Iran War: Unraveling Pandora's Box

Rising Tensions: The Iran War Dilemma

Updated Dec 2022

I don’t believe that the big men, the politicians and the capitalists alone are guilty of the war. Oh, no, the little man is just as keen. Otherwise, the people of the world would have risen in revolt long ago! There is an urge and rage in people to destroy, to kill, to murder, and until all mankind, without exception, undergoes a great change, wars will be waged, everything that has been built up, cultivated and grown, will be destroyed and disfigured, after which mankind will have to begin all over again. Anne Frank 1929-1945, German Jewish Refugee, Diarist

Originally published in August 2006, this historical article provides a striking reflection on the current situation in Iran. It becomes apparent that history has a peculiar way of repeating itself. An article from August 2006 sheds light on events that bear a striking resemblance to what we are witnessing today. It is disheartening that many dismiss such historical insights, consigning them to oblivion, when in fact, history is an ever-present force influencing our daily lives.

The wisdom lies in acknowledging that history’s relevance is not confined to the past; it remains in motion, shaping current events. It is astonishing how human actions often lead to avoidable pain and suffering if only prudence prevailed.

Iran War: History Repeating Itself: A Glimpse into the Past and Present

One example involves Iran’s oil exports and its threats to close the Straits of Hormuz in response to potential Security Council actions. Remarkably, these very actions are under consideration today, illustrating the cyclical nature of historical patterns.

Moreover, the article points out the persistence of foolishness and idiocy among those in power. Regrettably, this trend continues, and leaders seem to embrace such behaviour willingly, irrespective of how information travels faster today.

Furthermore, the complexities of international relations are not new, as demonstrated by Iran’s interactions with Switzerland and the pressures surrounding its nuclear dossier. Similar diplomatic challenges persist to this day, mirroring past events.

Iran War: Could War Be an Inevitable

The outlined threats from Iran provide a glimpse into the high stakes of the current situation. If Israel and the United States decide to take military action against Iran due to their strong opposition to a nuclear-armed Iran, the consequences are complex and potentially severe.

In our perspective, such a strike might only temporarily delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions at best. At worst, it could lead to a surge in terrorist activities and cause chaos in Iraq, given Iran’s significant influence there with the Shiites in power. Moreover, there is a risk of triggering a regime change in Pakistan, which could result in radicals gaining control and posing a nuclear proliferation threat.

The effectiveness of a strike against Iran is doubtful because their nuclear program is widely dispersed and hidden in underground facilities, some of which are situated in densely populated areas. The moral implications of causing harm to innocent civilians while attempting to destroy these sites make such an operation highly unlikely. Additionally, Iran’s open threats to relocate its nuclear program to other countries with hostile relations to the US pose further challenges.

Iran War could be a disaster for the Middle East

If Iran faces an attack, it is likely to respond with various options at its disposal. Unlike Iraq, Iran is considered a stronger and more formidable player, especially with the backing of China and Russia. Reports suggest that China is heavily investing in Iran, amounting to nearly $100 billion, making it unlikely that they would want to see their investments jeopardized.

One of Iran’s potential retaliatory measures could be cutting off their oil supply. Given the current high price of oil, Iran has substantial financial resources at its disposal, allowing them to take such action. This move could immediately remove around 4.2 million barrels from the global market, significantly impacting global oil supplies.

Recognizing that an attack on Iran could trigger a chain of events with widespread ramifications is crucial. Their alliances with powerful countries like China and Russia might lead to further complications and international implications.

Any potential escalation in the region requires careful consideration, as the consequences of military actions and retaliatory measures can have far-reaching effects on the global economy, security, and stability. Diplomatic efforts and strategic dialogues are essential in resolving the situation without further exacerbating tensions.

The Strait of Hormuz spans approximately 280 kilometres in length, with its narrowest point measuring only around 50 kilometres wide. This crucial waterway holds immense global significance as it serves as the sole sea route through which oil from major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates can be exported to the rest of the world.

The strait’s strategic location and its role in facilitating the movement of oil make it a critical area for international trade and energy security. Any disruptions or blockades in this narrow passage could have significant impacts on the global economy and energy markets.

Iran could close the Straits of Hormuz completely.

At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz measures only 50 kilometres wide, making it a vulnerable area to potential threats. One concerning scenario is the deployment of Chinese Silkworm missiles, which could be used to target and destroy supertankers, causing chaos in the region. These missiles travel close to the speed of sound and fly at low altitudes, making them difficult to detect by radar, thereby posing a significant challenge to maritime security.

In addition to missile attacks, the strait may be flooded with mines, further obstructing maritime traffic. Such actions could have devastating consequences, as over 21 million barrels of oil production per day from multiple oil-producing nations could be cut off instantly. This amount exceeds the daily consumption of the United States, showcasing the potential impact on global oil markets.

Many might argue that the United States would not tolerate the strait remaining closed and could intervene with their advanced Aegis warships. However, Iran’s possession of the SSN-22 missiles, designed to counter the Super Aegis defence system, adds to the situation’s complexity. These missiles, with speed twice that of sound, can be launched from a distance of up to 120 kilometres, and their potential presence in the heavily fortified narrow point of the Strait of Hormuz creates further challenges.

The implications for global trade, energy security, and regional stability would be severe in such a scenario. Any escalation of tensions in the region would require careful consideration and diplomatic efforts to mitigate potential risks and ensure safe navigation through this vital waterway.

Iran War, Straits of Hormuz and the Deadly SSN-22

The potential threat posed by Iran’s vast arsenal of anti-ship missiles, especially the high-speed SSN-22 Sunburn missiles, is a matter of concern. The ability of these missiles to cause significant damage to Aegis warships is a worrisome factor in any conflict scenario, and the US Navy would face considerable challenges in opening up the Strait of Hormuz under such circumstances.

Drawing a parallel with the Falklands War, where a limited number of sea-skimming missiles caused damage to British warships, highlights the potential destructive power of such weapons in a confined and critical region like the Strait of Hormuz.

Furthermore, Iran’s advancement in missile technology, particularly with the Shahab missiles, raises the stakes further. Their extended reach puts US targets in the Middle East and Europe within striking distance, increasing the complexity of the security situation.

Given Iran’s domestic production capabilities for these missiles, they have a significant supply, making the potential threat even more substantial.

The prospect of employing chemical weapons adds another layer of concern to the already delicate situation. Full Story

Russia Is Still Supping Iran with Arms

Indeed, Russia’s refusal to halt arms supplies to Iran raises additional concerns and complicates the situation. The upcoming sizable shipment from Russia raises questions about its contents and potential impact on Iran’s military capabilities.

When considering possible courses of action, it becomes evident that an aerial attack may not be as effective as a full-scale ground assault. However, the latter option presents challenges, as the current availability of troops may not be sufficient to handle such an operation. In the event of a ground assault, the prospect of reintroducing the draft becomes a possibility to gather enough soldiers to address the situation adequately.

A critical point to keep in mind is Iran’s potential response to any attack. They could immediately increase funding to various terrorist groups, which might initiate attacks on US interests globally. This, coupled with the already complex situation in Iraq, could escalate into a more dangerous and volatile scenario.

Iran is heavily armed, and it is not Iraq.

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have significant and immediate repercussions on the global economy and energy markets. The shock to the world would be immense, leading to a dramatic spike in oil prices. Oil prices could surge to over $100 a barrel and reach up to $150 within just a few days.

Historically, oil prices have tended to double whenever there have been threats or disruptions in the Middle East. This was evident during the 1970s and the first Gulf War.

The difference now is that more nations are major oil consumers, competing for the same limited resource. Countries like China and India were not significant players in the oil market in the past, but now China stands as the world’s second-largest oil consumer. Moreover, other factors, such as Indonesia’s increasing dependency on oil imports, have altered the global dynamics.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, even without considering the broader consequences of attacking Iran, would create havoc in the global energy market. It could lead to supply shortages, economic disruptions, and higher costs for consumers and businesses worldwide.

Potential opportunities if the above scenario should unfold

Natural gas prices are expected to surge significantly because many businesses are opting for it as an alternative to oil. The situation worsens as the current supply is already limited.

In addition, coal prices will soar as numerous utility companies are compelled to reactivate old power plants due to the exorbitant costs of oil. Moreover, there is a potential for sudden spikes in demand, which could cause natural gas prices to skyrocket at any given moment.

Precious metals could soar.

With Silver and Gold experiencing significant corrections, individuals who don’t currently have positions may consider purchasing bullion now. However, it is more probable that Bitcoin could be the main beneficiary, as many people seem to have overlooked the value of tangible assets.

Uranium prices might witness a surge as more countries rush to embrace Nuclear energy. Ukraine’s recent announcement of plans to construct 14 nuclear power plants to reduce their dependence on Russia for energy needs is a clear example of this trend.

Nevertheless, it is preferable for this scenario not to materialize, as the opportunities mentioned above will inevitably come to fruition. The hope is for these developments to occur without a massive global disruption in oil supplies and unnecessary loss of lives.

Iran War Update Aug 2019

The United States does not possess sufficient regional military bases to build up the forces required for an invasion of Iran. This invasion would aim to destroy Iran’s armed forces, overthrow the revolutionary regime in Tehran, and subsequently establish control under a more favourable government. One potential option could be deploying U.S. forces in Iraq, but this would likely involve another war to change the current government in Baghdad.

An alternative approach might involve an amphibious forced entry into Iran, which could reduce some basing requirements. However, this would expose U.S. forces to the risk of Tehran’s ballistic missiles, resulting in significant casualties. Additionally, even if the initial invasion were successful, it would not solve the challenge of occupying and governing the country after the conflict ends. Full Story

Iran and USA At logger’s heads

The relationship between the U.S. and Iran has been characterized by hostility for many decades, but recently, tensions have reached an exceptionally high level. The U.S. is taking measures to cut off Iran’s oil revenue, which is crucial to its economy. In response, Iran has been accused of engaging in acts of sabotage against oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. With the U.S. increasing its military presence in the region and Iran surpassing the limits set for its nuclear program, there is a significant risk of miscalculation, potentially leading to a war neither side claims to desire.

Iran has asserted that it will not passively endure economic punishments imposed by the U.S. It has admitted to exceeding the agreed-upon caps on enriched uranium stockpiles and purity levels. Moreover, the U.S. has held Iran responsible for vessel attacks in the Persian Gulf, although Iran denies these accusations. One notable incident involved Iran seizing a British oil tanker in July following the impoundment of an Iranian crude-loaded ship off Gibraltar on suspicion of violating EU sanctions by transporting oil to Syria. The release of the second ship in mid-August led the U.S. to threaten sanctions against any entity involved in business with Iran. Full Story

Conclusion

Launching an attack on Iran would have severe consequences, akin to opening Pandora’s Box; the outcome would be wrong, and the question remains just how bad. Russia and China have ambitions to regain their status as superpowers and closely observe the situation. They see the U.S. becoming entangled in Iraq and devise plans to exploit America’s vulnerabilities in the region.

For Russia and China, this situation presents a win-win scenario. If the U.S. attacks Iran, it will be heavily occupied trying to control the situation, leaving the door wide open for Russia and China to supply sophisticated weapons to Iran and tie down the U.S. in a prolonged conflict. As the chaos unfolds, these two nations can comfortably watch from the sidelines while simultaneously exerting complete control over neighbouring regions.

China may focus on Taiwan, aiming to assert its dominance in the region, and Russia might take a more aggressive stance towards former Soviet Union countries attempting to align with the West. In this way, both Russia and China see an opportunity to advance their geopolitical interests and expand their influence while the U.S. is preoccupied with the repercussions of attacking Iran.

This information was originally published on August 8, 2006, and has been regularly updated over the years, with the latest update being in Dec 2022

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