Excerpts From Past Market Update 2002-2004
The Dow is in the top of its cyclic range. It’s possible that the Dow could spike to 9700 but most likely it will test the 9680 area and then start to correct.
1st target 9600 2nd target 9550, extreme downside targets 9450.
After which it should begin to re bound, these targets are based on hourly cycles, and have nothing to do with longer-term analysis. Mkt update Sept 21. 2003
All downside targets were hit and surpassed
The news, the outlook and the prognosis is dire as far as one can see, the further you look the worse the situation appears to be and there appears to be no relief in sight
1) Unemployment getting worse, and no sign of it getting better plus no one has any idea when things will turnaround, the statistics are full of lies we lost over 100K jobs so far, and the unemployment rate is still 5.8%, hum I would like to lose 1 million dollars and still be worth 2 million ( If I was worth 2 million before I lost the 1 million)
2) Snow the New guy in charge will either melt away soon or help create a blizzard of money soon, he is seeking to
raise the debt ceiling, and it will be raised, sooner than later
3) This war is going to cost more than the lying pathetic figure of 80 billion that they have quoted so far, by the way 9 billion from there is ear marked for Israel for what I have no idea they do nothing for us but suck money from us each and every year(this money could be used to help Americans who are hurting really badly due to this economic slump we have here back home), 8.5 billion is going to Turkey because they needed to bribe the hell out of them just to be able to use their airspace. It was estimated that the cost of sitting in the desert doing nothing but hunting for rats would be 10 billion a month, now that they are firing away at anything that moves, and are sending in another 120K troops, with bombs costing in excess of $600K each, we will eat through this budget like a hot knife through butter, hence more printing.
4) Unemployment is going to keep going up and I am sure they will keep extending benefits which cost money and mysteriously the percentage, of unemployed won’t move, in parts of Long Island, which is close to New York
city the unemployment is over 10%, before the economic down turn here, getting a job was rather easy.
5) All the tax cuts, another burden
6) The biggest increase in military spending ever and this was before the war began
7) Every major company saying they can’t see any rays of light
8) Huge derivative situation waiting to possibly explode
9) The huge pension under funding reality that is going to suck profits from all companies
10) The huge deficits that all states are experiencing and now wait for the big news, the government eventually defaulting on their bonds, well I should say the states, they are broke, The people’s republic of California has the biggest budget deficit, its deficit is so big that is almost bigger than all the state deficits put together.
11) In most trading shops, a 2% loss of their total derivative portfolio is considered to be normal. For JP-Morgan, a 2% loss is equivalent to their assets
So what am I getting at, well get ready for the PPT to really come out swinging full force sometime soon, they will attack so hard, that they will create the impression that we are in a new bull mkt, it will be the repeat of the last crash, we had a bull run up when we crashed last time in 1929 that brought the averages almost on par to their old highs, then they plunged like rocks.
Well sometime in the near future this will happen again here and you will be tempted to think that we are back in a raging bull market, the only thing you will be in is a raging market full of BS, off course we aim to take advantage of this situation when it does occur, because there will be some serious money to be made here.
Question is what will Gold do, it will also take off, this is my guess of how things will play out, we will probably get a rally in the gold mkt shortly, that will occur with the equity rally, then while the Gold market carries on roaring we will get a nice healthy pull back or should I say a nice fake healthy pull back, at which time gold should be making its peak, then while gold pulls back the indexes should roar to new highs and its possible that we finish this year up, that’s how things are looking so far with the data that I have now. Market update April 6, 2003
This outlook came to pass
When it comes to Gold I have no problems going for the Jugular, right now it looks like we are on the blood donating side, and our jugular has almost been slashed when it comes to gold, but a turn around is close at hand, you might be tempted to say, Hey Sol how the hell do you know this?
Well look at today, bullion dropped over 5 dollars and gold stocks hardly budged, at leas the strong ones hardly moved, RANGY, GOLD, LIHRY, GSS, CDE, KGC, IAG, GLG, ETC , in fact the funny thing is that many of them closed up or unchanged, this is a positive divergence, very important, it shows you that Gold stocks have discounted the worst news and are leading the way, last time they lead the way down, they started to drop even when bullion was making new highs, so just remember good times are very close at hand. Mkt update April 11, 2003
I have said it again and I will say it again and again, the single best investment for the next decade is Gold, if you don’t have any bullion or Gold shares now is the time to start loading up, everyone hates the Gold sector, load up now, don’t buy when the sector is loved, that will be the time to sell. Make sure you have 50% of your investing portfolio in long term Gold positions. Market Update Nov 2002
Those that followed this advice looked in spectacular gains when we closed our positions out in 2011 right at the top of the Gold Bull.
GOLD
I had sent out gold entry prices many times on gold stocks, on march 16 I even sent out a review list of our positions many of the stocks that had made new lows, revisited those lows once more look now where the stocks were and now are, the prices below are the ones from the march 16 update. Many of the stocks hit the screaming buy targets and went even lower which made them unbelievable buys. If you look at the stocks that I have labeled as being the strongest ones, they made their lows long ago when bullion was at a much higher price and are now rising, a Positive divergence which is bullish. Market Update march 16 2003
Quick review of our stocks right now.
Don’t buy these stocks now, the entry points have long since been surpassed.
| Stock | Normal Entry | Mouth Watering Entry | Screaming buy | Lowest Price | Current Price |
| GSS | Hit | X | X | 1.44 | 1.70 |
| KGC | Hit | Hit | Hit | 5.66 | 6.18 |
| GFI | Hit | Hit | Hit | 10.45 | 10.80 |
| RIC | Hit | Hit | Hit | 2.95 | 3.31 |
| RANGY | Hit | Hit | 8.20 | 9.16 | |
| GOLD | Hit | Hit | 9.55 | 11.98 | |
| GG | Hit | Hit | 9.64 | 10.36 | |
| GLG | Hit | Hit | 8.45 | 9.85 | |
| VGZ | Hit | Hit | 2.80 | 3.46 | |
| LIHRY | X | X | X | 15.80 | 16.75 |
| IAG | Hit | Hit | Hit | 3.82 | 4.25 |
| CDE | Hit | Hit | Hit | 1.10 | 1.34 |
RGLD I sent out a warning to wait on this one after the bad news hit. Its forming a channel and soon we will add the stock.( X denotes price was not hit)
The top guys here based on Standard deviation analysis, regression analysis, and few other TA tools and my own systems are in order of strength
RANGY,GOLD,GSS,IAG,GLG,KGC, LIHRY.
Speculative stocks that look very good are
CDE( top silver play),MNG, CUSIF. mkt update march 2003
Currencies
As mentioned we were expecting a technical rally in the Dollar and we currently have one, once again we are glad that luck is on our side to have made that prediction a reality from a high of 119 the Euro hit a low of 114 something, we still believe it is possible for the Euro to get down to 112, though we would not put all are eggs in one basket waiting for that target to be hit. Market Update June 25,2003
Special note for those of you that have not bought any bullion yet and are looking to buy some, this would be a good time to start nibbling as the prices are about 25 dollars lower than just a few weeks ago and the dollar is still weak and not going to get any stronger. Market Update June 25.2003
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