The Israel Iran War: Evaluating the Case Against Military Action

Israel Iran War does not let to a good outcome

Unveiling the Israel Iran War: Historical Background and Current Perspectives

Updated March 2023

We cannot advance without new experiments in living,
but no wise man tries every day what he has proved wrong the day before. James Truslow Adams 

Delving into the complex dynamics of the Israel-Iran war, this article embarks on a captivating journey, tracing the historical background and exploring the latest thoughts in 2023.

As we unravel the intricate threads of the Israel-Iran war, bridging past and present, we understand this multifaceted conflict more deeply. By exploring the historical backdrop and examining the latest thoughts in 2023, we strive to shed light on the complexities that shape the ever-evolving landscape of this ongoing struggle.

Israel Iran War: The Argument Against Military Action 

We want to state up front that we are viewing this situation from an observer’s perspective. Hence, we are not taking sides. We are just looking at how things could develop based on the events that have, are and will most likely continue to unfold. In addition, most wars and almost all confrontations are usually based on the opponent’s perspective rather than hard cold facts.  As usual, one of the big components of war is psychology, and if we can get some insight into the mindset of the two players, one can come away with some pretty great information. This information can then be utilized to position oneself strategically to best deal with upcoming problems.

Those in charge in Iran are hell-bent on seeking the destruction of Israel, and things are now reaching such a stage that Israel might have no option but to attack.

 Ayatollah Rafsanjani’s Provocative Call: Nuclear Weapons and Israel

During the traditional Friday prayers in Tehran, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, one of Iran’s influential ruling clerics, made a call to Muslim nations, suggesting the use of nuclear weapons against Israel. He assured them that such an attack would result in the annihilation of Israel, while causing only “damages” in the Muslim world. The Ayatollah emphasized that if the Islamic world possessed the same level of armament as Israel, it would create a stalemate against colonialism, as an atomic bomb would leave nothing of Israel but would only cause damage in the Muslim world.

Rafsanjani is second only after the all-powerful Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and as such, he wields considerable power. He has also admitted that several million Muslims could die in a nuclear war with Israel but states that would be a small price to pay to get rid of Israel forever.

 Ahmadinejad: Openly calling for the destruction of Israel.

Almost everyone in power is ready to embark on a mission to destroy Israel at any cost.  President Ahmadinejad openly mocks the US, and now that Bush has suffered a massive blow with losses in the House and Senate, the rhetoric will increase.  Bush is no longer in a position to start dropping bombs on Iran, and increasingly, he might need Iran’s or Syria’s help to stabilize things in Iraq.

Israel cannot accept a nuclear-armed Iran as it comes down to pure survival; they feel that if Iran has a nuclear bomb, they will not hesitate to use it immediately.  Israel also feels that the world is grossly underestimating Iran’s progress and that they will be ready to produce nuclear weapons relatively soon as opposed to the West View of 7-10 years.

Iran does not possess nuclear weapons and is estimated to be approximately two years away from obtaining them. However, it is projected that by around 2006, Iran could be capable of producing the necessary materials for atomic bombs through uranium enrichment at the Natanz facility and plutonium production at the Arak facility. The Natanz site has the potential to yield enough uranium for approximately five bombs annually, while the Arak facility could produce enough plutonium for up to three bombs each year.

Iran’s Nuclear Advancements and Regional Arms Race Implications

If Iran were to acquire atomic bombs, it would pressure other countries in the region to follow suit. Many Arab nations perceive it as unfair that Israel possesses nuclear weapons. Consequently, if Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia but also Egypt and possibly Syria, found themselves caught between a nuclear-armed Israel and a nuclear-armed Iran, it would significantly increase their inclination to pursue their nuclear capabilities. Such a scenario could potentially trigger a regional arms race in the Middle East, likely leading to heightened instability given the numerous conflicts and instabilities already present in the region Full story

Before Ahmadinejad became president, he actively recruited individuals for suicide operations and continued advertising in local newspapers seeking potential martyrs. He even expressed recently that martyrdom is “the most divine artistry.”

Jaafari, a high-ranking officer in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), stated in an interview with a hard-line weekly publication close to Iran’s ultra-conservative President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that a new group called the “Lovers of Martyrdom Garrison” would recruit individuals willing to carry out suicide attacks against Western targets. The interview titled “Commander of Lovers of Martyrdom Garrison: Let America and Israel know, each of our suicide volunteers equals a nuclear bomb” can be read in its original Persian language at, according to Iran Focus.

Ahmadinejad’s Call for Martyrdom and Militant Recruitment Efforts

Jaafari explained to the weekly Parto-Sokhan, “The Lovers of Martyrdom Garrison has been activated, and we will establish a Martyrdom-seeking Division in each province of the country, organized into brigades, battalions, and companies, all dedicated to defending Islam.” He further stated, “The Imam [Khomeini] said years ago that Israel must be wiped off the face of the Earth, but practical steps have not been taken to achieve this. Our garrison must identify, recruit, organize, and train individuals willing to seek martyrdom to realize this objective.”

Moreover, Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, expressed that Israel is an alien presence and suggested that its people should return to Europe or settle in Alaska.   Full story

Ahmadinejad stated, “Thanks to people’s desires and by the will of God, the existence of the Zionist regime is on a downward trend, as promised by God and desired by all nations.” He added, “Just as the Soviet Union ceased to exist and was wiped out, the Zionist regime will soon meet the same fate.” His remarks were met with applause from delegates attending the Holocaust conference, which consisted of ultra-Orthodox anti-Israel Jews and European and American writers who promoted theories suggesting that the Holocaust was either fabricated or exaggerated.

Iran states that they have now recruited over 40,000 individuals

These people are ready and willing to martyr themselves to liberate Islamic lands.  There is not one week that goes by without some rhetoric flying out of Iran in regard to Israel or the US.

Now most of this could be viewed as simple rhetoric, but the military chaps in Israel are also trigger-happy and jumpy; this was demonstrated in the ill-planned and unnecessary invasion of Lebanon.  The problem here is that the governments of both these nations hate each other; when emotions take over, things get very dangerous.  It is also rumoured that North Vietnam has supplied nuclear know-how to the Iranians, which could speed things up even more.

Israel is also becoming more vocal.

Regarding the action Israel is willing to take against Iran, Olmert openly acknowledged in a recent statement that Israel possesses nuclear weapons.

During a German television interview aired at the beginning of his official visit to Berlin, Olmert stated, “Iran openly, explicitly, and publicly threatens to wipe Israel off the map. Can you say this is on the same level, when they aspire to possess nuclear weapons, as America, France, Israel, Russia?”

The reluctance to openly acknowledge Israel’s nuclear capabilities has been a source of discontent for Arab nations and Iran, as they perceive a double standard in Western demands for Tehran to accept inspections on its nuclear program, which Iran claims is intended for peaceful purposes.

“It is possible that Olmert wanted to imply Israel’s capabilities as part of the aggressive statements he has recently been making, to warn the West that if they do not address the Iran issue, Israel will,” noted Yedioth analyst Ronen Bergman.

“We will continue to pursue the same policy,” Olmert emphasized. “We will fulfil our responsibilities, and no one should think for a moment that we will remain passive in light of recent developments.”

Israel now has a problem.

Dealing with individuals unafraid of sacrificing their lives for a cause presents a significant challenge. Furthermore, when a government openly supports and promotes such an outlook, the situation becomes even more complex. In the case of Israel, its military is deeply concerned about the potential consequences if Iran acquires a nuclear weapon, as they perceive it as an existential threat to their nation. Israel feels that few countries, apart from possibly the United States, fully grasp the seriousness of this threat. Consequently, Israel believes it may have to take unilateral and swift action.

Addressing this situation requires careful consideration and a multifaceted approach. Engaging in diplomatic efforts to foster international consensus and cooperation is important. Encouraging dialogue and negotiations between nations is crucial to find peaceful solutions and prevent further escalation. International organizations, such as the United Nations, can play a vital role in facilitating discussions and promoting diplomatic resolutions.

 Strengthening Non-Proliferation and Diplomatic Efforts for Regional Stability

Efforts should also strengthen non-proliferation treaties and agreements, ensure rigorous monitoring and verification mechanisms, and impose strict consequences for violations. Sanctions and diplomatic pressure can be utilized to discourage governments from pursuing dangerous policies and to isolate extremist groups promoting violence.

Building alliances and partnerships with like-minded countries, sharing intelligence and expertise, and coordinating strategies can enhance the collective response to such threats. The international community should work together to bolster regional stability, promote peaceful resolutions to conflicts, and address the underlying factors contributing to extremism and radicalization.

It is important to note that military action should always be a last resort, as it carries significant risks and potential for unintended consequences. Instead, efforts should be focused on comprehensive diplomacy, conflict resolution, and preventive measures, all while prioritizing the protection of innocent lives and the region’s stability.

Israel’s Image is Tarnished

Israel is facing the challenge of a tarnished image due to recent events. Its previously perceived invincible army could not defeat guerrilla forces and experienced losses in several battles. This outcome has raised concerns and attracted attention, particularly from Iran. Iran possesses a substantial military capability and should not be underestimated. Engaging in a war with Iran would likely lead to significant losses for Israel. While Israel may maintain a technical advantage over Iran, considering its nuclear capacity, the exact extent of Iran’s arsenal, acquired from sources such as China and Russia, remains uncertain.

It is crucial to note that evaluating military strength involves various factors beyond nuclear capacity, including conventional forces, regional alliances, and strategic capabilities. The situation in the region is complex, and relying solely on military might is not a comprehensive solution. Diplomatic efforts, international cooperation, and effective strategies are needed to address security concerns and prevent conflicts. The focus should be on finding peaceful resolutions, building alliances, and maintaining regional stability.

It appears that Israel is in between a hard place and a rock.

Israel finds itself in a difficult position, caught between two unfavourable options. If they choose to take no action and allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, it could potentially lead to the demise of Israel. On the other hand, launching an attack on Iran would likely result in significant losses for Israel. President Olmert’s military leaders are likely contemplating these possibilities, but they also recognize the risks of waiting too long, as the situation could spiral out of control.

 Implications of Potential Israeli Attack on Iran and Global Market Volatility

The likelihood of Israel launching an attack on Iran is estimated to be over 75%. If such an attack occurs, it would have profound global consequences. The world would experience a substantial oil shock, impacting energy stocks, alternative energy stocks, uranium stocks, and the broader commodities sector. However, these markets’ timing and specific movements might not occur simultaneously. Some sectors may decline alongside general market trends, while other segments within the commodities market could experience upward shifts.

It is important to emphasize that these predictions are speculative and based on hypothetical scenarios. The situation is complex and uncertain, and decisions regarding military actions and their consequences involve numerous geopolitical factors. Any potential escalation should be resolved through diplomatic channels and peaceful negotiations to prevent catastrophic outcomes and maintain stability in the global markets.

Imagine 40,000 plus martyrs ready and willing to die.

The Israeli government is indeed facing a challenging situation with a government in Iran that holds favourable views towards martyrdom and openly expresses its desire to destroy Israel. It is worth noting that each country’s response to such a situation can differ based on their specific circumstances, geopolitical considerations, and strategic priorities.

While the United States may have different approaches to dealing with such a problem, it is essential to recognize that decisions regarding military action should not be taken lightly. Any military intervention’s complexities and potential consequences make it highly delicate.

If Israel chose to attack Iran, it would undoubtedly be a difficult and ugly conflict. The energy markets would likely experience significant volatility and uncertainty, potentially leading to a price surge. The situation in the region is already challenging, and an Israeli attack on Iran could escalate tensions further, creating a highly explosive and turbulent environment.

It is crucial to emphasize the importance of seeking peaceful resolutions and engaging in diplomatic efforts to address these complex issues. The international community should work together to promote dialogue, negotiation, and stability in the region, to prevent conflicts and find long-term solutions.

The Israel Iran War: Additional Footnotes

As predicted, the Religious Provocation Index has surpassed 900, indicating a significant increase in religiously motivated violence worldwide, particularly in the Middle East. In November, the index experienced a substantial surge of 30.5 points, reaching a new all-time high and surpassing the 900 mark. It is important to note that this development does not necessarily imply an immediate Israeli attack on Iran. Instead, it raises concerns about the potential for a major civil war in Iraq, which could lead to widespread instability throughout the region.

A large-scale civil war in Iraq has the potential to draw in neighbouring countries such as Turkey, Syria, and other Sunni-majority nations. These countries would likely be motivated to prevent the Shiite population from gaining excessive power. Such a scenario could exacerbate existing tensions and intensify regional conflicts.

Given the high levels of religious provocation, it is crucial for the international community to prioritize diplomatic efforts, promote dialogue, and work towards de-escalation. Collaborative measures are necessary to prevent further violence, foster stability, and address the underlying causes of religious tensions in the Middle East.


ISRAEL AND IRAN: The case against attacking Iran

 Escalating Violence in Afghanistan and its Changing Landscape

Note that the violence has increased by over 200% in Afghanistan. One of our associates headed back with his cousin looking to move back to his country possibly; 6 months later, he returned, stating that there was no way in hell he would move back permanently. Look how fast things changed in Afghanistan.

According to reports from Afghan, NATO, and coalition officials, approximately 4,000 individuals died due to violence in 2006. The casualties primarily consisted of militants, but around 300 civilians also perished tragically. In a video message obtained by AP Television News in Pakistan, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, an Afghan insurgent leader, asserted that U.S. troops would eventually face a fate similar to the Soviets who were forced out of Afghanistan in the past.

 Geopolitics: Oil Impact & Regional Instability

Over 25% of the world’s and over 80% of the Persian Gulf oil passes through the straits.  Imagine the effect of temporarily removing 13-15 million barrels of oil per day from the markets. Oil will easily trade past 99 or even 120 dollars, and Gold could easily explode past 720.  Even without a war with Iran, the geopolitical situation is bad enough in the region; Iraq could descend into a full-scale massive civil war that eventually starts to draw its neighbours in.   We already believe Iraq is in the midst of a civil war. We stated this in May of this year (we warned our subscribers via the market update) when our Exclusive religious provocation index put in another new high.

In the Long term, the situation in the Middle East can only worsen.

We are stuck in Iraq, and there appears to be no relief to the sectarian violence ripping that country apart. Iran continues to grow stronger, and even if Israel should attack Iran and attempt to destroy its nuclear facilities, it will not fully succeed. They are spread far apart, and many are buried very deep; at most, such an attack will only delay but not stop Iran from developing nuclear capabilities.  Thus, it appears that the commodities sector, in general, will remain in a super bullish phase for years to come. Note that once interest rates rise, prices of basic commodities will also increase; note how coffee, cocoa, cotton, soybeans, wheat etc., have all started to mount rather strong rallies.


Concluding thoughts 

The consequences of Israel mounting such an attack will be huge, and the impact will be felt globally; here is a partial list of what could transpire if a war should break out between these two nations.

Oil explodes upwards and, in doing so, brings inflation to the forefront of the Fed’s radar screen.  They are aware that inflation is rampant but can, via manipulation of government statistics, give the illusion that everything is fine; with oil soaring over 20-30 dollars a barrel in a matter of days, they will then be forced to raise rates. The impact on precious metals will be two-fold; not only will they take off because of the fear that this war could generate but remember, precious metals also rise in an inflationary environment.

Hence, if this situation transpires, expect Gold, Silver, Platinum etc., to mount rather huge rallies. It is for this reason; we repeatedly stated that if one has no bullion, one should make one has some exposure to both Gold and Silver bullion. Only those with positions can wait for further pullbacks to add to their jobs. Even though we are currently expecting Gold to possibly test its recent lows as it has failed to trade above its main uptrend line, which corresponds roughly to the 645 price point level. The geopolitical situation is such that the status could change immediately, so one should allocate a certain amount of money to this sector. One does now wait for the house to burn down before buying insurance.

Bottom line

At the very least, one should have 20% of their money in currencies other than the US dollar, and Gold and Silver are by far the best currencies in the world.  One should attempt to time Gold and Silver only after establishing a core position in one or both metals. We advised our subscribers to take such core positions in 2002 and early 2003 when Gold and Silver were among the most hated investments; we still have not sold our core position.  However, we wait for opportune moments to buy shares in Gold and Silver companies and lock in profits by selling a portion when the markets have risen considerably.  Finally, we still expect Silver to outperform Gold on a percentage basis.

Israel Iran War Deliberations: March 2023 Update

As of my last update in October 2021, there has not been a full-scale war between Israel and Iran. However, tensions between the two countries have remained high, with several incidents that further strained their relationship.

 Cyber Attacks: Accusations and Counterattacks

Both countries have accused each other of launching cyber attacks. In 2020, Iran blamed Israel for a major cyber attack on its Natanz nuclear facility. Israel, in turn, accused Iran of cyber attacks on its water infrastructure.

 Assassinations and Attacks: Strained Relations and Blame Game

In November 2020, Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was assassinated near Tehran, leading Iran to blame Israel for the attack. Iran has also attributed attacks on its nuclear facilities and ships in the Persian Gulf to Israel.

Aerial Strikes in Syria: Targeting Iranian Presence

Israel has conducted ongoing aerial strikes against Iranian targets in Syria, aiming to hinder Iran’s military presence. Iran’s support for the Syrian government in the Syrian Civil War has brought its forces closer to Israel’s borders.

 Nuclear Deal: Tensions and Negotiations

The U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, followed by sanctions on Iran, has added to the tensions. Israel has criticized the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), arguing it doesn’t sufficiently prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Negotiations to revive the deal have been underway as of October 2021.

 Change in Leadership: New Faces, Persistent Challenges

In June 2021, Iran elected President Ebrahim Raisi, known for his hardline stance. In Israel, Naftali Bennett succeeded Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister in the same month.

Despite these tensions, it’s important to note that as of October 2021, there has not been a full-scale war between the two countries. Both nations have engaged in what analysts term a “shadow war,” encompassing cyber attacks, targeted assassinations, and strikes on each other’s assets in third countries.

Please accept my apologies for any earlier misunderstandings. Let me know if there’s anything else I can assist you with.

Wise people, even though all laws were abolished, would still lead the same life
Aristophanes BC 448-380, Greek Comic Poet, Satirist

Originally published on June 24, 2015, this analysis has undergone consistent updates and refinements.
 The latest update  was done on March 2023

Other articles of interest:

AI Medicine set to revolutionize domestic healthcare services

AI Medicine: A Transformational Journey in Healthcare & Medicine

Editor: Draco Copper | Tactical Investor The Revolution of Healthcare and Medicine: AI's Impact on the Horizon Aug 20, 2023 ...
Abdominal Surgical Robot Markets

Abdominal Surgical Robot Market Insights and Trends

Editor: Vladimir Bajic | Tactical Investor  The Abdominal Surgical Robot Market: Growth, Advances, and Trends Aug 16, 2023 The Abdominal ...

AI-powered companies for 2023 & Beyond

AI-Powered Companies Gaining Traction in 2023 and Beyond Aug 15, 2023 Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a transformative force in ...
AI Future Trends: A Comprehensive Look

Exploring AI Future Trends: What Lies Ahead

 AI Future Trends: A Comprehensive Look at the Transformative Power of AI Aug 16, 2023 Artificial Intelligence (AI) is no ...
How to fix the student Debt debt crisis

Unmasking Stupidity: Rethinking the Student Debt Crisis

A problem clearly stated is a problem half-solved. Dorothea Brande Unravelling the Student Debt Crisis: Entitlement and Its Consequences Updated ...
Are Humans Naturally Violent: History seems to say yes

Are Humans Naturally Violent? – Predisposed to Kill Each Other

Are Humans Naturally Violent Updated Aug 9, 2023 The question "Are Humans Naturally Violent?" has been a subject of intense ...
The dangers of Third Wave Feminism

Third Wave Feminism; Has It Ruined America?

The Criticisms and Controversies of Third Wave Feminism Updated Aug 2023 Third wave feminism, while it has made significant strides ...

Discover the Benefits of Fruits That Help Weight Loss

Exploring the Role of Fruits That Help Weight Loss August 8, 2023 We'll start by briefly explaining different fruits that ...
compound with potential health benefits

Succinic Acid: Powering Sugar Control, Energy, and Inflammation

Aug 3, 2023 Succinic Acid: Enhancing Sugar Control, Energy Production, and Inflammation Management Succinic acid, a naturally occurring compound found ...

Broadening Perspectives: Embracing Alternative Viewpoints

Expanding Perspectives: The Power of Alternative Viewpoints Updated July, 2023 The power of alternative viewpoints lies in their ability to ...
Among those whom I like or admire, I can find no common denominator, but among those whom I love, I can: all of them make me laugh.H. Auden 1907-1973, Anglo-American Poet

Why Is Student Debt A Problem? Simple Fixes

Why Is Student Debt a Problem? Exploring the Consequences Updated July 2023 Student loan debt has ballooned in recent decades, ...
Scheduling Sex: A Necessity for Busy Americans

Scheduling Sex: A Necessity for Busy Americans

Editor: Philip Ragner | Tactical Investor  The Modern Dilemma: Scheduling Sex Amidst Hectic Lifestyles July 9, 2023 In today's modern world, ...
Lamborghini and Ferrari

The Rich Get Richer: Understanding Wealth Inequality

Introduction to the "Rich Get Richer" Phenomenon July 8, 2023 Wealth inequality refers to the uneven distribution of wealth among ...
Navigating Market Pessimism: Understanding the Permabear Doomster Mentality

Permabear Doomster: All Bark With No Bite

Editor: Vladimir Bajic | Tactical Investor Unveiling the Mindset: Exploring the Permabear Doomster Perspective July 2023 Introduction: In investing, some individuals ...
Blue gas; what is it and does it work

Blue Gas: Hype or Reality for Sustainable Fuel?

What is Blue Gas? Updated June 2023 Blue gas, also known as blue hydrogen, has gained significant attention over the ...

Avoid These Common Stock Investment Mistakes

Technical Analysis

Why Mechanical and Technical Analysis Systems Fail

The Limitations of Trend Lines

Contrarian Investment Guidelines

Inductive Versus Deductive reasoning

Portfolio Management Suggestions

Ultimate Timing Indicator

Esoteric Cycles

Introduction to Mass Psychology

Crowd Psychology and Markets