US Dollar Bull Maintains Unwavering Super Bullish Momentum

US Dollar Bull: Unstoppable Ascendancy in Super Bullish Territory

Updated Jan 09, 2025

Those participating in the trade outlined in the October 31st update should consider locking in profits at this stage.

The dollar traded past the 108 mark before pulling back, with the pattern now showing significant strength. This move supports the notion that the predictions of the BRICS currency replacing the USD were and are rubbish (at least for now). The increased demand for the dollar suggests its dominance remains intact. There is a possibility the dollar index could test the 109 range before experiencing another pullback. If, during this pullback, the index holds steady at or above 105, it would be a bullish signal, potentially paving the way for a test of the 112.20 to 112.80 range.

However, there’s a twist. While the demand for dollars is rising, these dollars are not being held within U.S. banks. Instead, they are being used outside the Western banking system to settle trades. This reflects a Machiavellian strategy, where the world’s reserve currency is being leveraged, yet the U.S. receives almost no benefit. Additionally, as the dollar is used outside the U.S. banking system, its strength is actually increasing the purchasing power of other nations. If our hypothesis proves to be correct, it suggests that inflationary pressures may not ease as sharply in the West. Meanwhile, deflationary forces are already taking hold in China and are spreading to several Asian countries.

Look under the “random musing section” where we discuss how Tether’s profits are surging. In short, they are surging because a large number of countries are conducting business using the dollar through its platform.

The dollar’s pattern has improved since the last update. It is currently trading in overbought territory on the weekly charts, so a consolidation or pullback would be ideal before it resumes its upward trend. If it can hold steady at or above 105 on a weekly basis while our indicators pull back, it will strengthen the case for a potential test of the 110 to 112 range.

Traders can consider entering new longs on a test of the 104.70 to 105.00 range using UUP. For those with a higher risk tolerance, purchasing LEAPS (calls) on UUP offers an alternative with more leverage. Market Update Nov 24, 2024

The key takeaway is that one should never wager on what seems obvious at first glance. The strategy lies in going against the grain, countering the crowd. The masses tend to repeat the same mistakes, driven by herd mentality, and logic tells us they can’t win in the long run. The dollar will undoubtedly decline significantly, though that moment is not yet upon us. The extent of its rise will largely depend on Trump’s policies. If he persists with his misguided tariff approach, the dollar may experience a short-term boost. Still, ultimately, this will set the stage for its downfall as other nations seek alternative solutions.

Pretty much what we stated has come to pass. The dollar rallied strongly and traded well past 8100. It is within striking distance of putting in a new 52-week high. The weekly trend is still positive, so after a bit of consolidation (not necessary, but it would be good), the dollar should be able to test the 83.50-84.00 ranges and eventually (unless the trend changes) rally to and past 85.50. Market Update August 26, 2014

The dollar has hit our suggested targets in a relatively short period. Again, this shows that logic is not the right tool for the markets. Given our massive debt and the rate at which we print new dollars, the USD should sink. Instead, it is trading at new highs.

US Dollar Bull: Resolute Strength Sustains Super Bullish Stance

The dollar broke out quite strongly. On the very short-term time frames, it is overbought, and such a strong move usually is followed with a test of the former resistance zone now turned into support; this zone falls in the 81.80-82.00 ranges. It is also likely to run into resistance as it tests the former uptrend line in the 84.50-84.70 ranges. June 14, 2015

The idea of the dollar “dying” is absurd, but its strength is equally illusory—it’s nothing more than a game of musical chairs. While all currencies depreciate, the dollar may appear to be gaining ground simply because it is losing value slower than others. Picture this: a room filled with 1,000 idiots, and one of them is called a genius only because he’s less of a fool than the rest. Does this make him a genius or merely another fool convinced he’s special?

The dollar is poised for a potential rally to 110, possibly even higher, and there’s a real chance it could hit new all-time highs. But this creates an interesting paradox: as the dollar soars, commodities, the true backbone of any economy, will likely continue to rise. The dollar’s apparent strength is temporary, a mere mirage in the desert of global economic instability. As the dollar inflates, commodities will gain in value, offering a true gauge of wealth, while the dollar merely reflects a race to the bottom.

Ultimately, the dollar’s apparent dominance is a smoke screen. While it may seem strong for now, it’s only a matter of time before the real economic forces at play force a reckoning. When the inevitable collapse comes, the masses—blind to the true dynamics of global trade and currency manipulation—will be left scrambling for cover, realizing too late that the emperor has no clothes.

Originally published June 14, 2015. New notes added Jan 2025

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