Decoding Market Trends: A Journey Through Tactical Investor Stock Market Updates (2013-2016)
Updated Sept 27, 2023
Introduction:
Venture into market psychology with Tactical Investor’s archives, unravelling trends and decoding signals from 2013 to 2016. Delve into market narratives, deciphering emotions, and exploring the unconventional wisdom that guided investment strategies during this dynamic period.
From navigating the unexpected resilience of the most hated bull market to deciphering the impact of global events on currencies and indices, each update provides a unique lens into the complex interplay of emotions and market forces. As Tactical Investor explores the intricacies of investor sentiment, projections, and long-term investment opportunities, witness the evolution of strategies in response to an ever-changing financial landscape.
Embark on this journey through the Tactical Investor Stock Market Updates Archive, gaining insights into the art of investing in polarized markets, adapting to new paradigms, and recognizing the potential hidden behind apparent chaos. Explore the intersection of psychology, trend analysis, and real-world events that shaped the market narrative during this crucial period.
Market Insights Archive: Tactical Investor’s Updates
Emotions drive everything, and psychology is the study of emotions; mass psychology is the study of mass emotions or the mass mindset. If we had to summarise everything into just one word, we would use “polarised”. The world is going to be extremely polarised, and weather patterns are going to be extremely erratic. Market Update Jan 19, 2017
Our prevailing theme towards the dollar was that all sharp pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities, and that outlook continues to hold—market Update July 2, 2016.
There is a theme that states one should sell in May and go away. As we are in a new paradigm, that theme might change to sell in May and be carried away. As the markets are extremely overbought, the more probable scenario calls for a pullback in April and then a strong summer rally, which could take hold as early as May. Market Update April 2, 2016
Throughout all this wailing and gnashing of teeth, we have stuck through with the same theme; the larger the pullback, the better the buying opportunity as long as the trend is up and that plan has paid off. Interim Update March 14, 2016
The trend has still not turned positive, and it looks like a test of the lows is still in the works. The SSEC could probably rally to the 2950-3000 ranges before pulling back again. On a positive note, the trend is dangerously close to moving into the neutral range; this would be a positive development. Market Update Feb 17, 2016
The SSEC rallied to the 2900 ranges (2928 to be precise) before pulling back.
Tactical Investor Stock Market Update Archive 2015
Markets usually drop off a slippery cliff of Joy, after the crowd is singing “Kumbaya My love” on the top of their lungs. In this instance, the majority are still yelling “death to the markets” or at least thinking this, and so the markets will head higher. Those ruled by fear must be punished as fear is not real and based on illusory perceptions at best. Market Update June 30, 2015
The markets have continued to soar higher and higher, much to the surprise of both the bears and the bulls. As we stated in the last update, nothing makes sense when examined from a logical point of view. However, as far as this market is concerned, logic and reality are two traits that will only hamper you and lead to losses. As the NASDAQ just recently broke a 15-year barrier, it appears to us that the NASDAQ should at least soar another 2000 points if not more. Remember a spring that has been held back for so long (and 15 year is a long time), uncoils with twice the force that held it back. Market Update May 17, 2015
What we need to focus on is that the underlying theme is “inflate or die”; this means that the currency race to the bottom is on maximum overdrive. In such an environment where the only weapon central bankers have is to flood even more money into an already overextended financial system, every healthy pullback has to be viewed as a buying opportunity. Moreover, an extremely strong pullback has to be viewed as a screaming buy. Market Update March 31, 2015
The monthly trend is issuing a conflicting signal, but our focus is not the monthly trend but the weekly trend. If the monthly trend does not change, it simply means that the weekly trend is going to turn bearish over the next few months, but until it turns bearish, we will remain bullish. Market Update Feb 18, 2015
The trend is mixed; some penguins are screaming the market will crash, and others are saying it will fly. We are stating that the trend is unclear, but as it has not turned negative, the outlook favours a move higher, and the old highs could possibly be tested. This will hold until the weekly trend turns negative; the moment it does, we will send out an interim update. Market Update Jan 31, 2015
Tactical Investor Stock Market Update Archive 2014
The trend is still strong, and the dollar will continue to rally higher until the trend turns negative; the pullback to the 81.80-82.00 ranges might or might not occur given the strength of the current move. We would not focus on the level of the pullback now; the only thing to remember is that every strong pullback is a buying opportunity until the trend turns negative. The opposite holds for all major currencies. Market Update Sept 13, 2014
FXI Outlook
If you look at FXI, it has had a nice run since Oct 2013 (the first time we recommended this play to individuals who were willing to invest for the long haul). It traded as high as 42 before pulling back. The 40-42 range is a zone of pretty strong resistance so this pullback is to be expected. The next leg up should propel it past this point and once former resistance becomes support, one can expect the Chinese markets to really take off. When FXI closes above 42 on a monthly basis, it should easily be in a position to test the 50-54 ranges before running into any resistance. We fully expect FXI to eventually trade to new all-time highs and once the current all-time is taken out, the path for a move to the 140 plus ranges will be in place. There are many blue-chip stocks selling at a discount so long-term players can continue opening up positions in these companies. Another very good long-term play is the Russian market. Believe it or not many will look back in shock at their inability to recognize this lovely long-term opportunity. Market Update Sept 13, 2014
Tactical Investor Stock Market Update Projections For The Dollar In 2014
No one is really expecting the dollar to rally strongly, and it is usually under such circumstances that the opposite of what the experts expect comes to pass; in this instance, that would mean the dollar rallying strongly while many of the major currencies pull back. This goes against all logic because the USA is printing new money like a turbocharged crack addict, but logic never made anyone much money in the markets; the markets are illogical and even more so now, given the massive level of manipulation (fraud) that is taking place. Market Update July 28, 2014
In the long term, the Chinese markets remain an excellent investment. The Shanghai Index pulled back in almost perfect correlation with the BDI Index (Baltic dry index), and as the BDI has stabilized now and is ticking upwards, the time for long-term entry points is at hand. Those who are patient should look into opening positions in top Chinese companies that have taken a beating, especially those traded on the NYSE or NASDAQ exchange. Market Update July 28, 2014
Negativity equates to Positivity when it comes to the Markets
Once again, we have many negative factors that could derail this bull market, but once again, we have to be prudent and understand that the trend is what counts. Roughly 2 years ago, we had a system issue a signal that never failed for almost 125 years, but guess what it failed for the first time since its inception. It was not because the signal was flawed or the system had failed; it failed only because the playing field had changed. The playing field right now is as unbalanced as they come; the room for free market forces to run is so small they might as well not exist. For all intents and purposes, the markets are completely controlled now. In such an environment, a new system has to be used, one that considers the current factors and one that effectively focuses on price action (plus a few key psychological factors. The trend indicator/system does this, which is why we will wait for it to turn bearish before we exit all our long positions and look for a few short positions. Market Update June 30th, 2014
Once again, we are in the same position; the outlook has deteriorated even more, but the trend has still not turned negative and although from a logical point of view, it would make sense to short the market, we must resist this call for now, as the outlook still calls for another move past (SPX) 1900. Market Update May 22, 2014
The Dollar
The dollar is giving pretty strong signals on the longer-term charts that a bottom is close at hand, while only the Euro appears to have put in a top; the other currencies should be topping out over the next few weeks. Market Update May 22, 2014
The trend is still strong and, as of yet, shows no signs of weakening, though many technical indicators are starting to flash warning signals. As the trend has not turned negative yet (do not confuse this trend with the one you obtain via plotting trend lines; the trend we speak of is completely different from the one you obtain by drawing simple trend lines), bonds appear poised to test the 137.50 ranges and potentially trade as high as 140.00. Market Update May 22, 2014
Since the development and full implementation of our trend indicator, despite many so-called signals that the market was weakening or was ripe for a correction, we have viewed every pullback as a buying opportunity. The overall projection for the SPX to trade to and beyond 1920 is still valid, with a possible overshoot to 1950. It does not mean we will short the markets just because these targets have been hit. On the contrary, we will only be short once our trend indicator confirms a trend change. Market Update April 28, 2014
Tactical Investor Stock Market Update Views For The Dow Jones
The Dow is still on course to blast upwards to a series of new highs. The strategy now used by the central bankers and top market manipulators are becoming more psychological in nature. The focus is on altering perception. Once the perception is altered it does not matter what the reality is for a new alternate reality has been created. This alternate reality will replace reality and remain valid until the masses manage to break free from its hold.
For months now, the Fed has been giving hints that it would taper off its $85 billion a month program, but when the markets reacted badly, it always backed off. However, this time the markets are holding up fairly well; it appears that they have priced in the fact that the Fed will start looking for a way to cut back on this program. In this sense, the markets are holding up rather well and one would have to say that they are now actually climbing up a wall of worry. Market Update Jan 22, 2014
The new reality is that the mom-and-pop investor has just jumped into the market, and they have been sitting on the sidelines for a very long time. They have also been finally brainwashed into accepting the alternate reality that all is well. On that basis, we can expect the markets to rally much higher before they finally run into a brick wall. Market Update Jan 22, 2014
Tactical Investor Stock Market Update Archive 2013
Based on the trend and our psychological analysis of the situation, we think that the Dow could soar to unimaginable heights before the markets crack and even when they crack they will not break the long-term uptrend. The Feds pulled a Houdini with their unrelenting quantitative easing program, and almost no one seems to have noticed this, or if they have almost no one is talking about it.
The Dow and SPX put new highs and based on momentum and old technical analysis theory which most seem to have forgotten; a true bull market begins only when the old highs have been taken out. The long-term trend remains strong so for now, there is very little evidence of long-term weakness. A correction of up to 20% is possible. We will probably have two corrections one in the 10% ranges and one in the 20% ranges both should be viewed as buying opportunities. Market Update Jan 22, 2014
The perception is changing; the masses are now becoming optimistic; thus, unless the trend changes, we can expect the markets to rally even higher. Another thing to understand is that even though the rally in the markets has been artificially induced, the markets have recently issued “a true bullish signal.” What is this signal, you ask? Well, both the Dow and SPX are trading at new highs. A true bull market is not in session until the old highs have been taken out. 9 out of 10 times when this occurs, the market rallies significantly from the breakout point; the breakout point, in this case, is roughly 14200 (the old 2008 high). Market Update Dec 12, 2013
Past Tactical Investor Stock Market Update Archives
Tactical Investor Past calls 2012-2013
Tactical Investor Past calls from 2009-2011
Tactical Investor Past calls from 2006-2008
Tactical Investor Past calls from 2005-2006
