Global Coal Demand: Surging Instead of Collapsing
April 2, 2025
Introduction: Coal’s Surprising Resilience: Why the Collapse Never Came
The energy landscape has shifted dramatically over the past decade, yet coal remains a cornerstone of global power generation. Despite aggressive predictions of its imminent decline, global coal demand reached a record 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024. While advanced economies are scaling back, emerging markets—especially India, Indonesia, and Vietnam—are ramping up coal consumption to meet skyrocketing energy needs. China, responsible for over 30% more coal consumption than the rest of the world combined, is expected to stabilize its demand as renewable capacity expands.
The notion that coal demand is on the brink of collapse is recycled rhetoric. Every few years, analysts set a new “peak coal” deadline, only to push it further into the future when reality contradicts their forecasts. The truth? Coal demand won’t decline because of activist pressure—it will decline when a cheaper, more efficient alternative emerges. Until then, the world still runs on coal, particularly in regions where affordability and reliability outweigh ideological narratives.
Mass Psychology and the Market’s Blind Spot
Markets operate on perception over reality, and energy markets are no exception. Investors who rely purely on headlines—rather than technical indicators and liquidity flows—often find themselves on the wrong side of a trade. Take the coal industry: technical analysis repeatedly signals strong support zones, yet sentiment-driven investors sell out too soon, believing the “coal collapse” narrative. Those who ignore the noise and focus on volume trends and key support levels often position themselves for the biggest gains.
Global coal demand is set to plateau through 2027
Global coal use has rebounded strongly after plummeting at the height of the pandemic. It rose to an estimated 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024, a record. However, demand is set to stay close to this level through 2027. In China – which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together – coal consumption is expected to level off due to the massive expansion of renewables alongside strong growth in electricity demand.
Coal demand has already peaked in most advanced economies and is expected to keep decreasing through 2027. Meanwhile, demand for coal is still increasing in some emerging economies where electricity demand is rising sharply along with economic and population growth, such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam. In emerging economies, growth is mainly driven by coal demand from the power sector, although industrial use is also increasing.
They keep saying coal demand will peak—first, it was supposed to happen already, and now they’ve pushed it to 2027. It’s the same broken record, but with a different date. Their narrative has more holes than Swiss cheese.
Here’s the reality: Coal demand won’t peak because of activist pressure—it’ll happen when a genuinely cheaper, more efficient alternative takes its place. That’s how markets work. Shouting slogans won’t change economics. Case in point? Greta and her theatrics—no expertise, no solutions, just noise. And yet, people bought it.
For now, coal stocks still have room to run. It’s abundant, cost-effective, and—contrary to outdated beliefs—modern tech has made it cleaner and more efficient. Meanwhile, the developing world still runs on coal, and demand isn’t soon disappearing.
So, while they keep shifting the goalposts, coal still helps keep the lights on—especially in resource-rich and developing regions where affordability and reliability matter most.
Market Extremes: A Window into Liquidity Dynamics
Plot a chart of a major stock index—or any fundamentally strong stock—against the money supply, and one glaring trend emerges: overbought and oversold levels have become increasingly extreme over time. The explanation is straightforward, and we have emphasized it repeatedly—liquidity. As the money supply expands, so do market fluctuations.
Now, let’s see if Trump and his team, through DOGE and other mechanisms, can slow down the Velocity of Money (VM). If they succeed, inflation will drop significantly. However, if they slow it down too much, the consequences could be negative, such as triggering a sharp stock market pullback. This is a high-stakes balancing act, akin to juggling dangerously sharp knives
Final Thoughts
Coal’s resilience isn’t a fluke—it’s a product of economic fundamentals and human behavior. While renewables grow, coal remains the backbone of energy production in much of the world. Until a superior alternative proves itself in cost, efficiency, and scalability, expect coal to defy doomsday predictions.
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