When There's Blood in the Streets Buy Property: Buy Baby, Buy

When There is Blood in the Streets, Buy Property

June 01, 2024

The adage “When there is blood in the streets, buy property” is often attributed to Baron Rothschild, an 18th-century British nobleman and member of the banking family. This phrase captures the essence of contrarian investing—a strategy involving buying assets currently out of favour with the market. The underlying principle is to capitalize on mass psychology, buying when everyone else is selling and selling when everyone else is buying.

This essay will explore the benefits of using mass psychology to buy real estate during market distress, supported by examples from experts like Sam Zell. Additionally, it will discuss scenarios when purchasing real estate may not be advisable, citing relevant examples.

The Benefits of Buying When Everyone Is Selling

Mass psychology in financial markets often leads to herd behaviour, where investors collectively follow the same trends. During periods of economic distress or market crashes, fear and panic dominate the market, driving property prices down as investors rush to liquidate their assets. This creates opportunities for savvy investors to purchase real estate at significantly lower prices.

A renowned real estate investor, Sam Zell, is a prime example of successfully utilising this strategy. He was known as the “Grave Dancer,” Zell built his fortune by buying distressed properties during market downturns. In the early 1990s, during a severe real estate recession, Zell acquired properties at bargain prices, which later appreciated significantly when the market recovered. His approach is a testament to the potential rewards of buying when others sell.

Long-Term Appreciation: A Wise Investment Strategy

Real estate investing during market downturns offers a unique opportunity for long-term appreciation. Unlike volatile assets like stocks, real estate holds an intrinsic value that tends to increase over time. Investors who purchase properties during distressed market conditions can benefit from immediate discounts and subsequent long-term gains. This strategy, employed by Warren Buffett, requires patience and a long-term perspective.

For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway seized the opportunity to invest heavily in residential real estate. By acquiring properties at depressed prices, they positioned themselves to benefit from the eventual market recovery, leading to significant appreciation in the value of their real estate holdings.

Diversification and Risk Mitigation: A Smart Play

Investing in real estate during market distress is also a powerful diversification strategy, reducing overall portfolio risk. Real estate often behaves differently from traditional asset classes such as stocks and bonds, providing a hedge against volatility. Investors can achieve better risk-adjusted returns by incorporating real estate into their portfolios.

The 2008 financial crisis is a prime example of the benefits of diversification. During this turbulent period, traditional investments took a significant hit, while some real estate assets, particularly those acquired at distressed prices, proved more resilient. Investors who had diversified their portfolios with real estate were better shielded from the full force of the market downturn and were well-positioned to benefit from the subsequent recovery.

According to a study by the National Association of Realtors, real estate investments have historically provided an average annual return of around 11%. This stability and potential for solid returns make real estate an attractive option for investors seeking to mitigate risk and capitalize on opportunities during market downturns.

Investing in real estate during market distress can be a wise strategy for long-term appreciation and risk mitigation. By embracing diversification and a patient approach, investors can turn market downturns into opportunities for financial growth and stability.

Examples of Successful Contrarian Investments

Sam Zell and the Real Estate Recession of the 1990s

Sam Zell’s success during the real estate recession of the early 1990s illustrates the power of contrarian investing. Commercial real estate prices had plummeted due to overbuilding and economic recession. While many investors were fleeing the market, Zell saw an opportunity. He acquired distressed assets, including office buildings and apartments, at a fraction of their previous value. As the market recovered, these properties appreciated significantly, generating substantial returns for Zell and his investors.

Warren Buffett and the Housing Market Post-2008

Warren Buffett’s investment in residential real estate following the 2008 financial crisis is another example of successful contrarian investing. In the wake of the crisis, housing prices had dropped significantly, and many investors were wary of the real estate market. However, Buffett recognized the long-term value and potential for recovery. Berkshire Hathaway’s subsidiaries, such as Clayton Homes and HomeServices of America, acquired distressed properties and mortgages. As the housing market recovered, these investments yielded substantial returns.

John Paulson and the 2008 Financial Crisis

A hedge fund manager, John Paulson, made a fortune by betting against the subprime mortgage market before the 2008 financial crisis. However, he also capitalized on the post-crisis real estate market. In 2009, when the market was still reeling from the crisis, Paulson purchased distressed real estate assets, including hotels and land, at deeply discounted prices. His contrarian approach paid off as the market recovered, and the value of his real estate holdings increased significantly.

When It’s Not a Good Time to Buy Real Estate

While buying property during market distress can be highly profitable, there are scenarios when it may not be advisable. Several factors can make real estate investment risky or unappealing, even during downturns.

Market Fundamentals and Overvaluation

One critical factor to consider is market fundamentals. If property prices are still overvalued despite a downturn, it may not be an excellent time to buy. For example, during the tech bubble of the late 1990s, some real estate markets experienced significant price increases driven by speculative investments. When the bubble burst, prices dropped, but not enough to align with underlying market fundamentals. Investors who bought during this period faced prolonged stagnation and minimal returns.

Structural Economic Issues

Structural economic issues can also make real estate investment risky. For instance, in regions heavily dependent on a single industry, such as oil-dependent cities, a downturn in that industry can lead to prolonged economic challenges. In the 1980s, Houston experienced a severe real estate crash due to the oil market’s collapse. Property prices plummeted, and recovery took years. Investing in such markets during downturns can be risky due to the uncertainty of economic recovery.

Lack of Liquidity and Financing

Real estate is a relatively illiquid asset, and securing financing during economic distress can be challenging. Lenders may tighten credit conditions, making it difficult for investors to obtain mortgages or loans. Additionally, the costs associated with holding and maintaining properties can be substantial. If investors lack sufficient liquidity, they may struggle to weather the downturn and be forced to sell at a loss.

Case Study: Japanese Real Estate Bubble

The late 1980s and early 1990s Japanese real estate bubble is a cautionary tale. During this period, property prices in Japan soared to unsustainable levels driven by speculative investments and easy credit. When the bubble burst, property prices plummeted, leading to a prolonged period of economic stagnation known as the “Lost Decade.” Investors who bought real estate during the bubble faced significant losses, as prices took decades to recover. This example highlights the risks of investing in overvalued markets with fundamental economic issues.

Conclusion

The adage “when there is blood in the streets, buy property” underscores the potential rewards of contrarian real estate investing. By capitalizing on mass psychology and buying when everyone else is selling, investors can acquire properties at discounted prices and benefit from long-term appreciation. Examples from experts like Sam Zell, Warren Buffett, and John Paulson demonstrate the success of this strategy.

However, it is essential to recognize that not all downturns present good buying opportunities. Market fundamentals, structural economic issues, and liquidity constraints can risk real estate investment. Careful analysis and due diligence are crucial to identifying opportunities and avoiding pitfalls.

In summary, while buying property during periods of market distress can be highly profitable, it requires a deep understanding of market dynamics and a willingness to take calculated risks. By learning from successful contrarian investors and being mindful of potential challenges, investors can navigate the complexities of real estate markets and achieve substantial returns.