Random Ideas & Thoughts On Stock Market Investing
Random Ideas & Thoughts On Stock Market Investing

Random Ideas & Thoughts On Stock Market Investing

Random Ideas

We live in the present, we dream of the future, but we learn eternal truths from the past
Madame Chiang

 

Random Ideas & Thoughts On Stock Market Investing 2019

We are entering a new paradigm; get used to forever QE, though it will be given other names along the journey to make it appear more palatable. The US and by default worldwide debt is set to soar to preposterous levels; if a national debt of almost $22 trillion is shocking to some; imagine how they will feel when the debt soars to $100 trillion.  Market Update Feb 28, 2019

If you shook your head vigorously when you read the above statement,  print it and put it somewhere, you can easily access and then review it a few years from today.  You will be unpleasantly surprised to see how much the situation has changed; the masses are not paying any attention to the national debt.

Central bankers

Have become very adept at deflating a nation’s currency while maintaining the illusion all is well. This is achieved by subsidising key industries, using a basket of goods that (and the sectors these goods originate from are usually the one’s receiving massive subsidies) paint a false picture regarding inflation and most importantly, they control the media.    Let’s briefly look at some of these subjects today.

Now the markets are pulling back (Aug 2019) and we are getting triggered into some of these plays. Don’t let market volatility change the angle of your perception. The masses complain about better prices when their wish comes true, they panic and flee to the hills and that is what they call investing. They are either oscillating between misery or euphoria and both have a dangerously short lifespan.

We are content with markets current action as it’s letting out a dose of steam and so should you. This action flushes out the weak hands and provides the market with the energy necessary to overcome serious zones of resistance. Fiat Currency: Instruments of Mass Destruction

Random Ideas  on Retirement 2018 

The world is going to end, the US dollar is going to crash, Gold will soar to the Moon, and Pigs will fly over it. Well, we added the last bit to throw in some humour. Are you not sick of the stories talking about how things are only set to worsen? If you add all the proclamations made by these so-called wise men for the past 100 years, the world as we know should have ended several times over.

The fact that it has not points out that all those wise pundits were wise only when compared to the reliable donkey.  Life is very short, and most people spend a vast amount of their time focussing on what was, what should be and what could be. How about trying a new approach; enjoy the moment, for that, is all you have.  If you have a decent roof over your head, money in the bank and food, you are infinitely better off than over 50% of the world. Let that sink in for a moment. Anything more than that pushes you, even further up the rung of wellbeing.

Random Ideas on Mass Media Pushing a False Narrative

The sad fact is you don’t even need half of the ridiculous figures experts are pushing because even at ¼ of the stated figures which are surpassing one million, most of the world’s population stands no chance of achieving the stated goal. The stated goal like everything mass media and the experts push is to get the masses to buy into the lie they are selling and sow the seeds of doubt. Doubt then gives way to fear and paranoia and the rest, as they say, is history.

How do people get their info? Don’t they see the world through a prism? What is this prism for most individuals; TV, and Mass Media?  What if the intention were to provide the masses with the wrong image or ideas, therefore no matter how hard they tried to solve the problem, they would fail, as they would be analysing the wrong data. Think of Pluto’s allegory of the caves.

What is worse fear or the frightened? To be continued subtly in future updates. Early retirement & The Lie The Masses Have Been Conned Into Accepting

Random Ideas 2006

We first examined this list on July 4th and then on Nov 7th

SymbolPositive Divergence
Hourly charts Daily charts
Negative Divergence
Hourly Charts
$INDUNoNoWe have a huge array of negative divergence signals on the hourly charts and now the daily chart has flashed a negative divergence signal.
$DJTYes. Actually, it went on to issue a double positive divergenceNoNo on the hourly charts but we do have an open negative divergence signal on the daily charts which indicates that there is still more downside here.
INTCNoYesSeveral back to back negative divergence signals on the hourly charts
SMHNoYesSeveral negative divergence signals on the hourly charts.
PPHNoYesNew series of negative divergence signals flashed on the hourly charts in the last 18 days. Close to flashing one on the daily charts.
IBBNoYesSeveral negative divergence signals on the hourly charts.
$ECOYes. Double positiveYes on
the daily charts.
No
NENGInvalidatedNoYes. This means that it should rally close to the recent highs and then correct. Hence if you took a position in this play sell and lock in your profits.  Nov 07, 06As envisioned it has rallied to its old highs so traders with positions should close them with nice gains.  We also have several negative divergence signals on the hourly charts.
$XOIYesNoNo
CHKYesNoNo
IIHInvalidatedInvalidatedNegative divergences on both the daily and hourly charts so take profits and close position.
PXNInvalidatedNoSeveral negative divergence signals on the hourly charts.
DGTInvalidatedNoSeries of negative divergence signals on the Hourly charts.
MSFTInvalidatedYesSeveral negative divergence signals on the hourly charts. Very close to issuing one on the daily charts.
IYHInvalidatedYesYes on the hourly charts and just flashed one on the daily charts.
EWUInvalidatedNoYes. 3 negative divergence signals on the hourly charts and very close to flashing a negative divergence signal on the daily charts.
IJRInvalidatedNoSeries of negative divergence signals on the Hourly charts. A new negative divergence signal was just flashed on the daily charts.
EZUInvalidatedNoYes several on the hourly charts.
EWWInvalidatedNoSeveral negative divergence signals on the hourly charts. A new negative divergence signal on the daily charts was just flashed.
EPPInvalidatedNoSeveral negative divergence signals on the hourly charts.
QQQQInvalidatedYes major positive divergence signal flashedYes. Several negative divergence signals on the hourly charts. Looks like the correction will provide another buying opportunity.
$SPXInvalidatedNoYes. Series of negative divergence signals on the Hourly charts.  Very close to flashing a huge negative divergence signal on the daily charts.
$OEXInvalidatedNoYes. Series of negative divergence signals on the Hourly charts.  Very close to flashing a huge negative divergence signal on the daily charts.
IGNInvalidatedNoYes. Series of negative divergence signals on the Hourly charts.
EWZInvalidatedNoYes. Series of negative divergence signals on the Hourly charts.
$OSXInvalidatedYes. One of the few markets with a positive divergence signal flashed on the daily charts. The current pullback, therefore, is nothing but a buying opportunity.Yes. Series of negative divergence signals on the Hourly charts.
$NYSEInvalidatedNoYes.  Several negative divergence signals on the hourly charts. It is very close to issuing a large negative divergence signal on the daily charts.
$DWCInvalidatedNoYes. Several negative divergence signals on the hourly charts.
EWNInvalidatedNoYes on the hourly charts, if the TA indicators can move up a little bit more then the negative divergence signal on the daily charts will be invalidated and the markets in the Netherlands should just experience a normal correction.
EWLInvalidatedNoYes on both the hourly and daily charts.
EWAInvalidatedNoYes on the hourly charts, on the daily charts it was temporarily invalidated but if the TA indicators do not move soon another large negative divergence signal could be flashed.
EWTYesNoNo negative divergence on the hourly chart but a rather big negative divergence on the daily chart. We would avoid the Taiwanese markets for the time being.
EWOInvalidatedYes both on the hourly and daily charts
EWIInvalidatedNoOnly on hourly charts. Negative divergence signal on the daily charts was recently invalidated. .
EWDInvalidatedNoOnly on hourly charts. Negative divergence signal on the daily charts was recently invalidated. So it should do well after a pullback.
EWKInvalidatedNoOnly on hourly charts. Negative divergence signal on the daily charts was recently invalidated. So it should do well after a pullback.

Double positive divergence

It means that two back to back positive divergence signals were generated.  Green denotes the index has gained in value since the signal was flashed. Red means the index lost value. Blue means the index etc was just added to the list hence no results are available.  Invalidated means that the positive divergence signal on the hourly charts or daily charts is no longer valid depending on what column it appears under.

Negative divergences: A yes means it has taken place on the hourly charts only unless otherwise specified.

Closing the discussion on Random Ideas

This analysis provided us with some rather valuable information back in June and it was one of the reasons we stuck our necks out and stated that the Dow would most likely go on to put in a new series of highs.  In June almost all the issues examined above were flashing positive divergence signals on the hourly and daily charts and most of them are trading significantly higher now. However, look at how the picture has changed now almost all of them are flashing negative divergence signals on both the hourly and daily charts.

We, therefore, believe that the current sharp pullback is a fake trap for all the dumb money and that we should witness a rather massive short squeeze in the not too distant future that might push the Dow to a new all-time high. It’s then when everyone is feeling smug having so easily forgotten what took place in the months of May and in June that the markets will be ready to embark onto a brutal correctionMarket update June 14, 2006

We believe that there is over an 81% chance that the market has now put in a tradable bottom.  Market update on June 20, 2006.

The situation looks bad, the crowd is frothing, the Market pundits are spewing negative news constantly and it looks like all hell could break loose any time.  We must remember the proverbial old saying, which states that markets usually climb a wall of worry to which we added the following and crash down a cliff of Joy.  Since everyone appears to be worried we have to remain calm and study the action carefully.  Our analysis reveals that for now, the best stand is to remain bullishMarket Update, June 28, 2006.

The Dow needs to break past 11220 on very good volume and stay above this mark for 9 days. If it can do this there is a very good chance that it will test its old highs and then go onto put in a new all-time high.

We continue to believe that the NASDAQ will be the biggest gainer when the markets enter the full rally phase. Market update August 1, 2006.

Articles of interest:

Why Mechanical and Technical Analysis Systems Fail

The Limitations of Trend Lines

Contrarian Investment Guidelines

Inductive Versus Deductive reasoning

Mass Psychology Introduction

Portfolio Management Suggestions

Ultimate Timing Indicator

Esoteric Cycles

Multi-Time-Frame Analysis 

Free Trading resources

Random Ideas and thoughts 

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