Gold price trends: Ready to Rumble or?
Updated Dec 2022
This is what we said back in 2013, so how have things changed over the years?
From a relative strength basis, treasuries are stronger than this sector, indicating that a breakout to new highs will not occur anytime soon. The markets in the commodity sector will experience counter-rallies, but in general, it is doubtful that any of these sectors will rally to new highs until a longer-term bottom is in place; for this to occur, the respective sectors would need weekly and daily buys signals. Market update March 31, 2013
The sudden intensity of the decline was quite sharp and surprised many investors. Although we anticipated lower prices, we did not expect such a significant plunge to occur in a single day. This abrupt downward move indicates that Gold may trade below 1300 before reaching a long-term bottom. Some may claim that the bull market is over, but this is far from the truth. Every strong bull market undergoes a back-breaking moment, and Gold is no exception. We expect prices to double from the eventual low, with a minimum of 2400 if the low is 1200. We believe that prices could surge beyond 3000.
The precious metals sector and essential commodities will dominate the news in the years to come as inflation becomes more prevalent. Although we recently noted that the current noise about inflation is overblown and that the dollar will continue to rise before eventually dropping and setting new all-time lows.
Asians remain bullish on gold, and Indian housewives see this as a buying opportunity, indicating that we may have one more down leg before reaching a bottom. Gold could rally to 1500, with former support turning into resistance before breaking down again.
Gold price trends: April 2020 Update
Gold is projected to test its old highs in the range of $1800 to $1860, with a possible overshoot to as high as $1990 to $2040 before experiencing a significant pullback. Following the coronavirus pandemic, the USD is likely to become the most desirable currency globally, and as the panic subsides, gold is expected to release some steam. As the Gold rally nears its end, Silver is predicted to experience a sudden surge. Therefore, when Gold breaks past $1800, Silver is expected to gain traction and could trade as high as $45 before correcting.
Research
- “Central banks snap up gold amid uncertainty” (Reuters, 2021): https://www.reuters.com/article/centralbanks-gold/central-banks-snap-up-gold-amid-uncertainty-idUSL1N2KU22L
- “Central Banks Are Buying More Gold Than Ever Before” (Bloomberg, 2020): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-12/central-banks-are-buying-more-gold-than-ever-before
- “Why central banks are buying more gold than ever” (World Gold Council, 2021): https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2021/06/why-central-banks-are-buying-more-gold-ever
- “Central Banks Keep Buying Gold as a Hedge Against Increased Volatility” (Fortune, 2021): https://fortune.com/2021/02/25/central-banks-buying-gold-volatility-hedge-inflation/
- “Central banks bought more gold in 2019 than any time since the 1960s – and 2020 could be even bigger” (MarketWatch, 2020): https://www.marketwatch.com/story/central-banks-bought-more-gold-in-2019-than-anytime-since-the-1960s-and-2020-could-be-even-bigger-2020-01-31
- “Central banks add to gold reserves as diversification continues” (World Gold Council, 2021): https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2021/01/central-banks-add-gold-reserves-diversification-continues
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