid, it is irrelevant whether it’s manipulated. Belief fuels action. And that action will eventually drive the masses and many so-called “elephants” back into the markets.
Don’t overestimate the elephants. Many of the biggest players are just as clueless as the herd.
There’s so much liquidity in the system that the true mammoths of the market—the biggest players—are forced to push prices far beyond expectations just to exit their positions. Every time they sell, it triggers a sharp pullback, forcing them to offload in stages.
So, what’s the play? Sacrifice a fraction of profits to push prices higher. Rinse. Repeat. Until they’re out.
Bullish Sentiment Takes an Unlikely Turn
Bullish sentiment has gone through several distinct phases, and now, it’s forming a channel pattern—oscillating between fairly high and normal but never reaching euphoria. If you were to plot this, it would look like a structured channel. Trend Blazer Update Feb 18, 2025
Bullish sentiment just broke the channel to the downside—an unexpected move, but nothing we weren’t prepared for. In simple terms, this confirms what we suspected: this bull market won’t just run on fumes—it’s going to binge on moonshine, coke, crack, and every abusive substance imaginable before it finally drops dead.
Market Sentiment Shift and Tactical Adjustments
The market lingered in uncertainty for an extended period before suddenly plunging into fear—an unusual development, especially at these elevated levels. This confirms what we’ve long observed: today’s investors are fickle, driven by folly and greed. When the real panic sets in, it won’t be a simple sell-off. They won’t just throw the baby out with the bathwater; they’ll burn the entire house down. But we’re not there yet.
For now, this irrational fear could set the stage for a powerful rally. A single positive catalyst could ignite a run lasting 15 to 24 months. This extreme bearish shift has already altered our original topping targets. And, yes, it could happen again if bullish sentiment surges past 60 and stays elevated for weeks on end.
Until the masses break free from this uncertainty, we’ll prioritise position trading specific plays over issuing new ones. When sentiment stabilises, we’ll adjust accordingly—but let’s be clear: the old normal doesn’t exist in a market fuelled by greed and desperation.
Many traders now see the market as their retirement plan—a guaranteed way out. That mindset ensures most will lose everything. Even seasoned players who understand mass psychology are falling into the trap, believing they can bend the rules. The moment you think you’ve mastered mass psychology is the moment the market humbles you.
You don’t become a master of this game. At best, you become an advanced student—because students learn while so-called masters fall into arrogance and end up as the very fools they once mocked.
