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Uranium Price: Is Uranium Ready To Rally
By any estimate, the uranium market is trading in the extremely oversold ranges, but when the trend is down, a market can trend into the extreme of extremely oversold ranges, and we have seen this occur many times in the past. The 15-year chart illustrates that the next layer of support comes into play in the $21.50-$22.00 ranges, so despite being extremely oversold the market still has room to trend lower. One positive is that the trend is about to turn neutral and if it does it would be the first move into the neutral zone in a very long time.
Taking a long-term view; a monthly close above $35 would be needed to indicate that a multi-month bottom is in place. From a contrarian perspective, uranium would start to look quite tempting at any level below $23.00.
On the five year chart, Uranium is has broken through former support (27.50-28.00) now turned resistance and it appears that almost all the ingredients are in place for a test of the $21.50-$22.00ranges.
Fundamentals Relating To Uranium Price
Uranium costs about $60 a pound to produce and yet mining companies can barely get $30.00 a pound for it. At some point, something has got to give, and that will most likely be the mines. More and more mines will close up shop and call it quits, and it is not easy to bring an offline mine online again; it takes time to get an inactive mine back online.
Countries like Japan, Germany and a host of other nations dreaming of giving up on Nuclear energy are well just dreaming. Japan is now re-embracing nuclear, as will Germany and or any other country with hopes to wean itself away from Nuclear power. It is either Nuclear power or Coal, and since these countries claim to be fighting global warming, they will rather embrace Nuclear than coal.
From the fundamental perspective, the picture looks quite compelling, but fundamentals tend to paint a falsely positive picture. If we take a look at Cameco, one of the top players in this sector, the technical picture is far from positive. Despite trading in the oversold ranges, the stock broke down after posting a surprise second-quarter loss.
The brown dotted lines represent the multiple levels of support the stock has broken through; in fact, the stock has just traded below is 2004 lows. We would not be surprised if it dipped to $8.50 with a possible overshoot to $7.20 before a long-term bottom takes hold. If uranium trades lower but Cameco’s stock price does not take the same path, it will trigger a positive divergence signals and such signals are usually indicative of a bottom.
Overall while there are many factors in the fundamental arena calling for a bottom, the technical outlook has improved and Crowd Psychology illustrates that this sector is still being ignored. The ideal strategy would be to use sharp pullbacks to add to or start a new position.
July 2018 Uranium Price Update
CCJ did drop to and below 8.50 which proved to be a huge opportunity for those who acted on our suggestions. So what’s the outlook now for uranium? The weekly chart above illustrates that CCJ is now approaching a strong zone of resistance. If it can close above 12 on a monthly basis, former resistance will turn into support and pave the way for a move to multi-year highs. A monthly close above 12 would also pave the way for CCJ to trade to the 20 ranges with a possible overshoot to 26.00.
Astute investors can use sharp pullbacks to establish positions in strong stocks such as CJJ. The trend is your friend for everything else is your foe.
Ability is of little account without opportunity.
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