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Random Thoughts
No one can claim to have mastered the markets fully and anyone that does lay claim to such a title should be avoided like the plague. For example, after QE all the rules changed and many time-tested indicators simply ceased to work because the operating environment had changed forever. The markets were suddenly hit with a force that they had never been hit with before. A fed that was determined to destroy any shred of free-market forces left in the market. This surprised everyone, and it even caught us off guard initially. Many so-called experts refuse to accept that they made a mistake or could be wrong. Bull Markets Vs Bear Markets & Arrogance
Robots will have an IQ of 10,000 in 30 years
That’s according to SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son. The Japanese billionaire spoke from the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Wednesday. In about 30 years, artificial intelligence will have an IQ of 10,000, Son says. By comparison, the average human IQ is 100 and genius is 200, according to Son. Mensa, “the High IQ society,” starts accepting members with an IQ score of 130.
The idea of machine learning becoming smarter than the human brain is often referred to as the “singularity.” When exactly this will happen is oft-debated among the tech community. Full Story
“Singularity is the concept that [mankind’s] brain will be surpassed, this is the tipping point, crossing point, that artificial intelligence, computer intelligence surpass [mankind’s] brain and that is happening in this century for sure. I would say there is no more debate, no more doubt,” Son says.
“When I met with Steve Jobs, before he announced the iPhone, he told me, ‘Masa, Masa, if you see what I’m developing, when I’m finished, I’m going to show you, you’re going to piss off your pants.’ And when I saw it, I actually almost did.”
Singularity and 10,000IQ Chip
Son’s company, SoftBank, recently acquired semiconductor and software design company ARM Holdings plc as part of his plan to ensure SoftBank is the company to reach the singularity. The $32 billion deal was secured so that ARM Holding would develop chips specialized for artificial intelligence. Son is convinced that he will have a computer chip that has an IQ equivalent to 10,000 in the next three decades.
With the establishment of the SoftBank Vision Fund, we will be able to step up investments in technology companies globally. Over the next decade, the SoftBank Vision Fund will be the biggest investor in the technology sector. We will further accelerate the Information Revolution by contributing to its development. Full Story
Computers Will Be Smarter Than Humans in 30 Years?
“There will be many kinds,” said Son, whose company spent $32 billion (£26 billion) acquiring UK chip designer ARM last year. “Flying, swimming, big, micro, run, two legs, four legs, 100 legs.”
Son added that he expects one computer chip to have the equivalent of a 10,000 IQ within the next 30 years
Japan’s second-richest man went on to highlight how SoftBank plans to invest in the next generation of technology companies that are developing AI with a new $100 billion (£80 billion) tech fund, which was announced last October and is called the SoftBank Vision Fund. Apple and Qualcomm have contributed to the fund, as has the sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia.
“I truly believe it’s coming, that’s why I’m in a hurry — to aggregate the cash, to invest,” Son said. “It will be so much more capable than us — what will be our job? What will be our life? We have to ask philosophical questions. Is it good or bad?”
Son added: “I think this superintelligence is going to be our partner. If we misuse it it’s a risk. If we use it in good spirits it will be our partner for a better life. So the future can be better predicted, people will live healthier, and so on.” Full Story
“With the establishment of the SoftBank Vision Fund, we will be able to step up investments in technology companies globally. Over the next decade, the SoftBank Vision Fund will be the biggest investor in the technology sector. We will further accelerate the Information Revolution by contributing to its development,” Son said in a statement.
“We believe the singularity is inevitable and all businesses will be redefined as computers overtake humans in intelligence,” Son said at an earnings briefing in November.
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