Perhaps Time Is Not What Reality Contains, But What Finite Minds Must Construct July 28, 2026 For centuries we have treated time as one of the unquestionable ingredients of reality, a thing that flows relentlessly from past to future while carrying stars, civilizations, and every human life along with it, and we have measured it … Read more
Netflix: The Market Didn’t Punish Weak Results. It Punished Strong Results That Weren’t Strong Enough. July 27, 2026 The market’s reaction had very little to do with the quarter Netflix actually delivered and almost everything to do with the expectations riding on top of it, because when you strip the emotion away the numbers were … Read more
Manufactured Agreement:Creating Conditions Instead of Controlling Conclusions July 25, 2025 One of the oldest ambitions of persuasion was never really to inform people but rather to lift the burden of thinking clean off their shoulders, because the ideal salesman, propagandist, politician, and ideologue are all quietly chasing the same result, which is to have the … Read more
The Bridge: Pessimism as a Mispriced Asset July 25, 2026 Templeton never treated sentiment as evidence; he treated it as a pricing mechanism. When fear overwhelms reason, markets stop valuing businesses and start liquidating them indiscriminately, creating the rare moments when durable assets trade at prices that imply permanent impairment despite little evidence that their … Read more
Artificial Intelligence or Artificial Illusion? July 24, 2026 Long story short, and as we flagged in the last Market Update, several members of our team and I spent the better part of a year taking the AI story apart piece by piece, peeling back one layer after another until we could finally separate the genuine … Read more
Why Judgment May Become the Most Valuable Skill of the Next Decade July 23, 2026 Artificial intelligence, along with the AI agents and large language models riding its wake, has clearly become the dominant technology story of our moment, and yet beneath the relentless churn of headlines sits a far more interesting question that almost … Read more
Why We’ve Been Asking the Wrong Question About Artificial Intelligence July 22, 2026 Ask almost anyone who has spent time with a chatbot what goes wrong when the answers turn strange, and you’ll hear the same word thrown around like it settles the matter: hallucination. It’s a tidy label. It also happens to be, I’d … Read more
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds: A Contrarian Perspective July 22, 2026 The Madness Never Dies Few books have aged as well as Charles Mackay’s Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. Written in the nineteenth century, it catalogued speculative frenzies, financial bubbles, religious panics, and collective delusions that swept through societies … Read more
Time in the Market: The Only Edge That Compounds July 21, 2026 Why Endurance Wins When Precision Fails Market timing seduces intelligent people into making emotional decisions by convincing them they can consistently predict events that are fundamentally unpredictable. Markets compress their largest gains into a handful of explosive sessions, usually emerging from fear, dislocation, … Read more
Markets Reflect Perception, Not Reality July 20, 2026 Reality changes slowly, while perception can change in minutes, creating a gap between what businesses are actually worth and what investors temporarily believe they are worth. A company does not suddenly become worthless because its stock falls 30 percent in a month, just as a business does … Read more
