Italy's black economy-including Mafia-worth 13 percent of GDP

Editor: Vladimir Bajic | Tactical Investor

Italy’s Black Economy

Updated Oct 2022

Fascinating Insights: Exploring Technical Analysis

Here’s an engaging article on technical analysis that we think you’ll find intriguing before we dive into our main topic.

When examining the monthly Dow chart through DIA, it becomes clear that from late 2009 until at least the middle of 2015, individuals employing technical analysis (TA) would have opted to stay out of the markets, patiently awaiting a substantial downturn.

Even in 2015, many TA experts might have hesitated to engage, considering the pullback relatively minor. In stark contrast, our approach embraced every market dip, including the COVID crash, driven by factors such as Mass Psychology (MP), sentiment indicators, trend analyses, and more. It’s worth noting that we’ve recently observed unusual sentiment patterns, prompting a cautious stance. Despite moments when TA appears exceptionally effective on its own, we remain steadfast in our belief that MP holds sway over the long term.

As previously mentioned, significant players can manipulate short-term trends but lack the influence to alter long-term trajectories. Consequently, markets, sentiments, or controlled variables will inevitably revert to the mean in the long run.

While we’ve focused on a particular time frame, it’s important to recognize that there were other periods, spanning the 70s, 80s, 90s, and beyond, where sole reliance on technical analysis (TA) or fundamentals would have yielded subpar results. The annual SP500 chart below offers further evidence of such unpredictable market behavior.

Interesting Read: Exploring Market Analysis Beyond Technical Analysis

Italy’s Black Economy Worth 13 Percent of GDP

Is Italy’s Black Economy really worth 13% of GDP

Estimates indicate that Italy’s black economy could be worth 13% or more of the GDP. However, the black economy issue plagues many nations within the EU, so they are all making moves to include this in their GDP calculations.