Gold Price Outlook: Soar or Slip

Gold Price Outlook: the Bull is still sleeping

Updated March 2023

If pleasures are greatest in anticipation, just remember that this is also true of trouble. Elbert Hubbard

Throughout 2016, we stated we did not expect much from Gold, and we stuck to this forecast, even though many experts went out of their way to report that Gold was ready to soar to the Moon or even to the next Galaxy. In fact, since 2011, we have continuously said that until the Trend turns positive, it would be best to play other lucrative markets, such as the general equities market, the US dollar, etc.

During this time, several experts stated that Gold was ready to surge, and some issued insane targets ranging from $20,000-$50,000. Under no circumstance can we ever see Gold going to $20,000 or $50,000, and even if we drank a whole bottle of scotch or any other toxic compound, it would still be tough to visualise such a target? Issuing such targets is perfect for fear-mongering; we find that tactic unpleasant and distasteful.

Gold Price Outlook: Experts Issue Insane Targets

You would think that experts would try to release targets that made some sense. After all, Gold has not even traded past $2,000, so it makes one wonder how any individual with a shred of common sense could issue a target of over $5,000. This target is relatively high, and we only envision it being struck under extreme conditions. Don’t fixate on these preposterous targets, for such targets are only for those who live in Lala land and have plenty of time to ponder over rubbish. Gold would need to trade past $1990 on a monthly basis to indicate significantly higher prices. Until that occurs, focus on targets that are below $2,000.

The Gold Market has, for the first time in many years, issued a confluence of bullish signals. The trend is still neutral but moving closer and closer to the bullish zone.

Gold Price Outlook: Next 12-24 Months

This is what we stated in 2017:

Gold has now given the first signal that it is getting ready to test the $1360 range with a possible overshoot to the $1380 range. If it can achieve this, it will serve as the 1st confirmation that the Gold bull market is ready to rumble again. A weekly close above $1380 will set up the path for a test of any potential challenge of the 2011 highs.

However, failure to trade above $1380 on a weekly basis will serve as a clear signal that the Gold Bull Market is not out of the woods yet. As a result of these developments, Gold no longer needs to trade down to the mid to high $1000 range. The downside risk is limited from here, and if you do not have a position in bullion, it might be prudent to deploy some funds into Gold and Silver bullion.

Bitcoin Can’t Replace Gold?

Ron Paul is one of the few good politicians out there, but when it comes to spotting the trend, he is blind as a bat. He has been calling for the destruction of the dollar for decades now. Bitcoin, as far as hard money principles apply, is just another form of fiat, albeit digital.

The Fed has learned a lot from its previous experiments. The way to win is to control the crowd’s perceptions. To do this, you alter the definition of inflation and convince them that a worthless piece of paper is as good as Gold. Both objectives have been achieved; it will take extreme pain levels to fuel mass resistance.

Good luck with trying to figure out precisely what the mass’s threshold for abuse is. Bitcoin is OK to play occasionally but will not replace the dollar or any other currency. Bitcoin is an experiment to conning the masses into embracing digital cash and eliminating paper currency.

When digital currencies are eventually embraced, the odds are very high that the government with the backing of the Fed, will issue their e-money and blow the competition out of the water. And a cashless society is what the big boys have always drooled over; first, the masses resisted, but now they are slowly folding one by one. Market Update June 12, 2019

Gold Market Outlook 2023

There seems to be a growing sense of panic within the Gold camp as recent market movements have caused significant frustration. In November 2016, Gold showed signs of taking off but ultimately traded below 1200, which further intensified when it dropped below 1150 and reached a screeching point after trading below 1130. Similarly, the frustration only heightened when Gold failed to maintain its gains (unable to stay above 2000) in March 2022.

Several technical indicators, including custom ones, have shown that weekly charts are trading in highly oversold ranges. Furthermore, the dollar is projected to reach a multi-year top in 2023, making now an opportune time to start building positions in key stocks within the precious metals sector.

While some speculative stocks have taken off, waiting for a pullback before committing to new funds may be wise. Additionally, investing in lots instead of in one shot may be a more prudent strategy.

From its low of 4.66, it’s up about 55%, which is an excellent short-term gain. When small caps stocks start to take off before the metal, it is usually a sign of good things to come. Markets are forward-looking beasts, so stocks like DRD could be pricing a more favourable future to Gold.

Never try to predict the actual Bottom or Top.

We do not try to predict tops or bottoms; we focus on trends. We are not concerned with getting in at the absolute bottom or top because that is an endeavour best reserved for fools with plenty of time. For every top or bottom you might catch, there are ten that you will miss.

When a trend changes, you have plenty of time to get in. Most bottom fishers will close their positions very early in the game as they will be happy with the quick gains they locked in after years of suffering. They realise the folly of their actions when the markets take off and soar to heights they once imagined but did not dare to play.

This is the first time since 2011 that we positively view the Gold Bull Market. Keep in mind; there is no such thing as the perfect investment. The market is imperfect; therefore, you should never put all your eggs in one basket.

Despair, in short, seeks its own environment as surely as water finds its own level.

Alvarez

Gold Price Outlook: Soar Or Slide?