Stock Market Fear Index: The Crowd is still nervous

If fear starts to seep in, remember this. We have a very aggressive Fed, and their only purpose now is to stabilise the market at any cost. Why would they do this? AI is going to continue wiping out jobs at a mind-numbing rate; the current action is a prelude to the massacre that lies in store in the near future. Hence, the only way to convince the masses that all is well is to prop the markets up. When the market is trending up, it offers the crowd a ray of hope that everything will eventually work out for the better. As they say, hope springs eternal even though it’s rate of return is pathetic. A man that has hope can be re-directed to embrace false narratives with ease, for hope is nothing but an illusion. Hope only delays the inevitable, but while he clings to this hope, the elite players can keep juicing the system. When it comes to the markets, one has to do or be done in. In simple terms; adapt or die.

Uncertainty and fear pay poorly; only the man/woman that is willing to visualise opportunity where others can only envision disaster is the one that will make out like a bandit in the long run. This bull is a hybrid; it will not behave like a typical bull market, at times it might appear to act like a bear, at times like a dolphin and at times like a raging insane bull. However, if one plots a trend line through all these crazy gyrations, one will see that the markets are trending up. Market Update Oct 31, 2020

Don’t forget the above paragraph, for this bull is going to make all the experts of yesteryear look like fools before it finally hits a brick wall. The only experts that will survive are the ones that don’t use the label of expert, for these individuals are willing to adapt. Any expert that injects emotion into his or her analysis is like the emperor without clothing. Eventually, the emotions will catch up, and he/she will make a big boo-boo. We have never seen a bull market like this before; everything is Topsy Turvy. What used to work does not, what works now will soon fail, and yet the experts appear oblivious to the changes that are taking place right in front of them. Once the Dow trends past 33K, (remember this number) all hell will break loose in regards to fundamental and technical analysis. Those relying only on these two metrics for guidance will be blown out of the water. At some point it’s going to be nothing but MP at play, so start to view fear as a useless emotion. Once the Dow breaks 33K, one should treat 3900 to 4500 point moves in the same light as one would have treated 1500 to 2200-point moves. If the Dow breaks past 39K, there is going to be at least one 33% to 42% correction that will be viewed as the end of the world type event, but it will prove to be the last great buying opportunity before this bull surges even higher. For now, all eyes should be on how the Dow reacts when it trades past 30k and 33k. If the Nasdaq trades to the 14,700 to 15,000 ranges before the Dow gets to 33K, then one the odds of the Nasdaq trading on par with the Dow one day will rise to 60%. It will also indicate that the Dow will take out 36K sooner than later.

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