May 28, 2026 In theory, policymakers can absolutely try to recreate some version of the post-2008 liquidity system. The Federal Reserve can create reserves again, the Treasury can issue enormous quantities of debt again, and banks can still absorb Treasuries if conditions allow. Operationally, none of that is especially mysterious. Central banks understand the mechanics … Read more
How the Fed Can Still Suppress Interest Rates May 27, 2026 In pure mechanical terms, something close to the old post-2008 system can absolutely be rebuilt. Policymakers still possess the operational tools. The Treasury can issue enormous quantities of debt, banks can absorb that debt, and the Federal Reserve can provide liquidity support while suppressing … Read more
May 25, 2026 There’s an old joke on Wall Street: if you want to know what most retail investors are doing, just check what they wish they hadn’t done six months ago. It sounds harsh, but after watching markets for decades, the pattern is almost too predictable. People buy when everyone else is buying, sell … Read more
May 22, 2026 There’s a strange thing that happens every time the word “recession” hits the headlines. Otherwise rational people, the kind who carefully compare grocery prices and refuse to pay full price for a sweater, suddenly rush to sell perfectly good stocks at a 30% discount. It’s one of the great ironies of … Read more
May 21, 2026 The lazy comparison says today is safer because valuations look lower on the surface. During the dot-com era, median PEs in many technology names pushed toward absurd territory, roughly 150 or higher in some cases, while today many of the dominant AI leaders trade closer to 35–45 times earnings. On paper that … Read more
May 20, 2026 One thing investors need to separate clearly is the difference between a weak country and a mispriced equity market. Indonesia is not behaving like a collapsing frontier economy held together with tape and slogans. The macro data simply does not support that narrative. GDP growth remains resilient, the banking structure is relatively … Read more
May 19, 2026 Markets often struggle most with companies caught between two phases. They understand stable growth stories. They understand collapsing businesses. What they dislike are transition periods where the assets remain strong but the timing, execution, and sequencing become difficult to model. That is increasingly the situation surrounding PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk. Why … Read more
May 18, 2026 There’s an uncomfortable joke that gets passed around trading desks: “Retail is always early to the party and late to the exit.” It’s not a kind joke. It’s not entirely fair, either. But it persists for a reason — because the pattern of how retail investors get trapped has been so consistent … Read more
May 18, 2026 Every market has a mood ring, and ours is called the VIX — the so-called “fear gauge.” It measures how much volatility traders expect in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, derived from the prices people are paying for options. When the number is low, the crowd is calm. When … Read more
May 18, 2026 Technically the chart does look damaged in the short term (look below), but damaged and structurally broken are two very different things, and markets constantly confuse the two, especially after sharp reactions tied to expectations that had already become too optimistic. What stands out immediately is that the selloff was violent relative … Read more
