Job Creation And Destruction By Technology And Automation

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Job Creation And Destruction By Technology And Automation

Editor: Johnathan Meyers | Tactical Investor

You’ve seen the headlines: “Robots Will Destroy Our Jobs—and We’re Not Ready for It.” “You Will Lose Your Job to a Robot—and Sooner Than You Think.” “Robots May Steal as Many as 800 Million Jobs in the Next 13 Years.”

Such stories are tempting to take at face value. Who wouldn’t want to know if their livelihood, or that of their children, will soon be in jeopardy?

Here’s the problem: the findings cited emanate from a wide array of studies released by companies, think tanks, and research institutions. And their prognostications are all over the map. They’re coming so fast and thick, in fact, that we here at MIT Technology Review decided to start keeping tabs on all the numbers different groups have come up with about predicted job losses (and some gains) at the hands of automation, robots, and AI.
Of course, not all statistics are created equal. The most commonly cited numbers are from three places: a 2013 Oxford study (not listed in the table) that said 47 percent of US jobs are at high risk of automation in the next few decades, an OECD study suggesting that 9 percent of jobs in the organization’s 21 member countries are automatable, and a McKinsey report from last year that said 400 million to 800 million jobs worldwide could be automated by 2030.

In short, although these predictions are made by dozens of global experts in economics and technology, no one seems to be on the same page. Full Story

New automation technologies and job creation and destruction dynamics

This policy brief addresses the following question: is the labour-replacing potential of the technological revolution so far-reaching that it is inherently different from what has been experienced in the past, and on balance is an inhibitor rather than a generator of decent work?

Is the labour-replacing potential of the technological revolution so far-reaching that it is inherently different from what has been experienced in the past, and on balance is an inhibitor rather than a generator of decent work?

This policy brief addresses this question providing the following:

– a critical review of recent empirical studies on the effects of new automation technologies on jobs;

– a discussion of multiple job creation and destruction dynamics and how these can offset each other at different levels of aggregation;

– a discussion of the prospects for reshoring (a reversal of offshoring by multinational enterprises) resulting from new automation technologies;

– a closing discussion addressing the possibility of a bias of perception resulting from the anthropomorphic characteristics of many new automation technologies and – even in the absence of overall job loss – the need for progressive policies to address the probable tendency towards growing inequality and the challenge for workers of transitioning from old to new jobs. Full Story

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