Stock Market Predictions Today: Americans Fear The Market

Stock Market Predictions Today: Americans Fear The Market

Stock Market Predictions Today

Updated Aug 2023

We are going to discuss this topic against a historical backdrop for two reasons: first, those who learn from history don’t repeat the same mistakes, and second, to illustrate that we practice what we preach.

 

Why Are Americans Scared Of Investing?

The answer to this question is simple; focus on the wrong factors, such as news akin to gossip, political rhetoric, advice from experts (more like jackasses) and many other equally meaningless reasons.  Let’s look at some of these factors individually.  We will repeat this, but the key to all this is understanding the critical concepts of Mass Psychology, the most important of which is that one should never allow one’s emotions to do the talking.

From a psychological perspective, polarisation is a positive development as long as the trend is up.  When people are driven by emotions (especially people in power), they cannot think clearly, and their only ambition is to destroy their opponent.

When one cannot think clearly, one is destined to lose the war; it is just a matter of time. Those who can remain calm in such periods usually stand to walk away with the most significant gains.   Individuals from both parties will be going for the jugular, and some of these attacks will temporarily shock the markets. At the Tactical Investor, we embrace shock-type events (as long as the trend is up) and the stronger the deviation, the better the opportunity.

Focusing on the Fear Factor Will Always Lead To Losses

Therefore, do not focus on the fear factor, but try to direct your attention to the “opportunity factor” if another shock-type event hits the markets. The trend is up and showing no signs of weakening. Therefore we must treat anything the media attempts to market as a disaster, as an opportunity factor. The media is an extension of the mass mindset. You need at least two elements for any con: a con artist and many idiots.  An observer is not part of this equation, for he/she does not equate with the conman or the idiot; the observer function is to observe, and then use the data to plot the most favourable path.

Take this as an early warning that should the media jackasses start pushing another B.S story, instead of panicking, one should break out of a bottle of champagne, and as the masses panic, calmly sip on that champagne and build a list of solid stocks one always wanted to purchase. The option for those allergic to work is simple: sit back and relax, for we always view stock market crashes as opportune moments when the trend is positive.

The Crowd Is Still Too Anxious

Anxiety Index Indicator

Looking at the data above, the most compelling piece of information is the number of individuals in the neutral camp has not declined significantly, and when you combine the number of individuals in the bearish camp, the total still adds up to 62.  Thetoothless wonders” of the world still outnumber the bulls, which is a very bullish factor.  Let us not forget that the masses are still sitting on a vast pile of cash; they are waiting for better times to buy, having forgotten that the best time to buy just eclipsed them about a month ago. Why did they miss this opportunity to jump in and pick up stocks on the cheap? They were to busy focussing on Stock Market Predictions (today) being issued by silly so-called experts, who happen to repeat the same junk over and over again.

These intelligent men will once again buy close to the next stop and then wonder why their game plan did not lead to a positive outcome.   The best time to buy is when the masses are in panic mode, and when one feels far from certain about the future of the markets; certainty is the secret word for failure in the stock markets.

This bull market is unlike any other; before 2009, one could have relied on extensive technical studies to more or less call the top of a market give or take a few months; after 2009, the game plan changed and 99% of these traders/experts failed to factor this into the equation. Technical analysis as a standalone tool would not work as well as did before 2009 and in many cases would lead to a faulty conclusion.  Long story short, there are still too many people pessimistic (experts, your average Joes and everything in between) and until they start to embrace this market, most pullbacks ranging from mild to wild will falsely be mistaken for the big one.  Market Update Feb 28, 2019

Never Allow Fear To Take Over

One should remember this paragraph every time the urge to panic rises; no bull market has ever ended on a note of fear or anxiety. Despite the media trying to create a new narrative to prove otherwise for the past several years, they have failed miserably, proving that news, in general, should either be treated as rubbish or viewed through a humorous lens.   Americans fear all the things they should not & embrace nonsense that they should ignore. Too many Americans focus on Stock Market Predictions Today instead of examining the long-term trend.  It’s the trend that matters; the rest is all noise.

Random Views on Why Americans Are Scared Of Investing

Millennials are afraid to invest in the stock market

“New survey data suggests the ‘Someday Scaries’ could be” a factor holding young people back, Ally reports. About 61 percent of adults say they find investing in the stock market “scary or intimidating.” And millennials feel significantly more intimidated than Baby Boomers or those in Generation X, it says.

“The way to mitigate risk is through diversification. Investors should look at investing offers that provide a diversified portfolio with a balance based on their overall investing goals. In general, a portfolio that contains a variety of ETFs, bonds and cash is a great place to start,” he says.

“Start with a savings account that will give you a competitive rate of return and pay yourself first by putting whatever you can, even if it’s just a small amount, from each paycheck into that savings account.

“History has proven again and again that the key to achieving financial security is to start saving and investing early,” he says. “What people need most is to face the ‘Someday Scaries’ head on and get started, taking one small step at a time.” Full Story

Exciting readEconomy: Exploring Different Economic Systems

People Are Still Scared of Investing

Only 4 in 10 Americans and 1 in 3 Millennials have money in the stock market. The most common justification – that those who don’t invest don’t have the money – doesn’t cover all the bases.

What governs the behaviour of those who have the money and choose not to invest in fear.

To a seasoned market participant, the fact that everyone with the means to invest doesn’t invest is baffling, but the implications are far direr than just missed opportunities.

Many Americans’ financial futures are uncertain, not because they don’t have the money, but because they don’t know what to do with it. Innovations and market events of the last decade haven’t dramatically improved financial literacy or investor confidence either. Full Story

Here’s why some Americans can’t invest in the market

Pay remains stagnant for the rest of us, with recent — and not precisely robust — nominal gains eroded by inflation. At the same time, life can feel increasingly unaffordable. Childcare is staggeringly expensive, while the percentage of Americans with employer-provided health insurance who need to meet a four-figure deductible is rising rapidly, no doubt a factor in why one out of three campaigns on the depressingly omnipresent GoFundMe is related to medical fundraisers.

Four out of ten people say they couldn’t come up with $400 in an emergency. Consumer sentiment is declining even as retail sales increase. New business formation is plummeting dramatically, and the government safety net continues deteriorating.

Finally, too many people are dependent on the markets for their retirement. Few workers outside of government employees currently have access to pensions, resulting in their reliance on 401(k)s and Individual Retirement Accounts to attempt to provide for their post-work lives.

The money in these accounts is primarily invested in the stock market. Even if the amounts in question are not precisely substantial (half of those invested in the stock market have a total sum of $40,000 or less invested), it is enough to create a palpable sense of fear among many whenever the stock market indexes decline — a “heads I don’t win, tails I lose” situation.  Full Story

Americans’ Fear of Investing: A Look at the Numbers

More than one in three Americans surveyed express fear when it comes to investing, according to a recent survey conducted by CreditDonkey.com. Notably, 43% of the female participants in the survey admitted to being apprehensive about investing in the stock market, while 31% of their male counterparts shared the same sentiment.

Fear, often stemming from uncertain outcomes, can deter individuals from pursuing potentially rewarding opportunities. The survey, which gathered insights from over 1,200 Americans, revealed that 46% of respondents are afraid of death, demonstrating how fear can manifest in various aspects of life. Furthermore, 37% of those surveyed expressed fear, specifically in the context of investing in the stock market.

Interestingly, a significant % of respondents, totalling 73%, perceive investing in the stock market as akin to gambling. Additionally, 31% of participants believe that the stock market is rigged.

One respondent provided the perspective that investing is “rarely profitable,” drawing a parallel to the slim odds of profiting from a lottery ticket. Another respondent said the market is “rigged to benefit those already in power, the elite 1%.”

These survey findings shed light on many Americans’ complex relationship with investing, characterized by fear and scepticism regarding its potential benefits. ”  Full Story

Today’s stock market predictions do not matter if you follow the trend and ignore the noise, as the trend is all that matters; the rest is irrelevant.

 

Concluding thoughts on stock market predictions today

When it comes to an understanding the dynamics of the stock market, especially in the context of Stock Market Predictions Today, it’s crucial to take a historical perspective. Learning from the past helps us avoid repeating mistakes. Many investors often focus on the wrong factors, like sensational news, political rhetoric, or expert advice that may not always be reliable.

Mass psychology plays a vital role, emphasizing the importance of not letting emotions dictate investment decisions. Staying calm and rational can lead to significant gains in times of emotional turmoil. Shock-type events can present excellent opportunities as long as the overall trend is upward.

Instead of succumbing to fear when the media amplifies negative narratives, view such moments as chances to acquire solid stocks at lower prices. The key is not to get swayed by media sensationalism but to focus on the long-term trend, which ultimately matters more than short-term predictions.

Moreover, the data suggests that many individuals remain apprehensive about investing, driven by fear and uncertainty. However, this fear should not deter potential investors. Diversification is a strategy to mitigate risk, and starting early with savings and investments is crucial for financial security.

In this ever-evolving market, traditional technical analysis may not be as effective as before, and pessimism among experts and the general public can create false alarms. The bottom line is that bull markets typically don’t end in fear or anxiety, despite what the media might suggest. It’s essential to stay focused on the trend and ignore the noise, as the trend is what truly matters in the world of Stock Market Predictions Today.

Originally Published on March 9, 2019, updated August 2023

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