AMD vs Intel: Who Will Dominate the Landscape going forward

AMD vs Intel; Can AMD maintain its advantage?

Updated March 2023

“INTC has lost the leadership in process technology, its key differentiation, and it is losing momentum,” he wrote in a research report published Tuesday. “We continue to be more pessimistic about INTC gross margins as its competitive position is eroding and yields for 10nm are likely to depress gross margin in 2H:19.” https://bit.ly/2H7DX7d

INTC is still running into an issue with 10nm wafer technology, so how will it deal with TSM and AMD, which are gearing up to sell 7nm chips? Intel states it will be ready to sell 10nm chips in 2020, while AMD is gearing up to sell 7nm chips in bulk next year. In the short term, the picture does not appear to be positive for Intel.

Andy Grove was right when he stated, “Only the Paranoid Survive” It appears those at the helm of Intel have allowed a culture of arrogance to mushroom. To the early bird comes the worm; to the late bird the bullet.

Google, the behemoth, joins the AMD vs Intel Foray

The relationship between Google and AMD could strengthen further. Google has already chosen to supply GPUs for its stadia gaming service. Intel was supposed to provide the chips, but a further chip delay could push Google to build upon this relationship with AMD. Many analysts also feel that Google could embrace the EPC 2 “Rome” processors based on the Zen 2 microarchitecture. Google has millions of servers, so this could lead to a nice profit boost for AMD. Focus on the word “could” and do not change it for the word “will”; this is the trick analysts employ to con the masses into accepting a false narrative.

What sets these chips apart from Intel’s chips? They incorporate 7nm technology, and each chip can have up to eight smaller 7nm chips inside them, allowing a single EPYC 2 processor to have 64 cores, and they will be able to execute 128 threads. The entire data-centre processing industry is paying close attention to these chips, and if a big player like Google embraces them, the odds are relatively high that many other players will follow suit. No one wants to be left behind, especially with AI-based technology gaining traction rapidly.

Tom’s Hardware on AMD’s New Chips

Although AMD has not released official details on the number of PCIe lanes that two EPYC Rome processors could deliver in a dual-socket server, ServeTheHome.com, a high-performance computing publication, suggests that the configuration could support up to 162 PCIe 4.0 lanes.

This would exceed Intel’s dual-socket Cascade Lake Xeon servers by 82 lanes and even surpass Intel’s most recent Platinum 9200-series processors, which provide 80 PCIe lanes per dual-socket server. According to Patrick Kennedy, a writer at ServeTheHome, two Rome CPUs could potentially support 160 PCIe 4.0 lanes, with the possibility of an additional PCIe lane per CPU (129 in a single socket) for a total of 162 in a dual-socket server. However, it is important to note that this additional lane per socket could only be used for the baseboard management controller (BMC), an essential component of server motherboards.

These findings are significant because PCIe lanes are crucial in data transfer rates and overall system performance. With more PCIe lanes, a system can support more components, such as graphics cards, NVMe SSDs, and network adapters, resulting in faster data transfer and reduced latency. This advantage positions AMD to dominate the server market as data centres continue to require more high-performance computing capabilities. Intel has even more serious competition than AMD has let on.

Amazon has already started to use the EPYC chips in its AWS service, which it is marketing as Amazon EC2 Instances.

Projections are now being made that AMD could capture 10% of the server market share by 2020, this, in our opinion, could be a conservative estimate; when the rats start to abandon ship, they usually stampede instead of slowly crawling out.

TSM cementing its lead over Intel

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has announced that its 5nm process is now in risk production mode, offering customers a new performance and power optimisation level. TSMC claims that the new process generation promises 1.8 times the logic density, a 15% speed gain on an Arm Cortex-A72 core, and improved SRAM and analogue area reduction compared to its 7nm process.

This will be TSMC’s second process generation to use extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, simplifying the manufacturing process and offering excellent yield learning. According to TSMC, the 5nm process will achieve maturity faster than previous TSMC process nodes at the same development stage due to the EUV lithography.

TSMC is a leading manufacturer of semiconductors and serves clients like Apple, Qualcomm, and Huawei. The announcement of the 5nm process indicates TSMC’s continued focus on advanced manufacturing technology and highlights its technological superiority over competitors like Intel and Samsung.

The new 5nm process will allow TSMC to meet the increasing demand for high-performance computing applications, including AI, 5G, and high-performance computing, by providing improved performance and energy efficiency. The availability of the new 5nm process design infrastructure for customers to download also highlights TSMC’s emphasis on collaboration with its clients and its commitment to developing cutting-edge technology for the semiconductor industry. TSMC Online.

TSMC 1nm Goals?

TSMC’s 3-nm chips will enter mass production in Q4 2022, with an upgraded version (N3E) starting commercial production in H2 2023. The company’s 2-nm chips are expected to be available by 2025. TSMC is currently in the pathfinding stage for manufacturing technologies beyond the 3-nm node. Still, the company is already working on 1-nm technology, with a new factory expected to be prepared by mid-2026, first trials to start in 2027 and mass production release expected in 2028.

However, the company has not confirmed TSMC’s 1-nm fab plans, but a government Vice President has. The VP noted that TSMC chose Longtan for its expansive science park, proximity to the Hsinchu HQ and R&D centre, and location in Taoyuan county, which is convenient for the international airport. TSMC strives to find a contact material with very low resistance that can transfer high currents and be used for volume production. In May 2022, TSMC announced it had developed key features of the 1-nm process node in collaboration with MIT and NTU. Still, it clarified that these findings might not necessarily be used in commercial chip production soon.

As transistors become smaller, make them harder. Intel, for example, will not go directly from 4-nm to 2 nm. It will move from 4-nm to 3 nm to 2 nm and then embrace a new naming scheme where the process tech will use angstrom. Simply put, 10a or 10 angstrom means 1nm. Therefore, Intel will not jump from 2 nm to 1 nm. It will go from 2-nm (20a) to 18a and forward, and a similar situation is expected from TSMC.

Even minnows are now attempting to take on INTC:

Rene James, the former number two at Intel, currently heads a start-up called Ampere that is going after Intel’s dominant Server chip business. Her exact words, “It’s a once-in-a-50-year situation,” but here’s the rub, it is using TSM to build those chips, and it has already produced data centre chips that Lenovo and a few other server-based companies have selected. This is probably the very start of a new megatrend; time will tell how fast this trend gathers traction.

While Amazon is using AMD’s chips, it is also designing its chip called the Graviton, and it would never have managed this without TSM capabilities. AMZN is the largest cloud company in the world, so that’s another thorn for Intel; a price war is brewing which will further erode Intel’s margins as it struggles to hold onto market share. Therefore it is possible that INTC could lose up to 20% of its current market share to its competitors and possibly more if the masses think nothing is being done to address its shortfalls. There is still time for Intel to remedy the situation (taking a long-term view), but it needs to start acting decisively soon.

Conclusion

Can we state with certainty that AMD and TSM have won the battle?

If you start with the wrong premise, no matter how hard you try, the answer will be wrong. AMD does not have its Fabs, which means it’s at the mercy of TSM. TSM could start to charge AMD whatever it wants (in theory), and this would affect AMD’s bottom line. In the end, the relationship between AMD and TSM is one in which TSM holds all the crucial cards for now; designing great chips means nothing if you do not control the means of production.

The real story is the battle between TSM and Intel, and in that arena, TSM is leading for now, and if the US government does not start to support essential players as is the case in China, then this could mark a turning point. While TSM is a Taiwanese company, China has its hands in that pie too, and you will see why as the article below addresses this issue.

TSM vs INTC Appears To Be The Real Issue

If TSM remains the dominant player, then sooner or later, this technology will make its way to China. China’s government supports key industries, semiconductors, 5G, etc., and this is what is enabling them to advance at such a rapid pace. Unless The US starts to take a similar stance, it is just a matter of time before China wins the 5g wars (which it appears to have won already as Huawei so far has the best 5g hardware on the market) and the semiconductor wars. China is already poaching talent from TSM and other Taiwanese chip-based companies at a rapid clip.

Throughout this article, we used the word could, and might several times; we could have easily opted for the word “will” or something more forceful, but injecting emotions into the game plan is a surefire way to guarantee a loss. Every situation should be treated the same way; examine the data in a cool, calm and rational manner.

The crowd follows those it believes to be the leader; if the perception of leadership is challenged, the leader’s image suffers irreparable damage over the short to intermediate time frames. The former leader has to move fast to contain the damage; if not, the damage is usually permanent.

AMD Vs Intel. March 2023 Update

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) has been rising in the tech world and is now giving it’s rival Intel a run for its money. With the launch of AMD’s Ryzen processors, they have offered better performance and value for money, making them more attractive to consumers. Additionally, AMD’s partnership with TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) has given them a technological edge, allowing them to produce chips with smaller transistors and better efficiency.

Regarding market share, AMD has been steadily gaining ground on Intel. According to market research firm Mercury Research, AMD’s desktop PC processor market share increased from 19.2% in Q4 2019 to 20.2% in Q1 2020. Meanwhile, Intel’s share decreased from 80.8% to 79.8% over the same period.

Furthermore, AMD’s dominance in the gaming industry contributes to its success. With its powerful Ryzen processors and Radeon graphics cards, AMD has become the preferred choice for gamers who demand high-performance machines.

Several articles also suggest that AMD’s future looks bright and is expected to continue its upward trajectory. For example, a report from Forbes predicts that AMD’s growth will surpass Intel’s due to its technological advantages and innovation ability. Another article from The Motley Fool highlights AMD’s potential to capture more market share in the server market, which Intel dominates.

In conclusion, AMD’s technological advancements, competitive pricing, and growing market share make it a strong contender to dominate Intel in the long run.