Brexit Will Hit Euro Economic Growth

ECB Survey States Brexit Will Hit Euro Economic Growth

Editor: Vladimir Bajic | Tactical Investor

Brexit Will Hit Euro Economic Growth

A no-deal Brexit will slice almost 3% from the UK economic growth over the next three years compared with just 0.6% from the rest of the EU, according to the latest health check of the global economy by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Amid concerns that all developed countries will experience slower growth next year, the Paris-based club for the world’s 35 richest states warned that the UK would take the biggest hit if the government failed to secure an agreement with the EU.

OECD analysis estimates that losing unfettered access to EU markets after 31 October will probably plunge the UK into recession next year. The loss of trade, investment and technical knowledge plus a further fall in the pound will prolong Britain’s growth rate until at least 2022.

“The concern is that with high levels of uncertainty going on for so long that we run the risk of low levels of trade and investment becoming entrenched. And that would leave countries even more exposed to a financial shock,” she said. Full story

Brexit Will Hit Euro Economic Growth

For the 100 years before the financial crisis, output per worker grew by about 2% a year on average but since 2010 it has slowed to 0.5% a year. Had it continued to grow at its former rate, the economy would be about 20% bigger than it currently is.

The UK’s growth rate since it joined what was then the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1973 has been slower than it was in the decades preceding entry. What’s more, that growth has been concentrated in one corner of the economy, London and the south-east.

Brexit day finds the mood among much of UK business remarkably chipper – and certainly a lot more upbeat than it was throughout 2019 when a lack of clarity over Brexit led to investment plans being mothballed Full Story

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