Bull Market Records Mean Nothing If You Miss the Present
July 17, 2025
Bull Runs Don’t Die of Old Age, But They Do Get Sloppy
People often assume the market operates on mathematical principles. In truth, it runs on confidence, habit, and mood—until one day, it doesn’t. The 2009–2020 bull market wasn’t just long—it was psychological glue. A whole generation forgot what pain felt like. Every dip was a buy. Every fear was a false alarm. Until 2020, when a virus reminded traders what fragility looks like.
Bull markets don’t die of old age. They die when the crowd gets lazy, when risk is forgotten, and when the party gets too loud for anyone to hear the warning bells. The longer the run, the more dangerous the delusion. The market’s greatest trick is making you believe that the rules have changed, right before it snaps them back with a vengeance.
Historical Anchors – This Wasn’t the First, and Won’t Be the Last
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it certainly does rhyme. The 2009–2020 bull wasn’t the first marathon, and it won’t be the last. Look back:
- The 1921–1929 bull run fueled the Jazz Age and ended in catastrophe. The Roaring Twenties were all champagne and ticker tape, until the music stopped and the Great Depression began. The market soared on speculation, then crashed 86% in a matter of months. The lesson? Euphoria is always expensive.
- The post-World War II expansion (1949–1966) made middle-class investing mainstream. The American Dream was built on rising stocks, new suburbs, and the belief that prosperity was permanent. But by the late 1960s, inflation and war cracked the façade, and the market paid the price.
- The 1982–2000 period was an era of Reaganomics, globalisation, and the emergence of technology. It was the age of the mutual fund, the 401(k), and the retail investor. The S&P 500 gained nearly 1,400% over 18 years. But it ended with the dot-com bust, when belief in “new paradigms” turned to dust.
Each bull had different catalysts—policy, innovation, demographics—but they all ended the same way: excessive belief, followed by a brutal correction. The crowd always thinks, “This time is different.” It never is.
The Psychology of Longevity – Complacency in a Bull’s Shadow
The longer a bull market runs, the more it feels inevitable. And that’s the danger. People stop asking, “Why is this going up?” and start saying, “It always goes up.” Wealth turns into identity. Risk management vanishes. Fundamentals become inconvenient.
Complacency is the silent killer. When you don’t feel pain, you forget how to brace. The market becomes a comfort blanket, and every dip is just another buying opportunity. The crowd stops thinking and starts assuming. That’s when the cracks form—quietly, invisibly, until they’re too big to ignore.
The 2009–2020 bull market bred a generation of investors who had never experienced a real bear market. They learned to disregard caution, dismiss risk, and treat volatility as a joke. But markets are mean-reverting machines. The longer the calm, the sharper the storm.
Modern Fuel – Cheap Money, Tech Hype, and Passive Flows
This wasn’t just a bull—it was a policy-driven rocket. Quantitative easing (QE), zero interest rates (ZIRP), and central bank backstops created a market that didn’t reward scepticism. Tech disruption and passive index flows poured gasoline on the fire. Cash was trash. Valuations didn’t matter. The Fed was your friend.
Passive investing became the new orthodoxy. Money flowed into index funds, driving up the prices of the same mega-cap names. The market became top-heavy, fragile, and increasingly disconnected from the real economy. Sceptics were steamrolled. The only sin was sitting in cash.
But the longer this setup lasted, the more it incentivised reckless positioning. When liquidity dried up, the illusion cracked. The COVID crash wasn’t just about a virus—it was about the sudden realisation that the market’s safety net was an illusion. When the music stopped, there were no chairs left.
Tactical Lessons – What to Do After the Longest Party Ever
Don’t chase history. Learn from it, after every monster bull, volatility spikes, sentiment splinters, and sector leadership changes. Smart money rotates early. Retail holds too long.
If you studied the last few cycles, you’d know: the real gains come not during the run, but after the wreck, when the crowd is silent and opportunity whispers. The best trades are made in the ashes, not the confetti.
- Volatility is opportunity. When the crowd panics, the wise prepare.
- Leadership always changes. What worked last cycle won’t work next time.
- Sentiment is a lagging indicator. When everyone’s bullish, the top is near. When everyone’s scared, the bottom is close.
The market rewards those who adapt, not those who cling to the past. The longest bull market built fortunes—and illusions. The trap? Believing the past guarantees the future.
Ray Dalio warned of long-term debt cycles where easy money stretches booms unnaturally, and makes the crash more violent. The longer the party, the bigger the hangover.
Howard Marks notes: “No market, no strategy, no asset class will outperform forever.” Complacency kills. The crowd always thinks the good times will last. They never do.
Jesse Livermore saw the end coming not in numbers, but in human behaviour: “Markets are never wrong—opinions often are.” The market doesn’t care about your beliefs. It cares about positioning, mood, and the willingness to adapt.
Conclusion – Study the Past, Trade the Now
The longest bull market built fortunes—and illusions. The trap? Believing the past guarantees the future. You study history to stay alive. You trade now to stay ahead.
Suppose everyone’s still quoting 2009–2020 like scripture—good. That means they’re stuck in the rearview. You? Eyes forward. The next bull will look nothing like the last. The catalysts will change. The winners will change. The risks will change.
Bull markets don’t die of old age. They die when the crowd stops thinking, when risk is ignored, when the party gets sloppy. The only way to survive is to stay humble, stay curious, and never mistake comfort for safety.
The market is a living thing. It rewards those who adapt, punishes those who sleepwalk. Study the past, but live in the present. Because the only thing longer than the last bull market is the list of traders who thought it would never end.
Shifting Perspectives, Changing Realities
