A hallucination is a fact, not an error; what is erroneous is a judgment based upon it.
Difference Between Bull And Bear Markets In This Case,
The only time this bull market will end is when the masses embrace it like a “lost love”, until then, all corrections ranging from mild to wild should be embraced.
The financial media has provided reams of data trying to lay out the case that this economic recovery is real. Many of the statistics provided do indeed support the theme that the outlook is improving. One must, however, keep these two facts in mind when looking at the data:
- The Fed poured huge amounts of money into this market. Minus the money, this so-called economic recovery would have never come to pass
- Due to the low-interest-rate environment, the corporation borrowed money on the cheap and poured billions into share buybacks since the crash of 2009.
Statistics lying for Now
Hence, while some of these statistics paint a rosy picture, the outlook is far from rosy as two key leading economic indicators have failed to confirm this recovery from the onset.
The Baltic Dry index is trading 92% below its all-time high. Now imagine the Dow was in the same position and the press instead of calling it a crash, made the assertion that we were in the midst of a raging bull market. You would think they were insane. Well, the same analogy applies today; this index clearly indicates that there is no recovery on a global basis and that hot money is creating the illusion of one. Remove this excess cash from the system, and the economy together with the stock market will collapse.
Leading Economic Indicators Not leading anymore
This once highly effective leading economic indicator appears to no longer work as the playing field has been altered. However, it is working, as it is indicating this recovery is nothing but a sham. It can longer be used as a tool to gauge the direction of the stock market or the strength of the economy because as stated hot money has altered the landscape.
Copper Indicating all is not well
Copper has been in a downtrend for the past five years. If one goes back further, one will see that copper-topped around the same time as Gold did back in 2011. It has been trending downwards since. However, it has experienced a little renaissance as of late, and it remains to be seen if this trend will continue. Copper has attempted to break out many times over the past few years, and each attempt ended in failure. One thing to keep in mind is that the Gold market is finally showing some early signs of life and the move up in copper could be in response to future inflationary forces rather than an economic recovery.
Low unemployment is one of the prerequisites of a strong economy
If you believe the data the BLS (Bureau of labour statistics) issues, the outlook is quite rosy. However, these chaps purposely omit individuals who have given up looking for a job and in doing so paint a false picture of what is going on. According to shadows Stats the unemployment rate as of May 2017 was 22%, which is in stark contrast to the Bureau of labour statistics 4.8% rate
Another difference between a bull and bear markets is bull markets are easier to play
If the economic recovery were real, then the Baltic Dry index would not be trading over 90% below its highs, and copper would not be trading at a price that is slightly above its multi-year lows. Additionally, real unemployment would be low and not north of 20%.
The manufactured data the BLS issues purposely omits a large section of the population and paints a false picture of opulence. Individuals usually stop looking for a job because they have been rejected so many times that they have come to believe they are worthless. There are stories of people submitting 100’s upon 100’s of resumes and not receiving even one response.
Difference Between Bull And Bear Markets: Bull Markets have more staying power
The fact that the stock market has run to such heights illustrates the power the Fed has over the economy and the markets. The saying “Don’t fight the Feds” comes to mind. Thus in the interim even though there is plenty of data that illustrates this economic recovery is illusory in nature, the stock market will probably continue trending higher for a bit longer.
Having said that we are witnessing the first signs of what could eventually lead to an epic meltdown. This is something that many experts were predicting from the onset and much to their dismay the market continued to trend higher.
However, we are broaching this topic for the 1st time as we have noticed very subtle changes in investor sentiment, the precious metals markets and commodities in general that suggest for the first time since 2009, a historic market correction/crash could be on the horizon. Subtle signs do not mean the stock market is going to crash tomorrow, so do not run out and short this market. In a future article, we will cover this topic in more depth. Also, the difference between a bull and bear markets is bull markets are easier to play
Mature Bull Still Running Strong
This is a very mature bull market and one that has been driven primarily by hot cash. Therefore, it would not be a bad idea if you have no position in precious metals to use pullbacks to add to your existing positions or establish one if you have none. Individuals willing to speculate can consider opening positions in some of the speculative beaten-down stocks in the Gold, Silver, and energy sectors.
Mass sentiment has to turn bullish; in other words, the masses will have to embrace this stock market bull before it kicks the bucket. Until that time, all strong corrections have to be viewed through a bullish lens.
Difference Between Bull And Bear Markets Article Update Aug 2018
Have you ever noticed how there is always a crisis around the corner? If it is not this, it is that. For example, if it were not for the illegal immigration problem that is being highlighted in Europe and America, there would be some other issue. We are not making light of the matter, but merely highlighting the fact that the media and the governments always seem to find a crisis to promote. What is left out is that the governments are the ones that fostered the crises they are now promoting.
According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), Global debt at the end of 2017 stood at $233 trillion; let that sink in for that debt is several magnitudes bigger than the combined GDP of all the nations on this planet. So what’s another trillion here or there; this debt will never be paid off. The only way to fix this would be for the entire system to collapse, but the end result would make the great depression look like a fairy tale.
The system will collapse but nobody knows when
The system will only collapse when the masses lose faith in Fiat and given the current trend the masses are not even close to this stage. If we had to take an educated guess, we would state that maybe when the global debt approaches a $1000 trillion the masses might be ready to challenge the system with a strong emphasis on the word might. This is another affirmation of why all market crashes should be viewed as long-term buying opportunities. Stock Market Predictions For Tomorrow: Crash or Correction
Tactical Investor Update Aug 2019 Update
If the Dow fails to hold above 27K (after trading above it) the pullback could range from medium to strong. A medium pullback would end in the 25,500-25,800 ranges. A strong pullback could take the Dow all the way down to 24,5K (plus or minus 200 points).
This outlook is based on the short to intermediate timelines; the long term picture is still bullish. We are not worried about a sharp or medium pullback for the only thing that changes is the opportunity factor. When the trend is up, strong deviations are viewed through a very bullish lens; in other words, the strong the deviation, the better the opportunity factor. If the above comes to pass, it will be a good time to test your resolve for it is easy to buy when the situation appears to be calm, but when it’s not most panic and run instead of embracing the opportunity. It’s amazing how when a market is soaring everyone wants to get in and pay more and more, but the same individuals that were willing to pay more are now afraid to pay less for the same stock. Market Update July 11, 2019
To sum it up the difference between bull and bear markets is that bear markets don’t last long and they end as abruptly as they begin. However, every bear market gives birth to a super bull market that lasts 3-10X longer and yields just as much in gains.
Bull Market Update March 2020
Now given the intensity of the current sell-off, the markets are likely to mount a rally, the first attempt usually fails, and if history is to be trusted then when this rally fizzles out, it should lead to another downward wave, that could take the market to new lows on an intraday basis. If the pattern is strong enough, we could issue either a short term put play or open up strangle position. This is where one opens up both a call and put but with different strike prices.
Don’t forget to keep a trading journal; the best time to take notes is when blood is flowing freely on the streets.
Watch with amazement how the hysteria over the coronavirus disappears just as fast as it was created once the objective of lowering rates and approving multi-billion bailouts is achieved. The data on the coronavirus indicates that the high mortality rate is only applicable to older individuals and we are sure when that data is further examined, it will be discovered that these older individuals are not in the best of health. In other words, they probably have existing conditions.
It appears that markets are experiencing the “backbreaking correction” one which every bull market experiences at least once and is often mistaken for the end of the bull. In today’s manipulated markets, one cannot tell which correction will morph into the backbreaking correction, as free-market forces have almost been eliminated from today’s markets. While it feels like the end of the world, such corrections always end with a massive reversal. Given the current overreaction to the coronavirus, there is now a 70% probability that when the Dow bottoms and reverses course; it could tack on 2200 to 3600 points within ten days. Interim update March 9, 2020
A dreamer is one who can only find his way by moonlight, and his punishment is that he sees the dawn before the rest of the world. Oscar Wilde
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The difference between a bull and bear markets is bull markets are easier to play