Fast Money, Fading Memory: Why Volatility Is Just the Surface
Jul 9, 2025
Today we’re doing something a little different. We’ll cover the markets, explore the velocity of money through a fresh lens—one that exposes why inflation became the beast it is—and then pull back the curtain on how today’s crowd operates in scroll, panic, and forget mode. It’s not just a distraction anymore; it’s a form of control. Keep the masses twitchy, flood them with noise, and they’ll never notice the real game being played behind the curtain. As Machiavelli might say, the distracted are easier to rule than the vigilant.
The Mother of All Buy Signals
Back to the markets: on May 7th, we triggered a Mother of All Buy Signals (MOAB)—a custom Tactical Investor indicator that’s maintained a 100% track record so far. Judging by the gains since, it looks like it delivered once again. Here’s an excerpt from that timeline:
Since the last update, we’ve had two sentiment shifts. The week before this one, bearish sentiment spiked to 60, then pulled back to 53 this week. Despite the volatility, bearish sentiment didn’t escalate. What changed? Hope—just hope, not certainty. As soon as deals start being announced, what was considered “rubbish” a month ago will start to sound promising. The market is primed for any positive news. Even half-baked developments will be embraced as good signs, and gradually, more favourable news will pour in, setting the stage for further gains. Market update May 7, 2025
So, where do things stand now? Well, as we stated to our subscribers over and over again, until bullish sentiment surges, pullbacks should be embraced. So, Trump rolling back on enforcing the tariffs provided the SPX with the impetus it needed to surge to new highs.
A weekly close above 5950 opens the door to new highs—a break below 5650 to lower prices. Market update June 8, 2025
Now that the SPX has pushed to new highs, the ideal next setup would be some clear topping action followed by a pullback. That would reset conditions and create a better risk-reward backdrop. Markets rarely follow the same script and this rally looks dangerously akin to the COVID rally.
The ideal setup would be a sharp pullback that forms a W-shaped recovery. But the market does not care about our ideals. If it comes to pass, that’s fantastic; if not, oh well, and we move on. Market update June 25, 2025
So, the ideal setup (keyword ideal) calls for the SPX to drop and carve out something like a W-shaped bottom. Will it happen? Only the market knows. Hindsight is the perfect tool for misery; it clutters the mind with useless “what ifs” and fake clarity about what should have been done. If hindsight really worked, every expert would be a genius by now. Foresight? That’s just the playground of fools who think they’ve got a front-row seat to the future.
What you can do is understand that fear is just a code word for opportunity. In this wild, volatile world of chest-thumping and geopolitical karaoke, everyone suddenly wants to be king of the mic. But the world’s handing out a different title: fool. A loud mic and a stage don’t make you the next top rapper—this isn’t Rapper’s Delight; it’s turning into Ratner’s Diarrhea. The key takeaway? While pockets of euphoria exist, it’s not a market-wide condition. A sharp pullback here would help reset the board and bring some sanity back into the mix.
Velocity of Money: The misunderstood force
Why wasn’t inflation a problem for years, even as the money supply kept climbing? One word: Velocity. VM was declining because the money was not moving. It was sitting on bank balance sheets.
Then came COVID, and with it, a tactical shift. Suddenly, lump sums were dropped straight into the hands of the masses. That changed everything. VM spiked, and that’s when inflation finally woke up.
Now we’re seeing signs that VM is starting to flatline. And like before, the effects don’t hit in real-time. There’s a delay. In the same way, COVID-era cash didn’t cause instant inflation; a flatlining VM won’t cool things instantly, but it will eventually. If it stalls out here, inflation should ease.
Need proof? Look back to 2008 and trace the money supply—it ballooned, yet inflation stayed muted. Why? Because the Fed kept a lid on VM. Then, they flipped the switch during COVID, fully aware of what it would unleash.
The long-term trend in VM remains firmly downward. Once velocity resumes its downward path, bonds should begin trending higher, and the inflation pressure that’s been gripping the system will start to ease.
The Attention Decay Crisis
It’s not inflation driving this market—it’s attention decay.
Dopamine loops. Volatility addiction. The TikTok-ification of investor behavior.
Scroll. Panic. Forget.
Repeat until numb.
This isn’t a distraction—it’s erosion.
They don’t think. They react. Fed by a feed built to keep them dizzy and obedient.
Truth doesn’t stand a chance when you’re swiping past it at 100 clips a minute.
Scroll, Panic, Forget: Why the Crowd’s Compass Is Broken
Something’s shifted, subtly at first, but now it’s gaining traction rapidly. It’s tied to what we used to call common sense, though by today’s standards it’s clearly become uncommon. What started as background noise is turning into a trend. And not a good one. The game today is simple: trigger maximum reaction with minimum action. Scare people, hype the hell out of something. Flood the feed, step back, and let the crowd do the rest.
The formula is straightforward. Grab attention, spike emotion, don’t worry about substance. Scroll through YouTube or any major news outlet: titles promising a gold boom, battery breakthroughs, massive rare earth mineral discoveries and so on. If even a fraction were true, gold would be collapsing from oversupply, rare earths would be dirt cheap, and Tesla would be obsolete. But the headlines aren’t there to inform, they’re there to provoke a reaction.
It’s dopamine bait. The titles almost never match the story. You’re hit with shock, then given relief. And by the time the dust settles, the crowd’s internal compass is off. The tactic shows up everywhere—media, markets, politics. Take tariffs, for example. Make the threat sound catastrophic, and suddenly a 10% levy looks like mercy. Same with inflation. Going into 2024, it was the top issue. Now it’s off the radar, not because it’s fixed, but because the fear was stretched so far that flatlining looks like progress.
It’s a pattern. Create panic, offer a lifeline, make people grateful for something that barely improves their position. Worse still is the rise of the overnight success story. Garage millionaires, TikTok traders, AI side hustlers. It sells the fantasy that money is everything, and it’s easy if you just follow the script. Meanwhile, real-world issues—wars, housing, and healthcare are fading into the background. It’s all treated like a “nothing burger.”
We’re sliding into a state where reality is just whatever scrolls past. Sound bites have replaced thought. And the hard truth? Most people either can’t or no longer care to tell fact from fiction.
The damage is cognitive. Call it synthetic dementia or cognitive fade—common sense is in a deep bear market. And here’s the kicker: while logic and awareness are collapsing, greed still hasn’t peaked. So, from a market perspective, that means the game continues. Embrace the pullbacks. Stay tactical. Don’t waste time arguing. Think in vectors, not friction.
That’s the crux of it. No matter the narrative being pushed, the endgame is always the same: to force you to pick a side. The moment you do, you’re trapped—you’re playing in their game, not yours. The only way to win is to step out of the box they’ve drawn. Once you pick a side, they’ll bombard you with worst-case scenarios, designed to make you panic, become enraged, or fall into learned helplessness. Each of these states makes you easier to manipulate, to milk. And the “solutions” or answers they offer? They’re always flawed. No matter what you choose, the outcome is negative, leaving you stuck in a cycle that feeds them and drains you. Market update May 7, 2025
The Simple Truth
Live below your means. Use the excess to invest. Let it compound. Everything else is a distraction.
Make sure you don’t miss the next update. We’re sticking with this new format—richer, sharper, more layered. We’ll show how the U.S. is tracking the Roman Empire almost to a T, using insights from real historians who studied its rise and fall. We’ll also explore the link between inflammation and inflation, alongside our usual market commentary. And yes, we’re working on a no-fluff, noise-free book on how to trade the markets. It’ll be simple.
