Trading Chart Patterns: A look At specific patterns across several Markets
Trading Chart Patterns: A look At Several Markets

Trading Chart Patterns: A look At Several Markets

Trading Chart Patterns

Extracted from Market Update  March 5th 2004

Euro Trading Chart Patterns

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Source: futures.tradingcharts.com/

Euro put in a double top, failed to break past 119, 118.5 is point to sell.

First, the easy target is 112.00

Second target 108 and the third target is 1.05

A very extreme target is .96  ( though I recommend taking profits in the 105-108 region, my first target has been hit already)

Euro Fundamentals

The fundamentals in the Euro have not changed much, still just as rotten as before, what happened was people were jumping from one rotten currency to one that was perceived to be less rotten. It would also be wise to go long the dollar in the .92 range while shorting the Euro. I expect the dollar to put in a multi-quarter high and it’s not inconceivable to see the dollar at 1.02 plus in the near future.

This would be mean that Gold should start to correct, the meteoric rise in Gold shares have been partly due to the fact that so much money left the bond markets that some of it had to filter into the gold and silver sector, is that this sector is so small a very slight change in money flow can have far-reaching effects. The fact that bullion has not made new highs supports this theory that it’s just money swishing around from one sector to the other in search of the next hot item after all Gold shares are still paper. Therefore it is highly likely that Gold and silver should consolidate soon this consolidation should extend well into October to early November.

Trading Chart Patterns Update 9/15/2003

The fact that Gold has reached 380 plus and has not pulled back seriously, means that the above scenario is likely to be delayed, it is now possible for Gold to challenge 400 and maybe even 420, but it would be doing it when all technical indicators and  Psychological indicators are extremely bullish (as a contrarian this is not a positive sign as the general public or the masses are never correct).

In addition, Gold is now in the extreme range of the esoteric cycles and as rule its not good to take long term positions when anything stock, commodity or any tradable instrument is in this region. So, for now, Gold is only traders play and we will hold onto positions only that were taken in  2000, Nov 2002 and March 2003 in our long term portfolio, any other positions that we might take will be very short term and will be done in our trading portfolio.

Trading Chart Patterns,  9/17/2003

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looking at the above chart it’s very easy to see that the Dow was moving up and down in terms of the Euro, just as it did in terms of the US dollar. However, fast forward to 2003 and basically you see that the Dow is flat, even though we have kept hitting new yearly highs, what this suggests that in terms of the Euro the Dow is stagnant and it is only moving in terms of the deflated US dollar.

The dollar dropped more than 30% against the Dow. Given that the Dow was around 7400 at its low, adding 30% to this gives a target of 9620 plus or minus a few hundred points. Unless the dollar keeps dropping the Dow should top in this region of 9600-9800. Which means the Euro should mount a  rally and then we can officially call this a new bull market, But, unlike any other bull market this will be a purely liquidity-driven one.

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This chart is self-explanatory, since 2000, the amount of silver and gold via the XAU index the Dow could buy has been dropping. We are now reaching an important crossroad and have just put in a triple bottom (the 100 mark area on the chart above), the only way to maintain this bottom is for the Dow to keep rallying along with XAU, should that line be violated and we break the 100 zones, then we could see significantly higher Gold prices, that line will be broken eventually, however, it would make sense for Gold and Silver to take a breather soon, before rallying again

Other Articles Of Interest

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The Coming Religious Wars (Aug 14)

FUN WITH FIAT(June 9)

Charts And Commentary (May 3)

A Day Late and A Dollar Short (April 15)

Who REALLY owns the Federal Reserve? (April 2)

The ethics and psychology of bear market investing(March 19)

The art of clipping coinage (Feb 18)

Inflations has some benefits. True or False? (Jan 21)

The Dawn of the Female warrior  (Jan 6)

Have Central Bankers Won The War Against Silver and Gold Bullion?(Dec 15)

Central Bankers attack on Free Markets  (Dec 12)

The Dow has never experienced a true bear Market  (Nov)

Has the True Gold Bull Began and the coming currency wars (Nov 26)

Gold is getting ready to take off   (Nov 15)

women investors better than men  (Oct 1)