Gold price trend analysis: Breakout or Breakdown

Gold price trend analysis: Breakout or?

Updated in March 2023

Gold would still have to remain above 1280 for the bullish outlook to hold, though it could trade down to 1250 without changing the outlook to bearish. A move to 1250 would simply turn the short to intermediate-term outlook to neutral, in line with the current long term outlook. This extreme move in price is due to the fact that in the long term timelines the pattern and trend are both still neutral. Until it turns bullish we can expect wild swings in both directions. Market Update August 26, 2014

The outlook will turn bullish if Gold closes above the monthly range of 1200 to 1260. However, failing to do so would lead to new lows, breaking the current support level of 1185. The dollar has been rising, but Gold has stopped trading in tandem with it. Interestingly, the Loonie is also rising with the dollar. This correction was expected as every significant bull market experiences a back-breaking correction that often misleads people into thinking the bull market is over.

However, this line of thinking is pure nonsense, and we believe this move down will scare many gold bugs. The best time to buy is when blood is on the streets, and the Gold market is bleeding. In the coming years, the smart money will swoop in and scoop up large amounts of Gold for next to nothing and then laugh all the way to the bank. If you have extra funds, use the dips to add to your position, especially in Silver bullion.

Gold price trend analysis: Update Jan 2020

Central bankers and their friends never run scared; they slide away with boatloads of cash, waiting for the next opportunity to separate the masses from their wealth. The Gold Price outlook for 2019 is still bullish, but investors should not get carried away; bitcoin has still done what gold will probably never achieve within the next 15 years, if not longer, in terms of price gains. Market Update Oct 30 2019

The monthly charts show a bullish MACD crossover, signalling a mildly positive trend for Gold. If Gold can close above 1500, we could see a test of the 1800 ranges with a possible overshoot to 1920. While Silver may lag initially, it will likely outperform Gold Bullion in percentage terms once the action heats up in the Gold markets. Currently, the pattern is more potent for Bitcoin than Gold, but this could change rapidly.

Bitcoin investors may want to wait for a pullback in the short term before deploying new capital. Unfortunately, the majority still prefers paper money to Gold. Until this changes and the crowd embraces the Gold bull market, the mother of all crashes will have to wait. We find it amusing that some believe the Fed is running scared; if having millions or billions of dollars socked away is considered running scared, many people would love to join that camp.

Building Momentum?

On the weekly charts, Gold is now trending upwards (price action-wise); the regression channels (three blue lines on the top of the chart) are trending upwards, so this indicates that the current pullback is corrective and that Gold is gearing up for the next upward leg. Market Update Nov 25, 2019

Gold is expected to test its old highs in the $1800 to 1860 ranges with a possible overshoot from 1990 to 2040 before pulling back firmly.

The coronavirus pandemic will make the USD the most desired currency in the world, and after the panic subsides, gold is expected to let out a nice dose of steam. Silver is expected to mount a sudden rally towards the tail end of the Gold rally. Hence, when Gold takes out 1800, Silver will likely gain traction and trade as high as 45 before correcting.

Gold price trend analysis For 2023

As we enter 2023, gold is once again proving to be a valuable investment option amid a backdrop of inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties. Even though gold has been around for centuries, its relevance has not diminished, and it continues to be regarded as a safe haven asset for investors.

From a technical perspective, the monthly MACD crossover is signalling a positive trend for gold, indicating that the market is primed for an upward move. However, for this trend to continue, gold will need to break above its resistance level of 1960 on a monthly basis, paving the way for a potential rally towards the 2400-2700 range.

While silver is currently lagging behind gold, it has historically outperformed gold bullion in percentage terms, making it a potentially lucrative option for investors once gold starts to pick up steam.

Regarding gold stocks, two exciting plays to consider are GFI and DRD. While DRD is a bit more volatile and carries some risk, it could be an excellent long-term play for those willing to take on more risk.

Staying ahead of the Curve

Beyond the technical factors, geopolitical uncertainties such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the possibility of a Chinese attack on Taiwan also contribute to the positive outlook for gold. Additionally, with the US dollar expected to hit a long-term top, gold could be an attractive alternative investment for those seeking to diversify their portfolios.

Gold offers a valuable investment option for investors looking to hedge against market uncertainties and potential economic downturns. By staying informed on the technical, geopolitical, and macroeconomic factors influencing the gold market, investors can position themselves for possible gains in the years to come.

Research

“Why central banks are buying more gold than ever” (World Gold Council, 2021): https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2021/06/why-central-banks-are-buying-more-gold-ever
“Central Banks Keep Buying Gold as a Hedge Against Increased Volatility” (Fortune, 2021): https://fortune.com/2021/02/25/central-banks-buying-gold-volatility-hedge-inflation/
“Central banks bought more gold in 2019 than any time since the 1960s – and 2020 could be even bigger” (MarketWatch, 2020): https://www.marketwatch.com/story/central-banks-bought-more-gold-in-2019-than-anytime-since-the-1960s-and-2020-could-be-even-bigger-2020-01-31
“Central banks add to gold reserves as diversification continues” (World Gold Council, 2021): https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2021/01/central-banks-add-gold-reserves-diversification-continues

Gold price trend analysis: Critical Juncture