Iran War Disaster, Chaos And Opportunity; How to play this trend
Iran War Disaster, Chaos And Opportunity

Iran War Disaster, Chaos And Opportunity

Iran War

Iran War

I don’t believe that the big men, the politicians and the capitalists alone are guilty of the war. Oh, no, the little man is just as keen. Otherwise, the people of the world would have risen in revolt long ago! There is an urge and rage in people to destroy, to kill, to murder, and until all mankind, without exception, undergoes a great change, wars will be waged, everything that has been built up, cultivated and grown, will be destroyed and disfigured, after which mankind will have to begin all over again. Anne Frank 1929-1945, German Jewish Refugee, Diarist

This a historical look at the situation in Iran; the article was originally published on August 2006. However, take a look at what is going on, and you will see that History is repeating itself again.  Articles like this don’t necessarily need to end up in the dustbin of time, though many foolishly relegate them to this fate.  History always repeats itself and fools are the ones that look at such situations as new events.

It is the wise person that understands that history is in play almost every day, for foolish men seem to take a perverse delight in subjecting themselves to pain and misery that could easily be avoided.  Read this article and see how nothing much has changed other than the speed at which information travels. Stupidity and Idiocy are still in primary bull trends, and the morons of the world continue to hold the reigns of power.

“We have announced that if our regime is referred to the Security Council, we have several options and one of those is to close off the Straits of Hormuz so that not one drop of oil can be exported”.

“Europeans should especially comprehend that if they do not act wisely and try to act manipulatively with us, the Islamic Republic, in turn, can and will certainly stop oil leaving its shores [to Europe].”

“Switzerland’s behaviour is quite unexpected…coming from a country that even claimed neutrality during World War II. We had assumed that Swiss politicians would have made decisions more wisely. When it came to the Islamic Republic; severance of economic relation with the Islamic regime is dictated policy from the U.S. to Switzerland, and we recommend that the Swiss do not tarnish their relations with us over our nuclear dossier.”

Iran War: Could War Be an Inevitable

Those are just some of the threats that Iran has made, and we could list a whole bunch more, but that should be sufficient for everyone to get an idea of what’s at stake right now. Okay, let’s assume Israel and the United States strike Iran as both countries strongly oppose a nuclear Iran. In our opinion such a strike will at best only delay the inevitable ( A Nuclear Iran) and at worst result in a huge surge in terrorist activity, total chaos in Iraq (as Iran has a very strong influence now that the Shiites are in charge) and it could even bring about a regime change in Pakistan. If a regime change should occur in Pakistan with radicals in charge, they might be willing to sell Iran or other nations a nuclear bomb.

The main reason a strike against Iran is almost futile is that they have spread their nuclear program very widely and it would be impossible to destroy them all. Iran has deliberately placed many of its sites underground in heavily populated areas. The US and Israel would never risk killing hundreds of thousands of people just to get at these sites. Furthermore, Iran has openly threatened to move its program to other countries that have hostile relations with the US.

Iran War could be a disaster for the Middle East

If Iran is attacked, they will retaliate, and they have several options on the table. They are not as weak as Iraq, and they have strong support from the Chinese and Russian governments. It’s reported that China is looking to invest close to 100 billion dollars in Iran and we are sure these guys are not going to let their investment go up in smoke.

The first thing Iran could do is simply cut off their oil supply. At this point in time, they can afford to do this because they are loaded with money to the gills due to the high price of oil. That would take 4.2 million barrels plus of the market immediately.

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The total length of the straits of Hormuz is approximately 280Km, and the width at the narrowest point is only about 50km. The Strait of Hormuz happens to be one of the most important areas in the world as it’s the only sea route through which oil from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates can reach the outside world.

Iran could close the Straits of Hormuz completely.

At its narrowest point its only 50 km wide. All they would have to do is deploy the copy cat version of the Chinese Silkworm missiles and blow up several supertankers to cause chaos. These missiles travel nearly at the speed of sound and travel so low that they are practically skimming off the waves; this makes them virtually invisible to radar. Then to make sure that no one comes in they could flood the place with mines. Take a look at the map above if the straits were closed all those oil-producing nations would have no way to get their oil to the markets. Over 21 million barrels a day of production would be cut off instantaneously; this is more then what the US consumes.

Now many are going to say that the US is not going to allow the straits to remain closed they can send in the Huge Aegis warships. That’s where the dreadful Iranian SSN-22 missiles come in. These missiles were designed by the Russians to deal with Super Aegis’s defence system. They travel at twice the speed of sound and can be launched from up to 120km away from the target (remember at the narrowest point the Strait of Hormuz is only 50km wide; its believed that this position is heavily fortified with Silkworm missiles and the SSN-22 Sunburn missiles).

There is no defence against the SSN-22

It will virtually rip an Aegis warship in half, and the Iranians have hundred of these rockets. The US Navy would be stuck and unable to open up the Strait of Hormuz. In the Falklands war, Argentina had less than nine anti-ship sea-skimming missiles (they were produced by France and were similar in nature though not as fast as the Russian Sunburns) and they were able to sink 2 British warships. Imagine the damage Iran could do with the hundreds of the worlds fastest anti-ship missiles.

Lastly, Iran’s new Shahab missiles can now quickly reach all US targets in the Middle East and the new missiles they recently acquired from North Korea puts Europe in range now. Iran will launch as many of these missiles as possible, and since they are built at home, they have a huge supply of them. Iran also possesses chemical weapons and it’s possible that it could use these. The link below provides a look at some of Iran’s arsenal.  Full Story

Russia Is Still Supping Iran with Arms

One must not forget that Russia has refused to heed the United States call to stop supplying Iran with arms and they are scheduled to receive a rather large shipment soon. One can only wonder what this shipment might contain.

Other factors to consider are the following

1)       An aerial attack is not as fully effective as full-scale ground assault. However, at this point in time, we do not have the troops to do this. If we should ever take this route, then expect the draft to make a comeback because that’s the only way we will be able to have enough soldiers to deal with the situation.

2)       Iran will immediately increase funding to all Terrorist groups who will start to attack US interests all over the world. Also, the current situation in Iraq will look like Childs plays.

Conclusion

Attacking Iran is like opening Pandora’s Box; the result is going to be bad the question is just how bad. Russia is looking to re-establish its influence as a superpower and China also wants to be considered as one of the big kids on the block. They are sitting there very smartly watching the US bury itself in Iraq, and they are making plans to take advantage of the United States weakness now that we are bogged down in Iraq.

These two nations are in a win-win situation right now. If the US attacks Iran, they will be completely tied down to make sure they are linked down till they bleed to death all these two chaps have to do is keep supplying the Iranian with sophisticated weapons. Then they sit on the sidelines and watch the chaos and in the meantime, they are now free to exert full control over the regions next to them. In China’s case, it will be Taiwan, and in Russians case, they will start playing hardball with all the former Soviet Union countries that try to form alliances with the West.

Iran is heavily armed and it is not Iraq

and they could on a moments notice shut down the Strait of Hormuz for an indefinite period. The shock to the world would be huge; oil would almost certainly spike to over 100 dollars a barrel and up to 150 dollars in a few days. Every time there has been any form of threat in the Middle East oil prices almost always doubled; this happened several times in the 1970s and also during the first Gulf war.

The difference this time is that more nations are competing for the same limited resource. In the 1970s China and India were not even on the map and Indonesia was still self-sufficient. China now is the world’s second-largest consumer of oil, and Indonesia is no longer self-sufficient. Forget about the other effects of attacking Iran, just the closure of the Straits of Hormuz is enough to cause hell.

Potential opportunities if the above scenario should unfold 

Natural gas prices will go through the roof as more business will try to use this instead of oil. To make matters worse supplies are already constrained.

Coal prices will take off as many utility companies are forced to bring on old power plants due to the high prices of oil and Natural gas prices could take off on a moments notice if demand suddenly spikes.

Precious metals could soar

And since both Silver and Gold have corrected nicely those that do not have positions could start buying some bullion now. But a more likely a benefactor could be Bitcoin as the masses seem to have forgotten the value of hard money.

Uranium prices could take off as more nations race to adopt Nuclear energy. Ukraine has recently stated that they are looking to build 14 nuclear power plants to make sure that they are not as dependent on Russia for their energy needs.

Now we would prefer that this scenario does not come true because all the opportunities we listed above are going to become a reality sooner or later. We would just prefer that they become a reality without a huge massive global disruption in oil supplies and thousands of unnecessary deaths.

Iran war Update Aug 2019

The United States lacks regional bases necessary to build up the forces that would be required to invade Iran, destroy its armed forces, displace the revolutionary regime in Tehran, and then control the country on behalf of a new, more amenable government. Conceivably, the U.S. military could deploy in Iraq, but this would likely require another war of regime change against the current Baghdad government. Alternatively, the U.S. could ameliorate some of the basing requirements by undertaking an amphibious forced entry into Iran. This would make U.S. forces particularly vulnerable to Tehran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles, however, likely incurring very heavy casualties. Moreover, it would not resolve the problem of occupying the country post-conflict. Full Story

Iran and USA At logger’s heads

Though the U.S. and Iran have lived in a state of hostility for decades, rarely have relations been as tense as in recent months. The U.S. is trying to deprive Iran of oil revenue, the lifeblood of its economy. Iran’s been accused of responding by sabotaging oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. With the U.S. stepping up its military presence in the region, and Iran exceeding limits it agreed to on its nuclear program, the risk is that a miscalculation could lead to a war that neither the U.S. nor Iran say they want.

Iran has said that it won’t sit idly by as its economy is punished by the U.S. It’s confirmed that it has surpassed agreed caps on its stockpiles of enriched uranium and exceeded the allowable level of purity. In addition, the U.S. blames Iran for a spate of vessel attacks in the Persian Gulf, an accusation Iran denies. Iran seized a British oil tanker in July after a ship loaded with Iranian crude was impounded off Gibraltar on suspicion it was carrying oil to Syria in violation of European Union sanctions. The second ship was released in mid-August, prompting the U.S. to threaten sanctions against any party doing business with it. Full Story

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The US kills innocent people, bombs two hospitals in Syria & accuses Russia  (Feb 10)

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