Mastering The Boom and Bust cycle: Buy High, Sell Smart

The Boom And Bust Cycle

The Boom and Bust Cycle: Opportunity Knocking?

Updated October 2023

The boom and bust cycle is an inherent feature of economic markets, characterized by periods of expansion (boom) followed by contraction (bust). While it presents risks, it also brings opportunities for those who can navigate its dynamics effectively.

During boom periods, economic activity surges, and asset prices rise. Optimism and confidence are high, leading to increased investments and consumer spending. Innovation, technological advancements, and high growth rates often accompany this phase. However, excessive exuberance and speculative behaviour can lead to asset bubbles and unsustainable growth.

Eventually, the boom phase transitions into a bust phase. This occurs when market conditions change, leading to a slowdown or contraction in economic activity. Asset prices decline, investments dry up, and widespread financial distress may occur. Job losses, business closures, and declining consumer spending often mark this phase. However, it also presents opportunities for value investors, as assets may become undervalued during the downturn.


Navigating the Boom and Bust Cycle: Strategies for Investors and Policymakers


Diversification is a fundamental strategy for investors looking to weather the storm of the boom and bust cycle. By spreading their investments across various asset classes and sectors, they can reduce the impact of a downturn in one area. For example, a diversified portfolio might include stocks, bonds, real estate, and even alternative investments like commodities or cryptocurrencies.

During the boom phase, some sectors will excel, while others may lag. Diversification ensures that even if one industry experiences a sharp decline during the bust, the overall portfolio is better positioned to recover. This strategy provides stability and is particularly valuable for risk-averse investors.

Risk Management

Effective risk management is a cornerstone of surviving and thriving in the boom and bust cycle. Investors can employ several tactics to mitigate potential losses. Setting stop-loss orders is a proactive measure that automatically sells an investment if it reaches a predetermined price, preventing further losses.

Maintaining an emergency fund is also crucial. This fund should cover living expenses and unforeseen financial emergencies, preventing investors from selling investments at inopportune times and furthermore, conducting thorough research before investing is essential to understand the risks associated with a particular asset.

Long-Term Perspective

Taking a long-term perspective is essential in a world of market volatility. Focusing on the fundamental value of investments rather than short-term market fluctuations is key. This approach encourages investors to be patient and avoid impulsive decisions.

During the bust phase, asset prices often drop below their intrinsic value. Investors with a long-term perspective can see this as an opportunity to buy undervalued assets likely to be appreciated over time. This perspective also helps investors avoid the psychological traps of fear and greed, often leading to poor decision-making.


Regulatory Measures

policymakers play a crucial role in managing the boom and bust cycle. Implementing and enforcing regulations that promote financial stability during boom periods can help prevent excessive risk-taking. For example, limiting the amount of leverage financial institutions can use can reduce the severity of a subsequent bust.

Additionally, regulations that require financial institutions to hold sufficient capital reserves can protect the overall economy from systemic failures. Policymakers must strike a delicate balance, as overly restrictive regulations can stifle economic growth, but a lack of oversight can lead to devastating financial crises. Collaborative efforts between government and financial institutions are essential to maintaining a stable economic environment.


Historical Examples of the Boom and Bust Cycle

Historical boom and bust cycles provide valuable lessons and insights into the dynamics of market fluctuations. Two prominent examples are the Dotcom bubble in the late 1990s and the 2008 financial crisis:

Surfing the Dotcom Bubble: A Boom and Bust Odyssey

The dot-com bubble of the late 1990s serves as a fascinating subtopic within the broader theme of boom and bust cycles in the financial world. The meteoric rise of Internet-related companies marked this period, and it was underpinned by a fervent belief in the Internet’s potential to transform the business landscape utterly.

During this era, investors flocked to these dot-com companies, pouring billions of dollars into them with almost boundless enthusiasm. Profits and business models took a backseat to the allure of the digital frontier. Speculation ran rampant, and it wasn’t uncommon to see companies with little or no profits garnering sky-high valuations. It was a time when the traditional metrics of sound investing were often cast aside in favour of what could only be described as a speculative frenzy.

The consequences of this exuberance were, unfortunately, predictable. Many of these Internet startups failed to live up to their grand promises. When the bubble finally burst around the turn of the millennium, it sent shockwaves throughout the financial markets. Stock prices, which had soared to dizzying heights, came crashing down to earth. The fallout from this bursting bubble resulted in substantial losses for countless investors caught up in the euphoria.

Lessons drawn from the dot-com bubble provide valuable insights into the nature of boom and bust cycles. It highlights the importance of evaluating a company’s fundamentals, even in the midst of a euphoric market. This episode underscores the need to exercise caution and avoid excessive speculation when investing, as well as the necessity of recognizing the inherent risks associated with pouring money into unproven technologies. In essence, the dot-com bubble reminds us that while the allure of innovation is powerful, sound financial principles and a keen awareness of risk are fundamental to navigating the tumultuous waters of the financial world.

Unmasking the 2008 Financial Crisis: Navigating the Boom and Bust Cycle

The 2008 financial crisis was a pivotal event within the broader framework of boom and bust cycles in the financial sector. This crisis was not a single factor but a complex interplay of various elements that, when combined, created a financial storm of historic proportions.

At its core, the 2008 crisis was ignited by a housing market bubble that had been inflating for some time. Fueling this bubble were loose lending practices, the proliferation of subprime mortgages, and the securitization of risky loans. These factors combined to create a precarious situation where a housing market collapse became almost inevitable.

The repercussions were felt far and wide when the housing market bubble finally burst. Financial institutions, driven by excessive risk-taking and an underestimation of the systemic risks, faced a dire reckoning. The fallout was a cascade of failures among these institutions, leading to a credit freeze and a widespread economic downturn that transcended national borders.

This crisis was a stark reminder of the intricate web that ties together the financial system. The global nature of the turmoil underscored the interconnectedness of economies and financial institutions, emphasizing the necessity for better risk management on a global scale. Furthermore, it exposed the inadequacies in regulatory oversight, which had allowed this crisis to fester.

From this tumultuous period, several crucial lessons emerged. First and foremost, it highlighted the vital importance of responsible lending practices. It emphasized the need for robust risk assessment to gauge the potential consequences of financial decisions accurately. Moreover, it underscored the imperative for stricter regulations and improved transparency in financial markets. This crisis served as a wake-up call, reminding us that effective oversight of financial institutions is essential to maintaining the stability and integrity of the financial system. In essence, the 2008 financial crisis reshaped the financial landscape, leaving behind a legacy of hard-earned lessons that continue to influence financial practices to this day.

These historical examples demonstrate the risks of speculative bubbles and the subsequent busts that can have far-reaching economic consequences. They emphasize the importance of prudent investing, thorough due diligence, and awareness of the potential pitfalls of excessive optimism and market exuberance.

Studying these historical boom and bust cycles can help investors and policymakers recognize patterns, identify warning signs, and make more informed decisions. It underscores the significance of balancing risk and reward, maintaining a long-term perspective, and considering the broader economic and market conditions when making investment choices.


Market Moves: Government’s Impact on The Boom and Bust Cycle

Government intervention plays a crucial role in managing boom and bust cycles, aiming to stabilize the economy and mitigate the effects of downturns. Two critical tools employed by governments are fiscal policy and monetary policy.

Fiscal Policy: Fiscal policy uses government spending and taxation to influence the economy. During a bust phase, governments often implement expansionary fiscal policies to stimulate economic activity. These measures may include:

Increased Government Spending: Governments can increase spending on infrastructure projects, education, healthcare, or other sectors to boost demand, create jobs, and stimulate economic growth.

Tax Cuts Reducing taxes, particularly for individuals or businesses, can provide additional disposable income or encourage investment and spending, stimulating the economy.

Automatic Stabilizers: Certain fiscal policies, such as unemployment benefits and progressive taxation, act as automatic stabilizers. They provide support during downturns by increasing government spending or reducing tax burdens when economic conditions worsen.

Governments may employ contractionary fiscal policies during boom periods to prevent overheating and inflation. These measures may include reducing government spending, increasing taxes, or implementing tighter fiscal regulations.

Monetary Policy: Monetary policy involves managing the money supply and interest rates to influence economic activity. Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve in the United States, play a key role in implementing monetary policy. During a bust phase, central banks typically employ expansionary monetary policies, including:

Lowering Interest Rates: Central banks aim to encourage borrowing and investment by reducing interest rates, stimulating economic activity and promoting lending.

Quantitative Easing: In extreme cases, central banks may implement quantitative easing, which involves purchasing government bonds or other financial assets to inject liquidity into the financial system and lower long-term interest rates.

Conversely, during boom periods, central banks may adopt contractionary monetary policies to cool down an overheating economy. They may raise interest rates to curb inflationary pressures, tighten lending standards, or reduce the money supply.

Government intervention through fiscal and monetary policies aims to stabilize the economy, cushion the impact of downturns, and promote sustainable growth. However, the effectiveness of these interventions can vary, and policymakers must carefully balance short-term considerations with long-term economic stability.

It’s important to note that government intervention in boom and bust cycles is subject to debate, as different schools emphasize different approaches. Some argue for a more hands-on and proactive role for governments, while others advocate for free-market mechanisms to naturally correct imbalances. The appropriate level and timing of government intervention depend on various factors, including the specific circumstances, economic conditions, and the prevailing economic philosophy.


 Insights into Psychology and Behavioral Finance

Investor psychology and behavioural biases play a significant role in driving the boom and bust cycle. Understanding these psychological factors is essential for comprehending market dynamics and the formation of speculative bubbles. Several phenomena contribute to the influence of investor psychology on the cycle:

Herd Mentality

Herd mentality, a phenomenon deeply ingrained in human psychology, is the propensity of individuals to emulate the actions and decisions of the majority. This behavioural tendency has profound implications, especially within the realm of financial markets, where the ebb and flow of sentiments can sway fortunes and reshape landscapes.

In financial markets, herd mentality can take centre stage, often with dramatic consequences. When the majority appears to be reaping the rewards of their investments, it triggers a domino effect. Observing others profitably riding a wave of optimism, individuals often grapple with the fear of missing out, a sensation aptly termed “FOMO.” This fear propels them to join the herd, to take part in the enthusiasm and frenzy that can inflate speculative bubbles. As a result, asset prices spiral higher, seemingly detached from fundamentals and driven by the collective exuberance of the crowd.

Conversely, the same herd mentality can exert a downward force when markets turn bearish. As losses begin to mount, the fear of experiencing further financial pain grips investors. The instinct to preserve wealth becomes dominant, and this leads to a phenomenon known as “panic selling.” In these tumultuous times, individuals often look to the actions of their peers for guidance. When they observe others rushing for the exits, it reinforces their own fears, and they follow suit. This collective behaviour exacerbates the downturn, turning a market correction into a full-blown crisis.

The implications of herd mentality in financial markets are clear. It underscores the delicate balance between individual decision-making and collective action, demonstrating how the psychological dynamics of large groups can propel markets to astonishing highs and precipitous lows. Understanding this phenomenon is crucial for both investors and policymakers seeking to navigate the unpredictable and often irrational currents of financial markets.


Fear and Uncertainty: Amplifying Market Cycles

Fear and uncertainty wield a powerful influence over the landscape of financial markets, shaping the decisions and actions of investors in profound ways. These twin emotions, so deeply rooted in the human psyche, are the undercurrents that can steer the course of economic fortunes.

In the midst of a market downturn, fear takes centre stage. As asset prices crumble and losses mount, the fear of further financial erosion becomes omnipresent. This fear can set off a chain reaction of selling pressure, triggering a downward price spiral. In the depths of a bear market, investors, gripped by fear, often seek to cut their losses, and this collective response can exacerbate the downturn.

Moreover, fear is not confined solely to the realm of financial markets. It has a pervasive impact on economic activity at large. When uncertainty and trepidation are prevalent, investors and businesses tend to adopt a more conservative stance. Risk-taking diminishes, and the pace of economic activity slows. This shift in behaviour ripples through the economy, affecting everything from investment decisions to employment trends.

In contrast, fear takes a different form when markets are on an upswing. It metamorphoses into the fear of missing out, or “FOMO,” as it is colloquially known. This fear, coupled with the conviction that the market will continue to rise, can lead to a surge in excessive risk-taking and irrational exuberance. This behavior, driven by the belief that the good times will keep rolling, can inflate bubbles and create an environment where the moment’s frenzy often overshadows sound judgment.

The dynamics of fear and uncertainty, whether during market downturns or exuberant growth, underscore the intricate dance between human psychology and financial markets. Recognizing the profound impact of these emotions is essential for investors and policymakers alike, as it provides valuable insights into the cyclical nature of market behaviour and the often unpredictable fluctuations in economic activity.


Greed and Overconfidence

Greed and overconfidence, two potent human traits, are pivotal elements that can ignite and sustain speculative bubbles within financial markets. These characteristics often surge to the forefront during the exuberant phases of a boom cycle, propelling investors into dangerous territory.

In the midst of a market upswing, greed becomes a driving force. Investors caught up in the enthusiasm of optimism, tend to believe that the current trajectory of rising asset values is not merely a temporary phase but rather an unending ascent. This boundless optimism fosters a sense of invincibility, leading to a surge in excessive risk-taking. The mantra that “this time is different” reverberates, convincing investors that the normal rules of prudence and caution can be set aside. This unfounded belief that the status quo will prevail indefinitely can be the spark that ignites speculative bubbles as asset prices spiral to unsustainable heights.

Overconfidence, a close companion of greed, further exacerbates the situation. As investors bask in the belief that they possess a superior understanding of the market, they often underestimate the associated risks and overestimate their abilities. This overconfidence can cloud judgment and fuel poor decision-making. It leads investors to venture further into risky territory, neglecting the warning signs and dismissing the wisdom of a more cautious approach.

The interplay of greed and overconfidence in financial markets illustrates the significant role that human psychology plays in the evolution of market cycles. Investors and policymakers need to recognise these traits and their potential for distorting judgment and inflating bubbles. It underscores the need for a balanced and rational approach, even amid boom cycles, to avoid the pitfalls that excessive greed and overconfidence can engender.


Confirmation Bias:

Confirmation bias, a cognitive quirk ingrained in human nature, is a potent force that often shapes the behaviour of investors and can play a pivotal role in the creation of speculative bubbles. This bias leads individuals to seek out information that aligns with their pre-existing beliefs, conveniently sidestepping or discounting any evidence that contradicts their viewpoint.

In the context of financial markets, confirmation bias can have far-reaching implications. When investors harbor bullish or bearish convictions about the market, they are inclined to interpret information that validates their perspective selectively. This selective data processing can inadvertently amplify market trends, reinforcing the collective bias of the investing community.

During boom cycles, confirmation bias can lead investors to cherry-pick information that bolsters their optimistic outlook. They tend to focus on positive economic indicators, favourable corporate earnings reports, or success stories of other profited investors. In doing so, they strengthen their belief that the upward trajectory will persist, thereby contributing to the inflation of speculative bubbles.

Conversely, during market downturns, the same bias is at play. Investors with bearish views will be drawn to information that reaffirms their pessimism. They may emphasize negative economic data, corporate losses, or the stories of those who have suffered losses. This collective focus on negative information can reinforce the downward trend, deepening the downturn’s impact.

The existence of confirmation bias within financial markets serves as a reminder of the cognitive traps that investors can fall into. It emphasizes the importance of a balanced and rational approach, one that considers a broad spectrum of information, both supporting and contradictory, to make informed investment decisions. Recognizing the influence of this bias is crucial for investors, as it allows them to navigate the complexities of market behaviour better and avoid being swept away by the reinforcing currents of like-minded thinking.


Strategies to Beat Behavioral Biases

Education and Awareness

In the ever-evolving world of finance, it’s crucial to take an assertive stance and advocate for the small investor. The stark reality is that it’s often up to the individual, the “small guy,” to learn and adapt, or risk being left at the mercy of the big players, banks, and corporations. This dynamic underscores the importance of education and awareness, particularly when it comes to behavioral finance.

Investors, whether seasoned or just starting out, are not immune to the psychological factors that can influence their investment decisions. Emotions like fear and greed can cloud judgment, leading to impulsive actions. These are the very biases that can spell disaster for small investors.

However, the path to empowerment lies in education. Understanding the intricate workings of behavioral finance can arm investors with the knowledge necessary to recognize and mitigate these biases. By delving into this field, individuals can gain valuable insights into the common pitfalls that affect decision-making.

Education can shed light on concepts like loss aversion, overconfidence, and herding behavior. It can teach investors to pause, reflect, and make rational choices instead of falling prey to emotional impulses. By being aware of these biases and their consequences, individuals can take steps to counteract them.

In today’s financial landscape, where information is abundant and decisions are made in the blink of an eye, being educated about behavioral finance can be a game-changer. The small investor may not have the resources or influence of big institutions, but knowledge can level the playing field.

In this battle between David and Goliath, education and awareness serve as the slingshot that the small investor wields. By arming themselves with an understanding of behavioral finance, they can make informed, rational decisions and avoid the pitfalls that often befall the unprepared. It’s not just about surviving; it’s about thriving in the world of finance, even in the face of giants.



Diversification is a formidable strategy, especially for the small investor in today’s financial landscape. It serves as a countermeasure against the herd mentality and overexposure to a specific market or asset, which banks and corporations often exploit to their advantage.

Here’s why diversification is pivotal:

1. **Risk Mitigation**: Banks and corporations are well aware of the risks associated with putting all your eggs in one basket. Small investors who concentrate their assets in a single market or asset class are at higher risk. By diversifying, you spread your investments across various asset classes and sectors, reducing your exposure to any single point of failure.

2. **Herd Mentality**: Financial markets are susceptible to herd mentality. This is when a large group of investors follows a trend without much rational thought. Banks and corporations can steer these herds in profitable directions. Diversification, however, enables you to think independently. You don’t have to blindly follow the crowd, reducing the likelihood of making decisions influenced by collective emotion rather than solid analysis.

3. **Adaptability**: The financial world is dynamic, with sectors and asset classes experiencing shifts and trends over time. Diversification allows you to adapt to these changes more effectively. Banks and corporations, who are quick to identify these shifts, can exploit those who don’t diversify by encouraging them to stick to outdated strategies.

4. **Risk-Reward Balance**: Diversification permits you to balance risk and reward. While some investments may carry higher risk, others might be more stable. By spreading your investments, you maintain a balanced portfolio. This contrasts with banks and corporations that may push high-risk, high-reward strategies without considering an individual’s risk tolerance.

5. **Long-Term Sustainability**: Banks and corporations often push short-term, high-risk options that can be detrimental to long-term financial health. Diversification promotes a more sustainable approach. It’s about building a portfolio that can withstand market turbulence and provide consistent returns over time.

6. **Reducing Manipulation**: Diversification makes it challenging for banks and corporations to manipulate your entire portfolio. If they encourage you to invest heavily in one particular asset, their influence is limited. Your diversified holdings act as a safeguard against undue manipulation.


Long-Term Perspective:

Embracing a long-term perspective in your financial endeavours is not just a wise choice; it’s a vital shield against the machinations of banks and corporations that often prey on the small player’s lack of understanding in these matters.

In a financial landscape where psychological factors drive short-term fluctuations, it’s essential to adopt a steadfast, long-term approach. Such a perspective can serve as a powerful tool for small investors, safeguarding them against the pitfalls of speculative trends that banks and corporations often exploit.

Here’s why it’s crucial:

1. **Intrinsic Value Over Speculation**: A long-term perspective prioritizes the intrinsic value of investments. This means looking beyond the surface and assessing the true worth of an asset. Banks and corporations often push speculative trends that may seem lucrative in the short term but lack a solid foundation. By understanding the value of your investments, you’re less likely to fall into these traps.

2. **Avoiding Manipulation**: Financial institutions can manipulate short-term market movements to their advantage with their vast resources and market influence. They might create buzz around certain stocks or assets, driving up prices artificially. This can lure inexperienced investors into buying at inflated prices, only to see the value plummet later. With a long-term perspective, you’re less susceptible to being swayed by these tactics.

3. **Patience as a Virtue**: Banks and corporations often profit from the impatience of small investors. They encourage a quick-buck mentality, leading individuals to make hasty decisions. In contrast, a long-term approach encourages patience and discipline. It helps you resist the urge to buy and sell based on short-term market noise, which can lead to losses.

4. **Riding Out Volatility**: Short-term fluctuations are a playground for banks and corporations. They thrive on the panic and excitement of the market. By adopting a long-term perspective, you’re better equipped to ride out market volatility. You understand that market ups and downs are a natural part of investing, and you don’t panic or make impulsive decisions during turbulent times.

5. **Compound Growth**: Long-term investing allows for the magic of compound growth to work in your favour. By holding investments for extended periods, you let your money grow exponentially. Banks and corporations understand this concept well and use it to their advantage. When you embrace it too, you’re on a level playing field.


Risk Management:

Risk management is an absolute necessity for small investors looking to safeguard themselves against the manipulative strategies of banks and corporations. These institutions often prey on emotional decision-making and thrive during market downturns. Here’s why implementing risk management strategies is crucial:

1. **Stop-Loss Orders**: Banks and corporations are well-versed in exploiting emotional decisions made by investors. Setting stop-loss orders is your defence against impulsive actions. By establishing predetermined points at which you’ll sell an asset, you reduce the risk of significant losses during market volatility.

2. **Balanced Portfolio**: Small investors can be lured into putting all their assets into a single high-return, high-risk investment. Banks and corporations may encourage this behaviour to maximize their profits. However, maintaining a balanced portfolio is your countermeasure. It ensures that you spread your investments across different types of assets, reducing vulnerability to the downfall of a specific market.

3. **Thorough Research**: Banks and corporations often encourage hasty investment decisions based on surface-level information. In contrast, conducting thorough research is your tool for informed decision-making. By understanding the assets you’re investing in and the broader market conditions, you’re less likely to fall into their traps.

Now, addressing the role of investor psychology and behavioural biases in the boom and bust cycle is equally paramount. Here’s why:

1. **Emotional Decision-Making**: Banks and corporations can manipulate investors by leveraging their emotions. Fear and greed often drive people to make impulsive decisions. Recognizing the emotional triggers that lead to such decisions is essential. When you’re aware of your own psychological biases, you’re better equipped to counteract them.

2. **Market Volatility**: Understanding the psychological factors at play during market booms and busts is key to avoiding losses. Banks and corporations may capitalize on irrational exuberance or panic selling. By being aware of these emotional cycles, you can make more rational investment decisions.

3. **Informed Choices**: Investors, policymakers, and market participants who recognize the role of psychology in the market can make more informed choices. Policymakers can implement regulations to protect investors, and market participants can develop strategies that consider human behaviour.

4. **Psychological Resilience**: Individuals can develop psychological resilience by acknowledging the impact of psychology on investment decisions. This means being less swayed by market euphoria or despair and sticking to well-thought-out strategies, even in turbulent times.

In conclusion, implementing risk management strategies and understanding the influence of investor psychology are your armour against the manipulative tactics of banks and corporations. By managing risk through stop-loss orders, balanced portfolios, and research, and by being aware of psychological biases and cycles, you not only protect your investments but also gain the upper hand in making rational, informed decisions in the complex world of finance.


 Real Estate and Housing Market

The real estate and housing market is closely tied to the boom and bust cycle, as they are susceptible to cyclical fluctuations that can have significant economic and social implications. The relationship between the boom and bust cycle and the real estate and housing market can be observed in the following ways:

Boom Phase

Rapid Price Appreciation: The real estate and housing market often experiences rapid price appreciation during the boom phase. Low interest rates, easy credit availability, and positive investor sentiment can increase demand for real estate properties. This demand, coupled with a limited housing supply, can drive up prices.

Speculative Bubbles: The boom phase can also lead to the formation of speculative bubbles in the real estate market. Fueled by expectations of future price increases, investor optimism can drive excessive buying and speculative behaviour, decoupling property prices from their underlying fundamentals.

Increased Construction Activity: Strong market conditions during the boom phase can lead to increased construction activity as developers seek to capitalize on high demand and rising prices. This can result in an expansion of the housing supply.

Bust Phase

Price Corrections: The bust phase is characterized by a decline in real estate prices as the market corrects from the previously unsustainable price levels. Speculative bubbles burst, and prices may experience significant reductions, leading to potential financial losses for homeowners, investors, and financial institutions.

Reduced Construction Activity: During the bust phase, reduced demand and falling prices can result in a contraction of construction activity. Developers may scale back or postpone projects, leading to a decrease in the housing supply.

Increased Foreclosures and Distressed Sales: Economic downturns associated with the bust phase can lead to increased foreclosures and distressed sales as homeowners struggle to meet mortgage payments. This can put downward pressure on prices and further contribute to the decline in the real estate market.

Various factors, including economic conditions, interest rates, demographic trends, government policies, and investor sentiment, influence the real estate and housing market’s cyclical nature. The market’s sensitivity to these factors can amplify the effects of the boom and bust cycle.

It’s important to note that the impact of the boom and bust cycle on the real estate and housing market can vary across regions and submarkets. Some markets may experience more significant price fluctuations and volatility, while others may be more stable due to local factors and market conditions.

The relationship between the boom and bust cycle and the real estate and housing market highlights the importance of understanding market dynamics, conducting thorough market analysis, and considering long-term fundamentals when making investment decisions. It also underscores the need for prudent lending practices, risk management, and effective regulatory oversight to mitigate the potential risks associated with real estate market fluctuations.


 Commodity Cycles

Commodity markets, including those for oil, gold, and agricultural products, experience boom and bust cycles influenced by various factors. These cycles are characterized by periods of rising prices and increased demand (boom) followed by periods of declining prices and decreased demand (bust). Several key factors contribute to the dynamics of commodity cycles:

Supply and Demand Dynamics

Supply and demand dynamics are at the heart of commodity cycles, a subject that’s intricately tied to financial markets and investments. These dynamics are pivotal for small investors looking to navigate the intricate web spun by banks and corporations. Here’s why understanding them is vital:

1. **Economic Growth and Consumer Behavior**: Banks and corporations are quick to exploit shifts in consumer behaviour and economic growth patterns. Understanding that increases in demand, often driven by these factors, can lead to price increases during boom phases is your defence. Recognizing these trends and their potential impact on commodity markets makes you better equipped to make informed investment decisions.

2. **Oversupply and Weakened Demand**: The small investor can fall victim to banks and corporations promoting commodities during oversupply or when demand weakens. These entities can manipulate the narrative to their advantage. However, knowing that oversupply or weakened demand can contribute to price declines during bust phases empowers you to avoid these traps.

3. **Factors Influencing Supply and Demand**: Commodity markets are influenced by various factors, including changes in population, industrial production, technological advancements, and government policies. Banks and corporations stay ahead by predicting how these elements will shape supply and demand. By delving into these factors, you can anticipate market movements and potentially capitalize on opportunities or protect your investments.

4. **Government Policies**: Banks and corporations often have insights into government policies that can impact commodities. Small investors may be unaware of impending regulations or subsidies that could sway prices. However, you can adapt your investment strategy by keeping abreast of government actions and their potential consequences on supply and demand.

5. **Global Trends**: Commodity markets are also influenced by global trends, such as climate change, energy transitions, and geopolitical developments. Banks and corporations often have early access to information regarding these trends. Staying informed about these global shifts allows you to position yourself strategically in the market.


Geopolitical Events

Indeed, geopolitical events are a critical factor that can dramatically influence commodity markets, and understanding their implications is essential for small investors to shield themselves against the strategies of banks and corporations. Here’s why:

1. **Supply Chain Disruptions**: Banks and corporations often anticipate and adapt to geopolitical events faster than individual investors. Conflicts, trade disputes, and sanctions in major commodity-producing regions can disrupt supply chains. Understanding the potential for such disruptions enables you to assess the associated risks and make informed investment decisions.

2. **Price Volatility**: Geopolitical tensions in regions rich in specific commodities, such as oil-producing areas, can lead to supply disruptions. Banks and corporations often have insider knowledge of these situations and can capitalize on price volatility. Being aware of the impact of these events on commodity prices is your way to avoid hasty decisions driven by market turbulence.

3. **Diversification Strategies**: Geopolitical events can affect various commodity markets differently. For instance, trade disputes between major agricultural producers can impact the supply and pricing of agricultural commodities. By diversifying your portfolio across different types of commodities, you can mitigate the impact of geopolitical events on any single market.

4. **Research and Monitoring**: Banks and corporations invest significantly in research and monitoring of geopolitical events. Small investors should follow suit, staying informed about global political developments that may affect commodity markets. Online sources, news, and analytical reports can be valuable tools in your investment arsenal.

5. **Risk Assessment**: Geopolitical events can introduce both opportunities and risks. Banks and corporations are adept at identifying these. By assessing the risks associated with certain commodities in light of geopolitical events, you can make more strategic choices that align with your risk tolerance and financial goals.


Global Economic Conditions

Understanding the profound connection between commodity markets and global economic conditions is vital for small investors to navigate the intricacies of finance and protect themselves against the strategies of banks and corporations. Here’s why this understanding is crucial:

1. **Economic Growth and Demand**: Commodity markets are intricately tied to economic growth. During expansions, commodity demand rises as they are crucial inputs in various industries. Banks and corporations often exploit these shifts to their advantage. Recognizing this relationship helps you anticipate changes in commodity demand and make informed investment decisions.

2. **Economic Contractions and Reduced Demand**: In contrast, economic downturns can lead to reduced commodity demand, resulting in lower prices. Banks and corporations may manipulate narratives during these times. Understanding the impact of economic contractions on commodity markets allows you to take protective measures and potentially identify opportunities.

3. **Key Economic Indicators**: Factors like GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and consumer sentiment directly impact commodity markets. Banks and corporations closely monitor these indicators, often acting on their insights before the broader public. As a small investor, keeping an eye on these economic indicators empowers you to make timely and strategic decisions.

4. **Diversification for Risk Mitigation**: Given the correlation between commodity markets and economic conditions, diversification remains a key strategy. Different commodities can respond differently to economic shifts. By diversifying your portfolio, you mitigate the impact of economic fluctuations on any single market.

5. **Risk Assessment**: Banks and corporations often analyze the relationship between economic conditions and commodity markets to assess risk and reward. Small investors should follow suit. Recognizing the risks associated with various commodities based on economic conditions can guide your investment choices in alignment with your financial goals and risk tolerance.

In conclusion, global economic conditions are a pivotal factor influencing commodity markets, and they often serve as a playground for financial institutions to exercise their strategies. Small investors must grasp the profound connection between economic growth, demand, and commodity prices. By staying informed about key economic indicators, diversifying wisely, and assessing risks, you protect your investments and gain a strategic advantage in navigating the complexities of commodity markets within the broader financial landscape.


Speculative Trading and Investor Sentiment

Speculative trading and investor sentiment can contribute to the volatility and amplification of commodity cycles. Investors and speculators often participate in commodity markets to profit from price movements. Their actions can influence short-term price fluctuations, leading to increased volatility. Sentiment indicators, such as optimism or pessimism about future market conditions, can also impact investor behaviour and drive price movements.

It is important to note that different commodities may have unique characteristics and factors influencing their boom and bust cycles. For example, oil prices can be affected by factors such as OPEC production decisions, geopolitical tensions, and global energy policies. On the other hand, gold prices are influenced by factors such as inflation, currency fluctuations, and safe-haven demand during economic uncertainty.

Understanding commodity cycle patterns, drivers, and historical precedents can help investors and policymakers make informed decisions. For investors, it is crucial to conduct thorough research, monitor supply and demand dynamics, and assess geopolitical and economic factors when considering commodity investments. Policymakers can manage commodity cycles through regulatory measures, promote market transparency, and address supply and demand imbalances.

While commodity cycles present risks, they also offer opportunities for investors who can effectively navigate their complexities. By understanding the drivers of commodity cycles and adopting a long-term perspective, individuals and institutions can position themselves to capitalize on the opportunities and mitigate the associated risks.


The Media: A Fiery Conductor of Boom and Bust Cycles

The media, like a fiery conductor, plays a captivating role in the boom and bust cycles of the financial world. Their influence is akin to a blazing flame, igniting speculation and fear and driving market dynamics to new heights or plunging depths.

The media can shape perceptions and steer market sentiment with each headline and breaking news alert. They can transform a steady ascent into a euphoric surge, fueling investor optimism and driving markets to dizzying heights. Conversely, a minor hiccup can be amplified into a catastrophic plunge as fear and panic spread like wildfire through the media’s narrative.

Like a skilled maestro, the media’s impact cannot be underestimated. Their words, images, and soundbites set the tone for the financial symphony. They can sway the audience, from individual investors to large institutions, who eagerly follow their lead.

In this tumultuous theatre of finance, it is crucial to recognize the media’s role in shaping the narrative. They hold the spotlight, directing the booms and busts of the financial world with their storytelling prowess. Their influence can be both exhilarating and unnerving as they guide the market’s movements with their words and analysis.

As we navigate this ever-changing stage, we must maintain a critical eye and discern the underlying truths amidst the media’s dramatic performance. While their influence is undeniable, conducting thorough research, seeking multiple perspectives, and making informed decisions based on a comprehensive market understanding is essential.

Remember, the media’s role is to captivate and engage, but it is up to us as investors to maintain a steady hand and make rational choices. By staying informed, analyzing data, and considering a variety of sources, we can confidently navigate the market’s twists and turns.

In this grand theatre of finance, where the media takes centre stage, let us be discerning audience members, appreciating the spectacle while maintaining a clear understanding of the underlying dynamics. Doing so, we can navigate the boom and bust cycles with resilience and seize opportunities amidst the ever-changing financial symphony.

Some key aspects to consider regarding the media’s impact

Information Dissemination and the Manipulation of the Small Investor

In the world of finance, information is power. It can make or break investments, drive market sentiment, and ultimately influence the fortunes of the small investor. However, what we often witness in today’s media landscape is a distortion of this information, intentionally or unintentionally, to the detriment of the small guy.

The media, encompassing news outlets, financial publications, and online platforms, undoubtedly plays a pivotal role in disseminating information about the economy, financial markets, and individual companies. Real-time updates, expert analyses, and market insights are just a click away in this digital age. But the true concern lies in how this information is presented and sometimes manipulated.

While the media claims to provide objective reporting and unbiased analysis, the reality can differ. Media outlets often have their interests, advertisers, or affiliations with influential players in the financial world. This can lead to a subtle, sometimes not-so-subtle, bias in their coverage. This bias can manifest in various ways, such as sensationalism, cherry-picking data, or even spreading unfounded rumours.

All of these tactics can significantly impact the small investor. Sensational headlines can create panic or euphoria, leading to impulsive trading decisions that ultimately hurt individual portfolios. Cherry-picked data can be used to support a particular narrative, whether it’s the strength of a company’s stock or the market’s overall health. This selective reporting can mislead small investors, causing them to invest based on incomplete or skewed information. And unfounded rumours can send shockwaves through the market, triggering waves of buying or selling that are not grounded in reality.

The small investor, often without institutional players’ resources and information access, is particularly vulnerable to these manipulations. They rely on the media to make informed decisions about their investments. When the media distorts or sensationalizes information, it puts the small guy at a disadvantage, potentially leading to significant financial losses.

So, advocating for the small investor means demanding transparency, objectivity, and accountability from the media. It means being aware of the biases in the sources we turn to for financial information. It means fact-checking and critically analyzing the information we receive. In this era of information overload, the small investor must be vigilant and discerning to navigate the complex landscape of financial media.


Market Narratives and the Impact on Investor Sentiment

In the ever-evolving finance landscape, the media wields a substantial influence in shaping market narratives and, consequently, steering investor sentiment. Whether it’s optimistic portrayals of economic indicators, glowing reviews of corporate earnings, or dire warnings of geopolitical events, the media’s ability to craft these narratives has a profound impact on how market participants perceive and act on the information presented.

The power of media in driving investor sentiment cannot be understated. When media outlets choose to deliver positive news, highlighting robust economic indicators or stellar corporate earnings reports, it tends to ignite a sense of optimism among investors. This optimism, in turn, can spark exuberance in the markets, propelling stock prices to new heights as investors flock to seize the opportunities they perceive.

Conversely, a darker narrative painted with pessimism can induce fear and trepidation among investors. Negative portrayals of economic indicators or cautionary tales about geopolitical events can catalyse price declines. In this scenario, the prevailing sentiment can become a self-fulfilling prophecy as investors react to the media’s bleak perspective by selling off assets, which in turn drives down prices further.

The impact of these media-driven narratives goes beyond just short-term market movements. They can lead to longer-term trends and cycles. For instance, a continuous stream of positive news can create a bull market where prices keep rising and investor confidence remains high. Conversely, a series of negative reports can set off a bear market characterized by falling prices and a widespread sense of pessimism.

This dynamic is especially pertinent to the small investor. They often rely heavily on the media’s information to make investment decisions. Therefore, when the media crafts narratives that are either overly optimistic or excessively pessimistic, it can have a significant influence on the small investor’s portfolio.

Advocating for the small investor in this context requires a critical approach to media narratives. It involves recognizing the potential biases or sensationalism that can exist in how the news is presented. The small investor must develop the ability to discern between objective reporting and editorializing. This means not taking media narratives at face value and conducting thorough research and analysis before making investment decisions.


Herd Mentality and Its Amplification by the Media

In the world of finance, the media plays a significant role in fostering what’s known as herd mentality among investors. This phenomenon is driven by the way the media presents information, which can lead to both exuberant booms and devastating busts in the financial markets.

When the media extensively covers positive news and market exuberance, it has the power to trigger a collective fear of missing out (FOMO) among investors. This fear, in turn, prompts investors to rush headlong into the market, eager to participate in the perceived opportunity. The result is a self-reinforcing cycle of enthusiasm that fuels a market boom. Prices surge as investors clamour to buy, and the media’s coverage intensifies the momentum.

On the flip side, negative information, often sensationalized by the media, can lead to panic selling as investors follow the crowd during a market downturn. The fear and uncertainty created by the media’s dire portrayals of economic indicators or other factors can send shockwaves through the market. As investors frantically sell off their holdings, prices plummet. In this case, the media’s coverage exacerbates the downward spiral, amplifying the extent of the bust.

The media’s role in amplifying these market movements is critical. It intensifies volatility, making the swings between boom and bust more extreme. The amplification effect can sometimes turn a healthy market correction into a full-blown crash or a modest bull run into a speculative bubble.

For the small investor, herd mentality poses a significant risk. They often lack the resources and experience to successfully navigate these volatile market conditions. They might be swept up by the herd mentality, making decisions based on emotion rather than rationally analysing the situation. This can lead to substantial financial losses.

In this context, advocating for the small investor means emphasizing the importance of independent thinking and rational decision-making. It requires recognizing the role of the media in amplifying market movements and being aware of the psychological biases that can drive herd behaviour. The small investor must resist the urge to follow the crowd blindly and instead rely on thorough research and analysis to make informed decisions.

In conclusion, the media’s influence on herd mentality and its amplification of market movements can have profound implications for investors, particularly small investors. By understanding these dynamics and actively seeking to break free from the herd, small investor can better protect their financial interests and avoid falling victim to the boom and bust cycles perpetuated by media-driven exuberance and panic.


Speculation and the Media’s Role in Market Manipulation

In the ever-evolving world of finance, the media’s influence reaches far beyond mere information dissemination. It can significantly contribute to speculation and even market manipulation, perpetuating a cycle of distorted market dynamics and heightened volatility.

Sensationalized headlines, rumours, and unverified information are potent tools in the media’s arsenal. When these elements are utilized, they can ignite speculation and encourage short-term trading strategies among market participants. Sensationalism tends to grab attention and stoke curiosity, compelling investors to act swiftly on perceived opportunities or threats.

This rapid-response behaviour can lead to a surge in speculation, where investors buy or sell assets based not on fundamental analysis but on fleeting information from the media. As a result, markets may witness exaggerated price movements driven more by sentiment and speculation than by well-founded investment strategies. This speculative trading can further intensify market volatility, creating an environment where asset prices become increasingly disconnected from their intrinsic value.

The media’s role doesn’t end with the initiation of speculation. It can also provide fertile ground for market manipulation. Opportunistic market participants, be they individuals or institutions, may exploit the narratives crafted by the media for personal gain. They can spread rumours, engage in pump-and-dump schemes, or use false information to drive prices in a particular direction.

This manipulation can create a distorted market environment where price discovery and fair play take a back seat to opportunistic tactics. It ultimately harms the integrity of the financial markets, as individual investors become pawns in a larger game orchestrated by those with more significant resources and expertise.

For the small investor, this environment poses a formidable challenge. They are often at a disadvantage when competing with sophisticated market players. They may fall victim to false information or manipulation, resulting in significant financial losses.

Advocating for the small investor in this context means demanding transparency and regulatory oversight to combat market manipulation. It also entails encouraging critical thinking and due diligence when consuming financial news. Small investors should be cautious and discerning, avoiding rash decisions based on sensationalized reports and unverified information.


Feedback Loop: Media and Market Participants

Indeed, the media’s influence on financial markets is not a one-way street; it operates within a dynamic feedback loop with market participants. This intricate interaction between the media and investors is pivotal in shaping market dynamics.

The media serves as both a source of information and a platform for expressing opinions and sentiments. It disseminates news, analyses, and narratives that can spark optimism, fear, speculation, or caution. These messages can elicit various responses from market participants, influencing their decision-making processes.

Market participants, on the other hand, react to media coverage in diverse ways. When bombarded with positive news or a bullish market narrative, investors might be driven by FOMO (fear of missing out) and rush to participate in the perceived opportunities. This can lead to increased trading activity, rising asset prices, and heightened market exuberance.

Conversely, when the media presents negative information or fosters a bearish outlook, it can trigger panic selling as investors follow the crowd in a rush to exit the market. This cascade of selling can result in falling prices, increasing pessimism, and heightened market volatility.

In this feedback loop, the media’s role is to inform and shape perceptions, emotions, and behaviours. Its power lies in its ability to impact market sentiment and market movements. Large and small investors respond to the media’s cues, which, in turn, can influence the direction of asset prices and market trends.

For small investors, understanding this feedback loop is essential for making informed decisions. Recognizing that the media is not just a neutral source of information but an active participant in market dynamics can help small investors approach financial news with a critical eye. It underscores the importance of conducting thorough research, maintaining a long-term perspective, and avoiding impulsive reactions to short-term media-driven narratives.


The Illusion of Freedom in Boom and Bust Cycles

In a world where freedom hinges on your capabilities, from the average Joe to the highest office in the land, pause and ponder. Brace yourself, for we’re about to unravel this cryptic riddle. If you missed the memo, we’re dropping a clue, and it’s a game-changer: “fiat money.”

At Tactical Investor, we’re the trailblazers, charting the course through reality and unveiling the newest trends. Everything else? Mere chatter, mere gossip. It’s easy to get swept up in the whirlwind of words, but let’s be honest – it’s a futile exercise. The real game is in making the most of the hand you’ve been dealt.

The financial markets? Oh, they follow suit, marching to the beat of Fiat’s drum. So, all that talk about doomsday scenarios? It’s nothing but empty noise. Those so-called sages of old? Well, they’ve met their maker and faded into obscurity. Our mantra is clear: focus on the trend, for that’s the only lifeline. It’s not just about your wealth; it’s about your well-being.

 From a “super trend perspective,” every back-breaking correction (emphasis on back-breaking) should be viewed as a long-term buying opportunity.


From this juncture, let’s delve into the annals of history. We’re about to embark on a journey through time, where the past unfolds like a tapestry of decisions made in the heat of the moment. This historical lens not only offers us a real-time account of what transpired but also serves as a stark reminder that those who glean wisdom from the past are less likely to stumble into the same pitfalls. The mistakes of yesteryears need not become the folly of tomorrow.


The Madness of a Polarized Press: How Extreme Views Drive Media Bias

The press has always gone out of its way to twist the news and sell the masses rubbish, especially in the financial markets. However, the veil fell completely after Trump won the presidency. The utter garbage they focus on illustrates that IQ is no longer a prerequisite.

We would not be surprised to find out if most of those individuals who pass for reporters have an IQ that is slightly above 70. An IQ of 70 equates to that of a retard. However, on the flip side, imagine how difficult it would be if everyone were a genius, so be grateful for these penguins, as their reality is based on what they read. They make trading the markets infinitely easier as their behaviour is predictable.

Sit down and watch the show for things about to get more interesting and nuttier at the same time.  We suspect a lot more heads will roll and the cries of rage and frustration will soar to heights never seen before.  Market Update May 19, 2017


All massive corrections should be considered buying opportunities, provided the underlying trend is up (bullish). The stronger the deviation from the norm, the better the opportunity. This chart illustrates that from a long-term perspective, every so-called stock market crash proved to be nothing but a buying opportunity.

The Fed, via fiat money, indirectly controls the media; the press controls the masses through the garbage they print and pass off as news.  You could not ask for a better setup of mind control; the masses think they are free, but they are not; they are free to make decisions in areas that do not matter. Look around slowly and determine for yourself if they are free.

The Feds’ Inaction: A Recipe for Currency Debasement?

The Federal Reserve, as the United States central bank, is responsible for maintaining stability in the financial system. However, its inaction regarding questionable activities carried out by banks has raised concerns about the Fed’s ability to fulfil its mandate effectively.

One of the consequences of the Fed’s inaction is currency debasement. By turning a blind eye to borderline illegal activities, the Fed indirectly contributes to the currency’s devaluation.

The primary reason for this inaction is the Fed’s focus on maintaining economic growth and stability. The Fed is willing to tolerate questionable activities to avoid potential disruptions to the financial system arising from intervening.

Factors that Influence the Fed’s Inaction

Moreover, the Fed’s regulatory powers have been weakened over time, making it difficult for them to act decisively against banks. This is due to political pressure, deregulation, and the growing complexity of the financial system.

Another factor is the potential backlash from powerful financial institutions and political figures. When banks are influential or “too big to fail,” the Fed may hesitate to take action against them.

Questionable Bank Activities and the Fed’s Blind Eye

Lastly, the Fed may choose inaction to preserve its own reputation and credibility. By not intervening, the Fed avoids admitting that banks under its supervision are involved in illegal activities, which could damage the public’s trust in the Federal Reserve itself.

The Federal Reserve’s inaction regarding questionable bank activities is a recipe for currency debasement. This inaction is due to a combination of factors, including the prioritization of economic growth, weakened regulatory powers, potential backlash, and the preservation of the Fed’s reputation.


FAQs – The Boom and Bust Cycle 

1. What is the impact of the Trump presidency on the media?

The Trump presidency has led to extreme views and media bias, with the press twisting the news to sell rubbish to the masses. However, this also makes trading the markets easier as their behaviour is predictable.

2. What is the buying opportunity during a massive correction?

All massive corrections should be considered buying opportunities, provided the underlying trend is up (bullish). The stronger the deviation from the norm, the better the opportunity.

3. What is the Federal Reserve’s role in maintaining stability in the financial system?

The Federal Reserve is responsible for maintaining stability in the financial system. However, its inaction regarding questionable activities carried out by banks has raised concerns about the Fed’s ability to fulfil its mandate effectively.

4. What is the consequence of the Fed’s inaction?

One of the consequences of the Fed’s inaction is currency debasement. By turning a blind eye to borderline illegal activities, the Fed indirectly contributes to the currency’s devaluation.

5. What are the factors that influence the Fed’s inaction?

The Fed’s inaction is influenced by several factors, including its focus on maintaining economic growth and stability, weakened regulatory powers, potential backlash from powerful financial institutions and political figures, and the preservation of the Fed’s reputation.

6. What is the impact of the Fed’s inaction on the financial system?

The Fed’s inaction regarding questionable bank activities is a recipe for currency debasement. This inaction is due to a combination of factors, including the prioritization of economic growth, weakened regulatory powers, potential backlash, and the preservation of the Fed’s reputation.


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